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Rob's fantasy football running back draft sleepers (part 3) -- undervalued workhorse RBs with ADPs after the 6th round including Javonte Williams, Devin Singletary, more.
This will be the third and final entry to this series, looking at some cheap workhorse running backs with the potential to exceed, meet, or flirt with 250 touches. If you've followed along with each new entry, the ADPs keep getting later and later. Because of that, the options are beginning to feel more and more comforting. Our final name on this list will surely turn some stomachs, but regardless, he deserves mention. If you're not drafting a running back first until Round 9 or 10, where this entry begins, you should expect the options to feel gross.
Still, the potential for all three of these running backs is there, and once you get into the double-digit rounds, there are no sure things about any position. They're available for a reason. They'd be going 4-5 rounds earlier without question marks. As with every running back listed in this series, these players are well-positioned to garner many of their team's backfield touches. That doesn't mean they'll be efficient or that it'll be pretty, but when it comes to running backs and fantasy football, volume is king. That's what we're chasing.
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The Parameters
Before we get into the running backs, here are a few rules. We are looking for running backs who are being drafted in the seventh round or later. If we're trying to target the other positions early, we don't want to be taking a running back before that. That gives us six rounds to hammer quarterback, receiver, and tight end. This leaves us with this question: who will be left in the seventh round? That's who we're identifying. How do we know who to target? It's simple -- volume. Touches per game. That's what we're after.
Last season, only two running backs inside the top 24 for full-PPR PPG failed to reach an average of 14.7 touches per game. Over 17 games, that would equal at least 250 touches. 22 of last season's top-24 running backs accomplished this. In 2022, only three finished in the top 24 for PPR PPG average, with a touch per game total of fewer than 14.7. Just three running backs managed the feat in 2021 as well. So, when we're looking for running backs to target in Round 7 or later, we want to find running backs who are a good bet for 14.7 touches per game. Let's begin.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
RB34, ADP 110.7
This probably feels ugly, but stay with me for a bit. Williams was playing in his first season after that brutal knee injury in 2022 when he tore his ACL, LCL, and PCL. Quite honestly, it was an achievement for him to have played 16 games last year, but realistically, we shouldn’t have been expecting him to be anywhere close to his normal self. With that injury in the rearview window, fantasy managers can be a bit more optimistic. If nothing else, his poor performance last year lowers the price.
However, he finished with 264 touches in 16 games, averaging 16.5 touches per game, cruising past our threshold. Williams, like Josh Jacobs, was one of the most inefficient running backs in the league last year. While he scored 177.2 PPR points, his expected total was 219.5, giving him a differential of -42.3, the fifth worst. That shouldn’t be entirely surprising, considering the injury he was overcoming.
As a rookie, Williams was much more effective. In 2021, he finished eighth in yards after contact per rushing attempt and first in broken tackle rate. He created 3.42 yards per touch, seventh best among running backs, and 81 evaded tackles (sixth most). Williams also showed some talent in the passing game, finishing with a 1.45 yard-per-route run average, 17th best. He finished as the RB24 that year with a 12.3 PPR PPG average. Not bad, right?
In his three seasons in the league, Williams has averaged 14.5 touches (2021), 15.8 touches (2022), and 16.5 touches (2023) per game. He’s essentially been at or crossed our threshold in every season he’s been in the NFL. Sean Payton is also a mastermind at churning out productive fantasy running backs. This past season, the Denver running backs combined for 346 carries, 150 targets, and 128 receptions. Williams has averaged 56 targets and 45 receptions in his two full seasons, giving him good PPR appeal.
Sean Payton Coached Teams
+ Rank by Team Running Back (PPR) FPG2023: 6th
2022: N/A
2021: 21st
2020: 1st
2019: 8th
2018: 2nd
2017: 1st
2016: 1st
2015: 2nd
2014: 1st
2013: 2nd
2012: 1st
2011: 1sttop-6 finishes in 10 of 12 seasons
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) May 21, 2024
Williams was on this list last season, and I'm not prepared to say I was wrong... yet. The best you'll get right now is that I was a year too early. Williams was a highly regarded draft prospect who had a good rookie season. He finished with 1,219 scrimmage yards and seven touchdowns!
Williams was on pace for 1,190 scrimmage yards in four games in his second season. His career looked very bright before that injury, and now he'll be two years removed from it this October. Don't be surprised if his efficiency returns this season, and with the number of touches he's averaged per game throughout his career, that would result in Williams being a positive return on investment, given his current ADP.
Devin Singletary, New York Giants
RB33, ADP 109.2
Singletary has been one of the most consistent running backs since entering the league five years ago. He's had between 956 and 1,099 scrimmage yards every single year. He's eclipsed our 14.7 touch-per-game threshold as a rookie and came very close last year with the Texans when he averaged 14.5. He's averaged 13.6 touches per game for his career, so he's right there.
Last year with the Texans, Singletary operated as Dameon Pierce's backup for the season's first eight weeks. During that time, Singletary averaged seven carries and one reception per game. However, due to Pierce's ineffectiveness, he was benched and Singletary became the clear starter. Singletary averaged 17.1 carries, 76.6 rushing yards, 3.0 targets, 2.3 receptions, and 16.8 receiving yards per game for the season's final nine games. Those per-game averages would equate to 291 carries, 1,301 rushing yards, 51 targets, 40 receptions, and 285 yards. That's a total of 331 touches and 1,586 scrimmage yards. During those final nine games, Singletary was the RB15 with a 14.3 PPR PPG.
The running backs on the roster behind Singletary are not very threatening. They include Eric Gray, a 2023 fifth-round pick, Gary Brightwell, a 2021 sixth-round pick, and Tyrone Tracy Jr., a 2024 fifth-round pick. These three players have combined for 75 total touches and 326 yards. Not only that, but Singletary has a history with Giants head coach Brian Daboll. He was Buffalo's offensive coordinator from 2019-2021, which encompassed Singletary's first three seasons in the NFL. During those first three seasons under Daboll, Singletary averaged 227 touches and 1,142 scrimmage yards over 17 games.
That isn't quite the 250 we're looking for, but what can you expect in the 10th round? Singletary can handle 14.7 touches per game (we've seen him do it twice now), and the Giants' depth chart is ripe for the taking. Singletary's veteran presence and his prior relationship with Daboll give him a clear leg up on everyone else. The Giants offense will not be very good this season, but volume is king, and Singletary has a clear path to getting quite a bit of it.
Career numbers *ducks*
Yards per carry:
Devin Singletary (4.5), Saquon Barkley (4.3)Yards after contact per carry:
Singletary (3), Barkley (3)Missed tackles forced per carry:
Singletary (0.2), Barkley (0.15)Explosive run play rate:
Singletary (12.4%), Barkley (10.5%)— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) May 6, 2024
In 2022, Saquon Barkley finished with 352 touches, 1,650 scrimmage yards, and 10 touchdowns. This past season, Barkley had 288 touches, 1,242 scrimmage yards, and 10 touchdowns. Daboll has committed to one workhorse running back for the past two seasons in New York. Granted, that running back was Barkley, but it still points to his comfort level with giving one guy the work. The only guy on the Giants roster who has shown any ability to be able to handle that is the guy they signed this offseason, Devin Singletary. He's the cheapest and most realistic 250-touch RB available.
Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas Cowboys
RB38, ADP 122.7
I know, trust me, I know. However, no matter how you feel about Elliott, he's had 248 touches (2022) and 235 (2023) with two teams over the past two years. He's flirted with our 250-touch threshold for the past two seasons, and not that it needs to be said, but in 2022, Elliott was a Cowboy.
That season, Elliott was competing for touches with a hyper-efficient Tony Pollard. Now, he'll be competing for touches with Rico Dowdle. Dowdle may be the sexier name just because he's younger and not Elliott, but the coaching staff in Dallas knows Elliott. They trust Elliott, and make no mistake, that matters. While some fantasy managers may argue Dowdle is the better bet for 250 touches, I'll leave those with this.
Rico Dowdle touches per season
NFL: 106, 0, 7
CFB: 128, 137, 77, 148
HS: 215, 22, 41— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) May 21, 2024
Dowdle has never had more than 215 touches in a season, not even in high school. He has never had 150 touches in his NFL and collegiate careers. If his high school coach never fed him and his college coach never fed him, what's the argument for why the Dallas coaching staff will? Especially when the same Dallas coaching staff gave Zeke 248 touches in 2022 when Pollard was balling? The only reasonable answer is that they wouldn't. I know Pollard struggled a bit in 2023, but in 2022, the last year Elliott was in Dallas, Pollard was amazing.
He finished 15th in rushing yards, 12th in receiving yards, second in yards per reception, fourth in yards per route run, fifth in yards per touch, third in yards per carry, fourth in breakaway run rate, first in yards after contact per rushing attempt, and eighth in yards created per touch. Think about that. Think about how efficient that is. Now, think about how Mike McCarthy and the Dallas coaching staff still gave Elliott 248 touches, more total touches than Pollard.
I don't believe Zeke will be very good or efficient with his touches, but that won't matter. The coaching staff knows him, and they trust him. He's still one of the better pass-blocking running backs in the NFL and given how much the Cowboys will sling it this year, that skill set of Zeke's will keep him on the field more than every other running back on the roster.
Whatever deficiencies Elliott has in terms of his effectiveness will be made up by his scoring opportunities. Pollard was second in red-zone rushing attempts last season. He was sixth in rushing attempts inside the 10-yard and 5-yard lines. In 2022, Elliott had 12 touchdowns. Given how strong Dallas will be, Elliott will be a great bet for 10+ touchdowns. I don't believe Elliott will get to 250 touches, but I do believe he'll have 220-235. Given his elite-level touchdown potential, that could make up for the 15-30 fewer touches than what we're looking for.
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