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Did you realize that the Twins were in first place for a couple of minutes in a division that includes not only free spending Detroit but the American League All Star Team as well? They have since faded, but attaining first at all required quite a few players far exceeding preseason expectations, especially in their rotation. Two such pitchers are discussed below, as well as a former Twin that found success elsewhere.
Mike Pelfrey (SP, MIN)
5-3 with a 3.18 ERA seems pretty good, but then you look at the 4.11 FIP and atrocious 4.33 K/9. Pelfrey has never been an elite strikeout guy, but less than 5 K/9 is pathetic for anyone and a career worst for Pelfrey discounting last season. Having thrown just 33 innings in 2014, I am going to ignore it and use 2013 as his most recent previous performance. His walks are down from 3.12 BB/9 to 2.80 - which is still not great. He is somehow stranding runners at a 78% clip, but that doesn't figure to last with so few Ks. BABIP against is a normal .303, but sustained in part by a low LD% of 19.7%. Pelfrey has been all over the place in terms of line drives allowed, so maybe he can sustain that and maybe he can't. If he can't, regression will be ugly. His 7% HR/FB is actually luck neutral (career 7.8%).
Overall bombs allowed are down not due to flyball luck but a lack of flies in general - Pelfrey's current GB% of 55.5% would be a career best over a full campaign. This is justified by a change in pitch selection, as his split is up 8.2% while his sinker has skyrocketed 13.1% to 53.9% usage. He won't miss the heater that has nearly vanished to accommodate these offerings (31.9% to 14.7%), as it posts a horrific 3.7% SwStr%. The sinker is actually slightly worse in that regard with a 3.6% figure, but it induces grounders at a 57.5% clip - hence the career high grounder rate.
That might make him look like Dallas Keuchel, but most of Pelfrey's success was limited to the month of April (2.25 ERA, .209 average against). In May, those numbers regressed to 3.21 and .282. In his most recent start on June 13, he was lit up for 8 ER and 11 H (with 3 BB) in just 3.2 IP. He is trending badly, and lacks the talent to bet against the current trend.
Finally, Pelfrey has bizarre platoon splits that make even situational usage difficult to recommend. Against lefties, he allows a .241/.364/.324 triple slash line, which would be solid if he wasn't walking them so frequently. Righties don't walk nearly as often, but hit .299 with a slugging percentage of .404. Overall, he's just not very effective against anyone.
Verdict: Chump
Trevor May (SP, MIN)
Unlike his teammate, advanced stats suggest that May has been unlucky. Indeed, his 3.16 FIP is much better than his 4.26 ERA. His K rate is actually down to 7.71 K/9 from 8.67 last year, but the upside has been a massive decline in walk rate: 4.34 BB/9 to 1.73 so far this year. That is likely worth it. His .325 BABIP against seems high, especially with a normal 20.9% LD rate and strong IFFB% of 10.7%. He does not believe in groundballs (39%), but a flyball strategy should work at Target Field because it suppresses power. His BABIP should be low, not high, based on his batted ball distribution.
Strikeouts do not seem to be in the cards for May, as his best strikeout pitch is a changeup with a 16.1% SwStr% and 37.5% O-Swing% - solid, but not sensational. His fastball is a strike at a robust 55.4% clip, while his 2-seamer finds the zone 53% of the time and is chased when it misses at a league average 31.2% rate, so the improved control appears to be legitimate. Together, the two heaters account for 63.5% of May's pitches, with the 2-seamer seeing more usage (5.4% to 21.8%) this season at the expense of its counterpart (55.1% to 41.7%).
While he appears to be a flyball pitcher, his 2-seamer induces worm killers at an above average 52.5% rate while his slider is hit onto the ground 61.5% of the time. The change is in the air 46.2% of the time with a favorable 22.2% IFFB% rate. There are two ways to take this data. One is to think that May is versatile enough to focus on flies unless he needs grounders for double plays or hitter's parks, allowing him to adapt to any situation. However, evidence suggests that pitchers that lack strong tendencies for grounders or flies are less effective than arms with either specialty. Either way, May's lack of strikeouts makes him a better real pitcher than fantasy option, especially with a possible lack of wins going forward. Finally, May's style of pitching depends largely on the blessings of the BABIP gods whom have not smiled upon him yet this season. The Twins may have a champ, but for fantasy purposes May should be considered a . . .
Verdict: Chump
David Ortiz (BOS)
DH is not a position in fantasy and Utility means something else in real baseball, so no position is listed above. Big Papi is hitting .229/.313/.414 with nine bombs, disappointing most that called his name on draft day. His 11.3% walk rate is solid, but a career worst in Papi's storied career, while his 15.8% K rate remains quite strong. His .235 BABIP seems low, but the shift was practically invented for his swing and low BABIPs should be expected for the remainder of his career. Lefty specialists were also invented for players like Ortiz, as he has posted a dismal .113/.122/.155 triple slash line against LHP in 2015. Judging by his 24.1% LD rate in those PAs, Papi has actually been lucky in those situations. He still kills RHP (.288/.398/.547), but he'll be useless against lefty starters in weekly formats and almost all the time in the later innings when the LOOGYs come out to play. That is a serious problem.
Also problematic is a declining flyball rate, from 45.7% in 2014 to 36% this season. Fewer flies mean fewer bombs, and age may have taken a bite out of his power stroke as well (14.3% HR/FB this year is shy of his elite 18.4% career standard). Ortiz's flyballs have diminished in the past - most notably in 2011 - and while he rebounded after that season it remains the worst full season of his Boston career. He's on a pace for a career high in groundball rate (43.4%), but that's useless to him.
Finally, there are off the field issues that lead me to be skeptical of a Papi rebound. Ortiz has shown that he can be a clubhouse cancer at times, poignantly freaking out when Terry Francona suggested platooning him in 2011. While a platoon would help his overall production, it seems likely that he would not be open to the suggestion, especially on a last place team with a manager that could not contain Wade Miley's outburst. He is also obsessed with convincing people he never took steroids despite a failed drug test in 2003, notably writing a lengthy rant for the Player's Tribune on the topic earlier this season. Perhaps that time would have been better spent taking BP against a lefty? Finally, Ortiz qualifies at no position in most fantasy formats - limiting roster flexibility for a situational bat. Is that really a good idea?
Verdict: Chump
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