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Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's matinee main slate features an enticing eight-game mix. There is some inclement weather regarding several games around the league, so checking in with your preferred meteorologist will be essential. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 5/7/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Joe Ryan, MIN vs. CLE ($10,000 DK, $11,000 FD)
Ryan is quietly establishing himself as an ace in this league. Through six starts he owns a 2.50 xERA, alongside similarly impressive numbers, like a .248 xwOBA, .212 xBA, .311 xSLG, 4.2% walk rate, 3.16 xFIP, and 4.3% barrel rate. Ryan has pitched at least six innings in each of his outings this year and has posted a quality start in all but one of them – four earned runs over six innings against Houston. The consistency is encouraging, but what we love most about Ryan is his 30.1% strikeout rate. Between it all, Ryan is a reliable floor play – he's scored at least 24.5 DK points in five of six appearances.
His opponent today is the Guardians. Cleveland's offense is off to a sluggish start to 2023, scoring only 3.6 runs per game on the year. They are particularly bad against right-handed pitchers, whom they carry a .633 OPS, .103 ISO, and 77 wRC+ against. Jose Ramirez is always an obstacle, but Ryan is more than capable of cruising through the rest of Cleveland's slumping lineup.
Ryan may not offer the same ceiling as Gerrit Cole, but with price and matchup as considerations, he's the most ideal combination of stability and upside. Expect Ryan to be a chalk play on today's otherwise uncertain pitching slate.
Mason Miller, OAK vs. KC ($7,400 DK, $7,700 FD)
Transitioning away from stability and into volatility, Mason Miller is an interesting tournament play today. He carries a 3.52 ERA through his first three career starts, and the results have been a mixed bag. Most recently, Miller tossed seven no-hit innings against the Mariners, including four walks and ten strikeouts. It was the first time making it through five frames for the heralded prospect and may be indicative of an incoming trend of dominance. In his limited service time, Miller sports an impressive 3.17 xERA, .278 xwOBA, .198 xBA, .302 xSLG, and a 2.8% barrel rate. He also owns a 28.3% strikeout rate, which his supporting minor league numbers suggest has an even higher ceiling.
Miller will take on the Kansas City Royals today. Their lineup scores just 3.8 runs per game for the season and presents a particularly beneficial matchup for Miller. The Royals carry a .648 OPS against right-handed pitchers, including a 24.9% strikeout rate, 75 wRC+, and a 6.8% walk rate – the lowest mark in the majors. That's good news for Miller, whose 10% walk rate has been one of the few flaws in his game so far.
There's plenty of reason to believe Miller can thrive in this matchup, but don't be blindsided if the inexperienced pitcher showcases some growing pains. For the price and ceiling, Miller is absolutely worth a shot on this slate.
Also consider: Gerrit Cole, Sandy Alcantara, Joey Lucchesi
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Joey Gallo – 1B/OF, MIN vs. Cal Quantrill ($4,200 DK, $3,300 FD)
Gallo has cooled off somewhat since his torrid start to the campaign, but his overall power numbers remain elite. He ranks in the top percentile with a 68.3% hard-hit rate and 96.9 MPH average exit velocity, alongside a similarly impressive .594 xSLG, .386 xwOBA, and 24.4% barrel rate. Gallo won't hit for average, and he whiffs at a bloated 35% rate, but when he does make contact, it's going a long way.
Fortunately for Gallo, his opponent ranks in the bottom percentile among all pitchers with a 13.1% whiff rate. Cal Quantrill doesn't miss bats, and that makes him a perfect pairing for Gallo's skillset. Further, Quantrill is getting handled by opposing hitters this season, carrying a 5.68 xERA, 5.42 xFIP, .507 xSLG, and .363 xwOBA.
Javier Baez – SS, DET vs. Steven Matz ($3,400 DK, $2,800 FD)
Skepticism has surrounded Baez for some time now, but lately, he's looked as good as he ever has in a Tigers uniform. Since the beginning of May, Baez owns a .429/.529/.1.071 slash line, including three home runs. His batted-ball profile isn't as elite as it once was, but miraculously, Baez is only striking out at a 17.2% rate in 2023 – a remarkable improvement from his 27.5% career mark. Further, Baez has a longstanding preference for left-handed pitching, carrying a career .532 slugging percentage and .239 ISO against southpaws.
Steven Matz presents a great opportunity for Baez. Right-handed batters are slugging .524 against him with a .402 wOBA through his first six starts. He's surrendered at least one home run in all except one of his outings in 2023, and Baez is as equipped as any in the Tigers lineup to take advantage.
Brett Baty – 3B, NYM vs. Ryan Feltner ($2,800 DK, $2,800 FD)
The Mets No. 2 ranked prospect is hitting his stride in the big leagues. Through 15 games this season, Baty carries a .319/.385/.511 slash line, including two home runs. He dominated in the minors, showcasing his 60-grade power and 60-grade hit tool, so the success is no surprise. I don't anticipate Baty's price holding this low all season, so roster him for cheap while you can.
Ryan Feltner doesn't pose a particularly difficult matchup for Baty. Left-handed hitters are slugging .422 against him with a .335 wOBA during his three-season career. Feltner has kept bats relatively quiet so far this season, but a 5.13 xFIP against lefties uncovers hidden volatility.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Masataka Yoshida – OF, BOS vs. Taijuan Walker ($5,100 DK, $3,700 FD)
Yoshida carries a 15-game hit streak into today. He's one of the hottest batters in all of baseball right now, and I want in on it. Overall, Yoshida sports a .315/.400/.537 slash line, including six home runs and six doubles. He's been particularly excellent against right-handed pitchers, with a .582 slugging percentage and .253 ISO.
On the flip side, Taijuan Walker is having a terrible season so far, getting brutalized by players on all sides of the plate. He sports a 5.32 xERA, 4.45 xFIP, .352 xwOBA, and .456 xSLG. Yoshida is one of several Red Sox hitters on my radar today.
Brandon Marsh – OF, PHI vs. Tanner Houck ($4,400 DK, $3,100 FD)
Marsh flies under the radar compared to other big names in the Phillies lineup, but he has debatably been their most consistent hitter this season. He carries a .326/.418/.611 slash line, including four home runs, seven doubles, and a league-leading four triples. Marsh strikes out at an alarming rate, but with metrics like a 46.8% hard-hit rate, 91.9 MPH average exit velocity, and 11.3% barrel rate, the upside remains strong.
Tanner Houck has flashes of brilliance, but left-handed hitters have been a real problem for him. Lefties are slugging .523 against him with four home runs this season.
Brent Rooker – OF, OAK vs. Ryan Yarbrough ($3,800 DK, $4,000 FD)
Rooker's breakout campaign continues. He's up to ten home runs with a .333/.442/.726 slash line and 230 OPS+ this season. Additionally, Rooker ranks in the 98th percentile or better with each of his .639 xSLG, .447 xwOBA, and a 22.2% barrel rate. If you haven't already, now is the time to buy in on Brent Rooker.
Ryan Yarbrough won't be much of a roadblock for the Rooker train. He 6.33 xERA, 6.10 xFIP, and other similarly awful metrics -- .481 xSLG, .298 xBA, .379 xwOBA, and 8.7% barrel rate.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Oakland Athletics vs. Ryan Yarbrough
It feels as though we've entered an alternate reality; the Oakland hitters have been chalky in recent days. The worst part is that it's justified. Brent Rooker is a home run threat every time he steps into the box, Esteury Ruiz is capable of stealing multiple bases every game, and there's been production throughout the lineup lately.
The main reason for Oakland's recent popularity is Kansas City's weak pitching. Today Ryan Yarbrough takes the mound. His struggles are highlighted above – 6.33 xERA, 6.10 xFIP. Further, the Royals' 5.66 bullpen ERA is the fourth-worst mark in the league. Oakland will be a fantastic source of full stacks, mini stacks, and one-offs. The best part is how cheap it is to fit Athletics into your lineup.
Favorite Plays: Brent Rooker, Esteury Ruiz, Ramon Laureano, Shea Langeliers
Boston Red Sox vs. Taijuan Walker
The Red Sox are averaging a blistering 5.9 runs per game this season. They rank third in the majors with a .822 OPS against right-handed hitters, including a .196 ISO, .355 wOBA, and 121 wRC+. Boston also offers a nice mix of premium, midrange, and cheap plays to make stacking batters very accessible.
Boston will square off against Taijuan Walker, who is having the worst campaign of his career thus far. His struggles are discussed above. Going further, the Phillies' bullpen carries a 5.42 combined ERA, the fifth-worst mark in the league. Adding in the benefit of a hitter-friendly ballpark, I anticipate Boston going off in this game.
Favorite Plays: Masataka Yoshida, Rafael Devers, Alex Verdugo, Jarren Duran
Also Consider: St. Louis Cardinals, Minnesota Twins, Philadelphia Phillies
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