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Jamie's DraftKings NFL DFS Week 16 picks, value plays, DFS sleepers for the main slate (2025). His top DK plays and value picks for daily fantasy football lineups.
If you're still in the fantasy playoffs, congrats! I will be joining our RotoBaller spaces again this Sunday at 11:30 EST with Tipp Major, Scott Engel, and Greg Kellogg to help make those difficult lineup decisions (and maybe net you some extra holiday cash). Speaking of cash, the Week 16 DFS slate looks like a fun one, so let's dive in.
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The name of the game this week is cheap QBs. We've had some changes thanks to both injuries and benchings, and as a result, we'll see Gardner Minshew II and Quinn Ewers both make their first starts of the season. Are their cheap tags enough to justify? I think they are, but it's important to build around them the correct way.
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 16 DFS Picks
TOP PLAY
Bo Nix, DEN vs JAX ($6,100)
Winners of 11 consecutive games, Denver now hosts the up-and-coming Jaguars in one of the higher-totaled games (47.5). Bo Nix's game log has been rather boom-or-bust this year, but there is much more room for the boom in this game. Jacksonville's front line is much improved, but they're still highly vulnerable on the back end.
The Jags have allowed the sixth-highest YPA this season, along with the ninth-most FPPG to opposing QBs. Nix has thrown 34, 38, 45, and 37 passes over the past four and has averaged over 8.0 YPA in that span. He has QB1 overall upside in this matchup.
VALUE PLAY
C.J. Stroud, HOU vs LV ($5,500)
Most of the field will be gravitating to the cheap QBs on this slate, which looks like a strong strategy given the opportunity cost at the position. C.J Stroud has upside concerns for GPPs since the Texans' defense likely controls this game from start to finish, but he looks like a really high-floor play for cash contests.
The Texans' turnaround has been remarkable. It's primarily thanks to the defense, but Stroud has been highly efficient over the last three games as well. He averaged 9.0 YPA in their recent win over the Cardinals and threw three TD passes. The Raiders have allowed the eighth-highest passer rating and rank in the bottom five in pressure rate despite having Maxx Crosby.
Other options - Justin Herbert, Jacoby Brissett, Gardner Minshew II, Quinn Ewers
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 16 DFS Picks
TOP PLAY
Jahmyr Gibbs, DET vs PIT ($8,500)
Over the past six weeks, Jahmyr Gibbs has finished RB2, RB13, RB1, RB32, RB1, and RB38. So, according to the laws of physics and fantasy football lore, he's set for a boom week, right?? (insert Will Ferrell "it's science" GIF anywhere here). OK, maybe that's not tangible data, but Gibbs' explosive run rate and massive target share are.
Pittsburgh's aggressive defense has allowed the 10th-fewest FPPG to RBs, but Gibbs should be featured in a critical game for the Lions. He's second in the league among RBs in TDs with 16, and also ranks third among the position in receptions and receiving yards. Despite getting bottled up by the Rams last week, Gibbs still had 17 touches and seven targets, and he's cheaper than his stud counterparts.
VALUE PLAY
Aaron Jones Sr., MIN @ NYG ($5,200)
Targeting the Giants with a running back has been a winning strategy all season long, and it even worked last week with beleaguered rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Aaron Jones shares a backfield with Jordan Mason, but each should find ways to have success against the Giants' squad that ranks dead last in rush defense.
Jones and Mason essentially split the carries down the middle against Dallas, but it was Jones who ran far more routes and received three targets to Mason's none. His $5,200 price tag bakes in far too much value for the split backfield, and Jones is one of the top values on the slate.
Other options - Bijan Robinson, James Cook III, Bucky Irving, Woody Marks
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DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 16 DFS Picks
TOP PLAY
Ja'Marr Chase, CIN @ MIA ($8,600)
The Bengals' season came to an end last week, which is too bad because it's always fun to see their high-octane offense featured in a playoff game (plus I lost my bet on them winning the AFC North). Ja'Marr Chase without Tee Higgins is something that almost seems foolish to pass up on at this point, though.
With Higgins on the shelf with a concussion, Chase went 10-132-0 on 16 targets. He achieved a ceiling game even in a contest where the Bengals didn't even score a point against the Ravens, which gives him as safe a floor as any. Miami's secondary has looked much better in the second half of the season, but Chase is matchup and game-script proof.
VALUE PLAY
DK Metcalf, PIT @ DET ($5,400)
DK Metcalf has more "busts" than "booms" on his game log this year, but this is a matchup where he should succeed. Furthermore, his price tag hasn't moved after playing Monday night against the Dolphins. He has run by far the most routes for Steelers' pass catchers, and this game's 51.5 O/U is the highest of the week.
Metcalf should have no issue separating from this Detroit secondary. The Lions have allowed the highest YPC and the most FPPG to WRs over the past six weeks, and have now allowed the second-most on the season. With Detroit continuing to jam up the run, expect a more pass-heavy approach for Pittsburgh, and Metcalf's price tag is solid.
Other options - Amon-Ra St. Brown, Michael Wilson, Jameson Williams, Justin Jefferson
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 16 DFS Picks
TOP PLAY
Trey McBride, ARI vs ATL ($7,600)
Last week, I wrote about someone other than Trey McBride in the "top play" position. Needless to say, I've...learned my lesson. McBride is inevitable and should be in this spot regardless. His price tag has also barely moved, which makes no sense after going 12-134-2 against one of the best defenses in the league.
The Falcons are a run-funnel team that has allowed the second-fewest FPPG to TEs, but it just doesn't matter with McBride. The Cardinals' TE has almost 100 more fantasy points this year than the TE2 (Travis Kelce), which really makes you appreciate exactly how far he is in a tier of his own. He leads the NFL in receptions. That's all receivers, not just TEs. He's well worth $7,600.
Trey McBride is the first TE in NFL history to have 100+ receptions in back-to-back seasons 📈@AZCardinals | #BirdGang pic.twitter.com/DsF4hAieLb
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VALUE PLAY
Kyle Pitts Sr., ATL @ ARI ($5,000)
If you are looking to save some money from McBride, look no further than the other side of the ball in this game. Kyle Pitts has FINALLY achieved the status that his stans have been hoping for. With Drake London on the shelf, Pitts has target shares of 23%, 25%, 33%, and 27%. He leads the Falcons in all relevant receiving categories from Kirk Cousins.
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Pitts' matchup is insane this week as well. Over the past six games, the Cardinals' defense has allowed 36.2 PPG and has also given up the eighth-most FPPG to opposing TEs. Keep an eye on London's status, as he's been practicing on a limited basis. If he does play, it would be hard to justify Pitts' price tag in cash games (still fire him up in GPPs regardless).
Other options - Travis Kelce, Harold Fannin Jr., Juwan Johnson
DraftKings D/ST - Week 16 DFS Picks
Top Five Defenses For Cash Games
- New York Jets ($2,100)
- Kansas City Chiefs ($3,300)
- Houston Texans ($4,000)
- Buffalo Bills ($3,500)
- New York Giants ($2,600)
Thanks for reading, and good luck in your contests this weekend!
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