X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Did Kevin Gausman Experience a Second-Half Breakout?

Jeff Kahntroff analyzes the fantasy impact of Orioles starter Kevin Gausman, including a review of his 2016 production.

Kevin Gausman improved his 5x5 stats immensely in the second half of 2016.

However, a player’s stat line for the year as a whole trumps a strong second half unless there is a clear reason otherwise. Two possibilities include overcoming an injury or a more favorable second half schedule.

This article will explore (1) whether Gausman’s 5x5 improvement in the second half was due to injury or schedule, or (2) whether the improvement was due to luck or something else, and (3) what that means for his 2017 stats.

Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.

 

Kevin Gausman - 2017 Fantasy Baseball Outlook

2016 Stats By Half

GS W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
1st Half 15 1-6 4.15 86.2 82 1.30
2nd Half 15 8-6 3.10 93.0 92 1.26

 
 
Was Gausman’s Improved Second Half Due to Injury Recovery or a More Favorable Schedule?

Gausman suffered a shoulder injury in spring training and missed the first few weeks of the season. However, his velocity actually decreased in the second half of the season, dispelling the notion that he grew stronger as he recovered in the second half.

Gausman did not face any teams in September mailing it in, with the possible exception of the Yankees on October 2. However, Gausman had the Yankees’ number all year (3-1, 1.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in six starts), which brings up another theory: did the fact that Gausman faced the Yankees four times in the second half as opposed to two in the first half account for the improvement? Below are his first and second half stats removing the Yankees’ games. Even removing the Yankees’ disparity, the ERA and WHIP gaps are about the same, with only a slight difference in K/9 gap. It does not appear the schedule was responsible for the improvement:

GS W-L ERA IP SO WHIP
1st Half 13 1-6 4.83 72.2 73 1.39
2nd Half 11 5-4 3.82 66.0 66 1.33

 
 
 
Was Gausman’s Improved Second Half Due to Luck and thus Not a Breakout at All?

(A)    Peripherals Suggest that Gausman was Simply Luckier in the Second Half

FIP Xfip K:BB K/9 BB/9 HR/9
1st Half 4.27 3.75 4.32 8.5 1.97 1.56
2nd Half 3.95 3.78 3.29 8.9 2.71 1.26

 

In the second half, Gausman went deeper into games, increased his strikeouts per nine, decreased his WHIP marginally, and significantly improved his ERA and win-loss record. However, his walks increased and his fielding independent pitching indicators improved slightly (FIP) or stayed nearly the same (xFIP). (FIP attempts to estimate ERA given average fielding, while xFIP also makes a pitcher’s HR/FB rate average). Thus, the second half “breakout” may merely be a slight improvement, as the peripherals suggest his big ERA drop is luck-related and a win-loss record could reflect the lowered ERA or good luck.

(B)    A Closer Looks Suggests a Change in Approach was the Actual Reason for Improvement

In the second half of 2016, Gausman threw at a lower velocity and traded off more walks for fewer hits and home runs, just as he did in 2014. This approach of lower velocity and nibbling (2014, second half of 2016) rather than throwing as hard as possible and seeing what happens (2013, 2015, first half of 2016) has led to Gausman allowing fewer runs. One major reason Gausman’s 2016 second half exceeded his 2014 numbers was that he threw more first pitch strikes, and he performs significantly better after a first pitch strike (career .819 ops after 1-0, but .620 ops after 0-1). Combine the first-pitch improvement with his K-rate increase for the third straight year, and we have our pitcher from the second half of 2016.

Importantly, FIP and xFIP would not have viewed this improved approach as an improvement, because those metrics penalize walks and xFIP assumes the lower HR rate is sheer luck. Moreover, Gausman pitched better with a lead in the second half than he had previously, which if due to a further improved mental approach, could lead to a better win-loss record in 2017. The main issue with basing 2017 projections off these theories is Gausman showed this approach in 2014, but appeared to abandon it in 2015 and the first half of 2016.

 

2017 Projection

For these reasons, I give Gausman a slight boost on his overall 2014 and 2016, but I do not accept the second half 2016 5x5 stats as the new normal until he continues down the path. I project him for a 3.45 era, 8.8k/9, a 1.25 WHIP with a 15-10 record. This projection is slightly lower than his 2014 and 2016 ERAs, but higher than 2016 second half, and reflects his increasing K rate.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake Burger

to Miss an Additional 2-3 Weeks
TreVeyon Henderson

Signs Rookie Contract
Christian Watson

Goes on PUP List
Austin Riley

Hopes to be Activated Next Week
Ketel Marte

Lands on Restricted List After Burglary
Ricky Pearsall

Heads to PUP List
Brandon Aiyuk

Placed on PUP List
Luther Burden III

Signs Rookie Deal
Washington Nationals

Eli Willits Expected to Sign Contract on Saturday
Grayson Rodriguez

Being Shut Down Again - Will We See Him Again This Year?
Ezequiel Tovar

Activated and Back in Lineup on Friday
Max Fried

"Hopeful" to Pitch Next Week - Looks Like He'll Avoid IL Stint
Steven Kwan

Receives Injection in Wrist, Considered Day-to-Day
CJ Abrams

Back to Start Second Half
Alec Bohm

Back From Rib Injury on Friday
Trey Hendrickson

Holdout to Spill into Regular Season?
Jalen McMillan

Bucs Offensive Coordinator Not Forgetting About Jalen McMillan
Levi Onwuzurike

to Miss at Least Four Games
Nick Emmanwori

Seahawks, Nick Emmanwori Reach Agreement on Rookie Deal
Max Holloway

Set For Main Event
Brandon Lowe

Back From 10-Day Injured List
Dustin Poirier

Set For His Final UFC Fight
Roman Kopylov

Set For Co-Main Event
Paulo Costa

Returns At UFC 318
Luis L. Ortiz

to Remain on Leave for Another Month - Will he Pitch Again?
Daniel Rodriguez

Looks For Third Win In A Row
Kevin Holland

Set For His Fourth Fight This Year
Dan Ige

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
MMA

Patricio Freire Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Zellhuber

Set To Open Up UFC 318 Main Card
Michael Johnson

Looks For Third Consecutive Win
Elijah Arroyo

Signs Rookie Deal
Jaydon Blue

Described as "Borderline Lazy"
T.J. Sanders

Bills Sign T.J. Sanders to Rookie Deal
Christian Wilkins

Raiders Put Christian Wilkins on PUP List
Jabari Small

Lions Add Jabari Small to Backfield
Quinshon Judkins

Remains Unsigned, Won't Report With Rest of Rookies
Mason Taylor

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Jets
Hendon Hooker

Leading Lions QB2 Battle Entering Training Camp
Ozzy Trapilo

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Bears
Tate Ratledge

Agrees to Rookie Contract with Lions
Jack Bech

Signs Rookie Contract with Raiders
Yegor Chinakhov

Requests Trade
Dakota Joshua

Maple Leafs Acquire Dakota Joshua
Lukas Dostal

Signs Five-Year Extension with Ducks
Shemar Stewart

Not Practicing With College Team
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Expected Back Friday
Damian Lillard

Returning to Portland
Paul Skenes

Pirates Could Preserve Paul Skenes in Second Half
Brooks Barnhizer

Grabs 19 Points, Nine Boards in Summer League Win
Jeremiah Fears

Scores 22 Points in Summer League Loss to Thunder
Isaiah Collier

Collects 17 Points In Summer League Win
Caleb Houstan

Joins Hawks
AJ Johnson

Erupts for 25 Points in Summer League Loss
Washington Wizards

Leaky Black Logs Double-Double in Loss to Jazz
Connor Norby

Undergoes Surgery, Expected to Miss 6-8 Weeks
Trey Alexander

Tallies 25 Points in Losing Effort
Johni Broome

Records Second Consecutive Double-Double
Jahmir Young

Has Historic Summer League Outing
Rob Dillingham

Plays Big Role in Wednesday's Win
Tyrese Proctor

Erupts for 35 Points Against Kings
Cody Williams

Leads Jazz to Victory Against Wizards
LeBron James

Mavs Not Interested in "Gutting its Roster" For LeBron James
Josh Hart

Undergoes a Procedure on Right Finger
Jake Burger

Goes on 10-Day Injured List With Quad Strain
Sal Frelick

Dealing With Grade 1 Hamstring Strain, TBD for Start of Second Half
Chris Sale

Plays Catch
Los Angeles Clippers

Bradley Beal Heading to Los Angeles to Join Clippers After Contract Buyout
Rayan Rupert

Scores 24 Points in Summer League Win
Derik Queen

Collects Third Consecutive Double-Double in Summer League Loss
GG Jackson II

Records 13 Points in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Johni Broome

Logs Double-Double Against Wizards
DaRon Holmes II

Records Double-Double in Summer League Loss to Raptors
Kyle Schwarber

Named All-Star Game MVP
Harris English

Takes Stellar 2025 Performance to The Open Championship
Aldrich Potgieter

Seeks Better Result in Northern Ireland
Cameron Young

Likely to Hang Around at The Open Championship
Cameron Smith

Just Trying to Make the Cut at Royal Portrush
Jordan Spieth

Is Jordan Spieth Still a Natural for Links Style Golf?
Patrick Reed

a Viable Option at The Open Championship
PGA

Sungjae Im Wants to Rebound from Last Experience at Royal Portrush
Xander Schauffele

Looks to Defend His Claret Jug at Royal Portrush
Tony Finau

Trying to Turn Tide at Royal Portrush
Daniel Brown

Seeks a Rebound at The Open Championship
Rory McIlroy

Will be the Most Watched Player This Week at Royal Portrush
Daniel Berger

Trending Poorly as The Open Championship Looms
Clayton Kershaw

Retires Both Batters In ASG Appearance
Eugenio Suárez

Eugenio Suarez Hit In Pinky In All-Star Game, X-Rays Negative
Robert MacIntyre

Hoping to Bounce Back at Open Championship
Shane Lowry

Hopes to Repeat at Royal Portrush
Brian Harman

Hopes to Rekindle Some Magic at the 153rd Open
UTA

Michael Carcone Returns to Utah on One-Year Contract
Bowen Byram

Signs Two-Year Deal with Sabres
Morgan Barron

Jets Re-Sign Morgan Barron for Two Years
PGA

Chris Gotterup Punches Ticket to Royal Portrush With Win at Scottish Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Hopes to Reverse Links Golf Struggle at the 153rd Open
Keegan Bradley

Needs to Find The Weekend at Royal Portrush for Ryder Cup Hopes
Justin Thomas

Finishes Tied For 22nd at Genesis Scottish Open
Scottie Scheffler

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Genesis Scottish Open
Jon Rahm

Finishes in Second at LIV Andalucia
Tallison Teixeira

Suffers First-Round TKO
Derrick Lewis

Scores First-Round TKO
Stephen Thompson

Loses Controversial Split Decision
Gabriel Bonfim

Wins Controversial Split Decision
Calvin Kattar

Gets Outclassed At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Extends His Win Streak
Nate Landwehr

Gets Knocked Out
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere Scores Third-Round Knockout
Austen Lane

Suffers Submission Loss
Vitor Petrino

Scores First-Round Submission In Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Earns His First UFC Win
Chase Elliott

Charges to A Finish of Third At Sonoma
Chase Briscoe

Finishes Second With his First Career Road-Course Top-Five at Sonoma
Christopher Bell

Rollercoaster Day Ends With Top-5 Finish at Sonoma
William Byron

Maintains the Regular-Season Points Lead
Kyle Busch

Earns A Hard-Fought Top-10 Finish At Sonoma
Alex Ovechkin

Not Thinking About Retirement
PIT

Penguins Acquire Arturs Silovs
NHL

Nikolai Kovalenko Returns to Russia
Tyler Reddick

Evades Near Upset to Remain Alive in In-Season Challenge
Ty Gibbs

One of Three Tylers to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinals
Kyle Larson

Curiously Mediocre at Sonoma Before Late-Race Crash
NASCAR

John H. Nemechek Edges Out Teammate to Make In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Alex Bowman

Ty Dillon Bumps Alex Bowman to Advance to In-Season Challenge Semifinal
Shane Van Gisbergen

Can Anyone Beat Shane van Gisbergen at Sonoma?
Tyler Reddick

Better at Sonoma Than Record Shows
Chase Elliott

a Prime DFS Option at Sonoma
Michael McDowell

Struggling a Bit at Sonoma
NASCAR

Christopher Bell Has Never Finished Better Than Ninth at Sonoma
Ryan Blaney

Has Top-10 Upside at Sonoma
NASCAR

Sunday at Sonoma Will Likely Be a Long Race for Bubba Wallace
Kyle Larson

Is A Likely Top-Five Contender for Sonoma
Ryan Preece

Points Position Could Affect Race at Sonoma
Todd Gilliland

Struggling to Find Speed at Sonoma
Ty Gibbs

May be an Underrated Favorite to Compete for the Win at Sonoma
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF