X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Rick Porcello & Miguel Cabrera

Rick Lucks analyzes Rick Porcello and Miguel Cabrera to determine whether their value will rebound over the rest of the 2017 fantasy baseball season.

Nothing is more frustrating in fantasy than an absolute stud you paid up for deciding to decline as soon as you roster him. You don't want to get rid of last year's Cy Young award winner or the most recent man to win a Triple Crown, yet the clock is ticking on your fantasy season. What do you do?

Both Rick Porcello and Miguel Cabrera have placed their owners into the conundrum described above. To be fair, Porcello didn't deserve the Cy last year and Cabrera (age 34) had to show signs of aging eventually. Is this the beginning of the end for these former fantasy stalwarts, or can they escape their current funk?

Ownership rates provided are from Yahoo leagues.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

The Fantasy Jury is Out

Rick Porcello (SP, BOS) 83% Owned

Porcello is 4-9 with a 5.00 ERA and 4.30 xFIP in 2017. Many metrics suggest that he has been unlucky to this point in the campaign, including his .371 BABIP and 67.1% strand rate. He probably will be better than this going forward. However, the positive regression will likely not be enough to make him relevant in most formats.

First, let's consider his upside. Porcello's 21% strikeout rate is not special for fantasy purposes, and it wasn't great in his Cy Young season last year either (21.2%). An analysis of his repertoire reveals a slider (16.7% SwStr%, 41.3% chase) and change (12.1% SwStr%, 46.2% chase) that rank as plus strikeout pitches, but they are the two offerings Porcello utilizes least (14.6% and 9.8%, respectively). Porcello's fastball boasts an excellent whiff rate (12%), but the net result is just a league-average number of strikeouts. Porcello has to help with Wins or ERA to matter in fantasy, because Ks are never coming.

The AL East consists of homer-friendly stadiums and Tampa Bay, so a ground ball tendency is recommended to succeed there. Once upon a time, Porcello was an extreme ground ball pitcher. His career GB% is still 49.3%. He decided Boston would be a good place to be a fly ball pitcher though, currently sporting a FB% of 41% after a 38% mark last season. His HR/FB is not that bad (11.9%), but he allows too many fly balls to rely on in fantasy. Porcello is always one pitch away from hurting your ERA.

The upside to a fly-heavy approach is a lower BABIP allowed, but Porcello certainly hasn't experienced that. His BABIP on fly balls is .220, much higher than the .152 mark he posted last year and his .176 figure from 2015. It is not the fault of Boston's outfield defense, as their usual alignment (Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Andrew Benintendi) has combined for 29 DRS already this year. Betts alone has 17! You would think that this group could improve Porcello's BABIP on flies and liners (.681) going forward, improving Porcello's ugly .371 BABIP.

The left side of Boston's infield has been less helpful, however. Red Sox third basemen have combined for -9 DRS, including -6 from Pablo Sandoval in a limited sample. Shortstop Xander Bogaerts is also not very good with a glove, earning -6 DRS himself. The team should pull the plug on Panda soon, but it is hard to forecast much regression for Porcello's .322 BABIP on ground balls until they actually do so.

For his part, Porcello's quality of contact allowed is roughly the same as last year. Balls hit into the air against him have averaged 92.1 mph this year, relatively close to last year's mark of 92.7 mph. Grounders against him are only slightly harder, going from 84.1 mph last year to 84.8 mph this season. Batters are barrelling the ball slightly more frequently (8.8% Brls/BBE vs. 7.3% last season), but there is no massive change here to explain his current struggles.

The Red Sox are nowhere near as good as they were last year, and 22 wins would be difficult to expect even if they were. Porcello is an adequate streaming option when pitching in a park that suppresses power, but nothing more than that. Shame on you if you were expecting an ace and paid accordingly.

Verdict: Chump

 

Miguel Cabrera (1B, DET) 98% Owned

Cabrera has so much track record as an obvious first-round pick that you may not have realized he was slashing  .267/.368/.443 with eight dingers this season. He put up a .316/.393/.563 line with 38 big flies last year, so there was no indication that the end was near. What is wrong with this premier slugger?

Cabrera's power is being hindered by two correctable issues. First, his FB% is down to 29.6% from 35.5% a year ago. This would normally be a significant issue, but all of the lost flies have turned into line drives (29.6% LD%, 22.7% last year). Cabrera is still elevating the ball, so homers will come when all the liners turn back into flies. He's also pulling a paltry 4% of his flies, making it hard to homer in most ballparks. Cabrera has the power to hit any pitch out of the park, however, as evidenced by his 38 HR last season despite a Pull% on fly balls of 14.5%.

If you're thinking that age has robbed Cabrera of some of his contact quality, it hasn't. Cabrera is averaging 97.6 mph on batted balls hit into the air, good for 10th in the league. He is also barrelling the baseball at an above average 13.6% Brls/BBE clip. Both marks are similar to his measures from last year (97 and 15.9%, respectively), so there hasn't been any loss of airborne contact quality.

His batting average is down thanks in part to a .317 BABIP that is amazingly 30 points below his career mark of .347. One problem is on the ground, where a decline in exit velocity (86 mph versus 91 mph last year) has produced only a .203 BABIP (.257 last year). Cabrera is still murdering balls hit into the air, so this trend isn't too concerning. Another issue is his .116 BABIP on flies despite how hard Cabrera hits them (.185 last year). Assuming Cabrera retains his elite exit velocity, more flies should find grass in the near future.

Cabrera is also striking out a little more than he has historically. His K% is up to 20.5% from 17.1% a year ago, a change supported by an uptick in SwStr% (from 10.2% to 11.6%). However, his Z-Contact% is virtually unchanged (83.9% vs. 85.9% last year.) His current strikeout rate is still better than the league average, so it is not as though pitchers have found a significant hole in his swing.

Cabrera's reputation ensures that he holds on to the coveted three-spot in Detroit's order no matter what his season totals look like, so he should compile plenty of counting stats. All of his flaws seem correctable, so it is probably a great time to buy low on one of the greatest players the game has ever known.

Verdict: Champ

 

More Player Outlooks

 

Premium Tools & DFS Research

Get a free trial of our powerful MLB Premium Tools. Our famous DFS Optimizer & Lineup Generator, daily Matchup Ratings, expert DFS Lineups/Cheat Sheets, and more.

Sign Up Now!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Clarke Schmidt

Leaves Start with Forearm Tightness
Colson Montgomery

Promoted to the Major Leagues
Pittsburgh Steelers

Omar Khan, Steelers Agree to Three-Year Contract
Max Muncy

Goes on Injured List With Knee Bruise
Max Muncy

Out of Thursday's Lineup
James Wood

Joining Home Run Derby
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
Max Scherzer

Cleared to Start on Saturday
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
Kodai Senga

Could be "in Play" to Return Before All-Star Break
Ha-Seong Kim

Rays Reinstate Ha-Seong Kim From Injured List
Christian Moore

Placed on Injured List With Thumb Sprain
Luis L. Ortiz

the Subject of Gambling Investigation
Jordan Lawlar

to Miss Multiple Weeks With Hamstring Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Receives Encouraging News on his Hand
Chau Smith-Wade

Having Stellar Offseason
Ace Bailey

Inks Rookie Contract With Jazz
Divine Deablo

Could be the Quarterback of the Defense
Isaiah Rodgers

a Likely Starter for the Vikings
Jacob Monk

Sees Plenty of Work With Starters
Avonte Maddox

has Impressed Dan Campbell
Boston Celtics

Josh Minott Inks Deal With Celtics
Chicago Bears

Ruben Hyppolite Shows Notable Improvement
Toronto Raptors

Sandro Mamukelashvili Heading to Toronto
Daron Payne

Commanders Coaches Impressed With Daron Payne
Danny Gray

Makes Impression During Offseason Workouts
Jared McCain

Not on 76ers Summer League Roster
Dane Belton

Should Have a Role in 2025
Kaiir Elam

Flashes During Offseason Workouts
Dylan Harper

Unavailable for California Classic
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
Riley Greene

Homers Twice, Drives in Six on Wednesday
Max Muncy

Exits With Apparent Knee Injury
Christian Moore

Exits Early with Thumb Irritation
Cleveland Cavaliers

Larry Nance Jr. Headed Back to Cavaliers
Josh Naylor

Returning to Diamondbacks Lineup
Eric Gordon

Remaining with 76ers
Los Angeles Lakers

Deandre Ayton Joining Lakers
Oronde Gadsden

an Active Pass-Catcher This Offseason
Brashard Smith

Speed Could be Put to Use
Emil Heineman

Signs Two-Year Deal with Islanders
Pat Bryant

Off to a Good Start
Simon Holmstrom

Re-Signs with Islanders for Two Years
Cody Barton

Quickly Becoming a Leader With his New Team
UTA

Nate Schmidt Signs Three-Year Deal with Mammoth
Montaric Brown

has Worked With Starters
UTA

Brandon Tanev Moves to Utah on Three-Year Contract
NJ

Evgenii Dadonov Joins Devils on One-Year Deal
BUF

Sabres Snap Up Alex Lyon on Two-Year Contract
Dallas Mavericks

Dante Exum Returning to Dallas
Ryan McLeod

Inks Four-Year Extension with Sabres
NAS

Predators Bring in Nick Perbix on Two-Year Deal
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Has Surgery to Repair a Turf Toe Injury
LA

Cody Ceci Moves to Los Angeles
DET

James van Riemsdyk Joins Red Wings on One-Year Contract
Viktor Arvidsson

Traded to Boston
Charlotte Hornets

Spencer Dinwiddie Lands With Charlotte
Josh Jung

Sent to Triple-A
Jurickson Profar

Officially Reinstated and Hitting in Five-Hole on Wednesday
Spencer Schwellenbach

Going on Injured List With Fractured Elbow
Maxwell Hairston

Facing Sexual-Assault Lawsuit
Tai Felton

Rookie Season Likely to be Spent on Special Teams
LeQuint Allen Jr.

to Have Receiving Role for Jaguars?
Justin Walley

Turning Heads Going into Rookie Season
Bud Cauley

in Great Form Ahead of John Deere Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

a Player to Avoid at John Deere Classic
Jake Knapp

Riding Momentum Ahead of John Deere Classic
Jamari Thrash

Establishing Himself as Reliable Option
PGA

Sungjae Im Looking for Consistency at John Deere Classic
Ryan Gerard

a Solid Option at John Deere Classic
Rickie Fowler

Looking to Rebound at John Deere Classic
Cameron Champ

a Volatile Option at John Deere Classic
Brandon Woodruff

Likely to Pitch on Sunday in Miami
Jackson Suber

Staying Below 70 is Key to Success for Jackson Suber
Kevin Roy

Playing Better Heading into John Deere Classic
Justin Lower

Hoping for Something Positive in Illinois
Ben Kohles

a Long Shot at John Deere Classic
Stephan Jaeger

Attempts to Stop Roller-Coaster Ride
Beau Hossler

Needs a Challenge in Illinois
Harry Higgs

Has Potential at John Deere Classic
Nick Dunlap

Keeps Plugging Through Tough 2025 Season
PHI

Dan Vladar Links Up With Flyers on Two-Year Deal
Zac Gallen

Fans 10 in Tuesday's Win
Milwaukee Bucks

Taurean Prince Staying in Milwaukee
Jeff Green

Signs One-Year Deal to Remain in Houston
Los Angeles Lakers

Jake LaRavia Lands with Lakers
Orlando Magic

Tyus Jones Signs One-Year Deal With Magic
Golden State Warriors

Kevon Looney Heads to New Orleans
Milwaukee Bucks

Jericho Sims Staying in Milwaukee
Denver Nuggets

Tim Hardaway Jr. Joins Nuggets
Detroit Pistons

Duncan Robinson Lands With Detroit
Charlotte Hornets

Tre Mann Remaining in Charlotte
Kevin Yu

a Near Must-Play at TPC Deere Run
PGA

J.T. Poston Returns to John Deere Classic Looking for Another High Finish
Thriston Lawrence

a Decent Fit For John Deere Classic
Tom Kim

Not Finding Much to be Happy About Ahead of John Deere Classic
Milwaukee Bucks

Gary Harris Inks Deal With Bucks
Si Woo Kim

is a Prohibitive Fade at John Deere Classic
Ben Griffin

is the Appropriate Favorite at TPC Deere Run
Daniel Suarez

and Trackhouse Racing Parting Ways After 2025 Season
Ilia Topuria

Becomes The New Lightweight Champion
Charles Oliveira

Knocked Out At UFC 317
Kai Kara-France

Alexandre Pantoja Submits Kai Kara-France
Kai Kara-France

Submitted At UFC 317
Joshua Van

Extends His Win Streak
Brandon Royval

Drops Decision
Renato Moicano

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Beneil Dariush

Gets Back In The Win Column
Felipe Lima

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Payton Talbott

Bounces Back
Alex Bowman

Competitive Run Ends With Third-Place Finish at Atlanta
Erik Jones

Secures A Top-Five Finish After Adversity In Atlanta
Tyler Reddick

Collects A New Career-Best Finish At Atlanta
Chase Elliott

Ends Winless Skid With Atlanta Victory
Brad Keselowski

Falls Short of Atlanta Victory
Carson Hocevar

Recovers From Big One to Finish 10th at Atlanta
William Byron

Caught up in Atlanta Big One but Retains Points Lead
Denny Hamlin

Top In-Season Challenge Seed Denny Hamlin Eliminated in Lap 70 Crash
Ty Dillon

Bottom Seed Ty Dillon Upsets Denny Hamlin to Advance in In-Season Challenge
Kyle Larson

Don't Expect Kyle Larson to Win First Drafting Track Race on Saturday
Christopher Bell

Unlikely to Complete Atlanta Sweep
Brad Keselowski

Seeks Another Clutch Win for Hail-Mary Playoff Bid
Chris Buescher

Unlikely to Lead Enough to Have Much DFS Value
Alex Bowman

Qualifies Best Among Non-Fords but Unlikely to Contend at Atlanta
Ryan Preece

Will Probably Run Better Than Usual at Atlanta
Austin Dillon

Consistently Mediocre at Atlanta
Ty Gibbs

Slightly Faster Lately but Unlikely to be a Factor at Atlanta
Erik Jones

a Low-Key Strong DFS Option
Noah Gragson

Could Have DFS Value as One of the Lowest-Qualifying Fords
Riley Herbst

Unlikely to Replicate February Atlanta Finish
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF