X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Champ or Chump: Kevin Cron and Gavin Lux

Rick Lucks examines the fantasy baseball viability of infielders Kevin Cron (Diamondbacks) and Gavin Lux (Dodgers) for fantasy baseball owners in redraft leagues in 2019 and beyond. Are they worthwhile fantasy assets?

While September callups are typically associated with Quad-A guys that fantasy owners are never going to hear from again, there were quite a few interesting names summoned this year. Kevin Cron of the Arizona Diamondbacks (and younger brother of C.J. Cron) could produce big power numbers if he gets a chance to play, making him a worthwhile speculative add if you're desperate for pop. He's also an intriguing name to stash in the back of your mind for 2020 drafts.

Of course, the biggest name is Gavin Lux of the Los Angeles Dodgers. You'd have to be insane not to roll the dice on his potential considering how late we are in the year, but there are several red flags in the top prospect's minor league profile that make this author leery of burning a lot of draft capital for his 2020.

Keep in mind, our Champ / Chump conclusions are based on whether we think a player will outperform their expectations. For example, a pitcher we view as "Tier 2" can be a Champ if they're seen as a Tier 3 pitcher, or they could be a Chump if they're perceived as a Tier 1 pitcher. All ownership rates are from Yahoo! leagues unless otherwise noted. Let's take a closer look at Cron and Lux, shall we?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Kevin Cron (1B/3B, ARI)

1% Owned

Cron already owns 65 big league PAs on the season, slamming a respectable five homers but striking out an ugly 41.5% of the time. The good news is that the 26-year old has an extensive minor league resume that suggests the power is real while the K% won't be quite that bad. The bad news is that the suddenly contending D-Backs may not give him the chance to show what he can do until next year.

Cron first reached Double-A in 2016, but he was overwhelmed to the tune of .222/.278/.437 with 26 HR in 510 PAs. He struck out too often (26.2 K%), but a microscopic .248 BABIP was the biggest reason for his struggles. Importantly, he hit a ton of fly balls (52.4 FB%). We'll get back to that shortly.

Cron repeated the level in 2017, producing a much better .283/.357/.497 line with 25 long balls in 588 PAs. He walked more (9.5 BB% vs. 6.5% the year before) while striking out less (22.8 K%), always a good indication that a player is ready for a new challenge. His BABIP jumped to .332, and he again posted a very high FB% (50.4).

Cron graduated to Triple-A for 2018 and maintained most of his gains from the prior campaign. He hit .309/.368/.554 with 22 big flies in just 438 PAs, walking at a reasonable 8.2% rate while keeping the strikeouts in check (22.8 K%). He also posted a .359 BABIP and 47.3 FB%. Cron repeated the level this season, taking advantage of the new ball to slash a ridiculous .331/.449/.777 with 38 HR in just 377 PAs. His walk rate exploded (16.2 BB%), his strikeouts declined (20.4%), and he hit a million fly balls (49.8 FB%).

Clearly, Cron isn't as good as his Triple-A line this year because nobody is. However, his plate discipline metrics have consistently been good. Given time, Cron should be able to post comparable K% and BB% marks in the major leagues. More importantly, he hits a ton of fly balls with slightly above average power (60-grade per Baseball Savant). Rhys Hoskins and Pete Alonso both profiled similarly when they made their big league debuts, and both fared especially well in their rookie campaigns.

If you want one more tidbit of information, consider this: Cron's 27.3% rate of Brls/BBE ranks first among all big leaguers with at least 30 BBEs this season (Cron has 33). His 98.9 mph average airborne exit velocity ranks fifth in the same sample. Yes, it's a small sample. However, you can't fake special contact, and this is a guy who has been setting power records since he was in high school.

Cron's short-term outlook depends on how much Arizona believes in Jake Lamb, as that's who's playing time he would most likely be cutting into. Long-term, however, Cron is a guy who should be on far more fantasy radars than he currently is. He's probably available in your league, so why not take a chance?

Verdict: Champ (based on elite power upside that everybody seems to be sleeping on)

 

Gavin Lux (SS/2B, LAD)

48% Owned

Lux is a 21-year-old on the deepest team in baseball, so most pundits assumed that he wouldn't get a chance in 2019. Max Muncy is on the IL, however, and there are rumblings that Lux could make the club's postseason roster as a result. The former first-rounder's potential is through the roof, but might need to make a few adjustments before he's ready to anchor fantasy rosters.

Lux first cracked the High Minors last season, slashing .324/.408/.495 with four homers and a pair of steals in 120 PAs. He walked a lot (11.7 BB%) without striking out often (16.7 K%), always a good sign for a player's future. However, he had a hard time elevating the ball (27.4 FB%) despite plus power (17.4% HR/FB), presenting a clear avenue for improvement. He was also caught on the bases twice to go with his two steals, a 50% success rate that won't fly with a team as analytical as LA.

Lux returned to Double-A to begin the 2019 season, slashing .313/.375/.521 with 13 HR and seven steals in 291 PAs. Both his BB% (9.6) and K% (20.6) moved in the wrong direction but remained strong. His FB% fell to just 26.4% even as his HR/FB surged to 24.5%. He was also caught thrice on the bases. Still, his performance was good enough to earn a promotion to Triple-A and the nitro-charged baseball.

Lux took full advantage, slashing .392/.478/.719 with 13 homers and three steals (but three CS) in 232 PAs. His 32.5 FB% was slightly higher than it was at Double-A, but still not where fantasy owners would want it (26% HR/FB). His .451 BABIP is obviously unsustainable over a full season, but his plate discipline metrics (14.2 BB%, 18.1 K%) suggest that he's ready to make these adjustments at the highest level.

Lux was originally seen as a defense-first shortstop, but scouts have come around on his offensive upside as well. FanGraphs projects a 55-grade hit tool in the future (though it's only 35 right now), with 40/55 Game Power, 55/60 Raw Power, and 55-grade speed. Baseball Savant is more optimistic, seeing 60-hit, 55-power, and 60-run. Scouts also love his makeup, and Lux is reportedly working to add loft to his swing. Perhaps a conversation with teammate Justin Turner is in order?

Lux hit eighth in his MLB debut but first in his second big league start, so the Dodgers are sending mixed signals as to what his lineup role will be. A blend of power and speed with regular playing time in the loaded LA lineup is too good to pass up, so burning whatever FAAB you have left is probably the best short-term play here. However, a pedestrian success rate on MiLB stolen base attempts and low FB% rates suggest that he might still be a few years away from superstardom. Bid for his services in 2020 accordingly.

Verdict: Champ (as a waiver add in 2019), Chump (based on likely draft day cost in 2020)

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Jacob Wilson

Exits Early On Tuesday With Left Hand Contusion
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
Laken Tomlinson

Confident in Texans Offensive Line
J.K. Dobbins

the Starter in Denver?
JT Woods

Seahawks Release JT Woods
Darren Waller

Trade to Miami Becomes Official
Asante Samuel Jr.

Dolphins Interested in Asante Samuel Jr.
Nyheim Hines

Seeking Return to NFL
Dak Prescott

Expects to be Full-Go for Training Camp
Ajay Mitchell

Posts 16 Points in Summer League Win on Monday
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Waived by Bucks
Brice Sensabaugh

Logs 37 points in Summer League Win on Monday
Luis Garcia

Fans Four in Rehab Outing
GG Jackson II

Collects 27 Points in Summer League Loss
Ace Bailey

Scores 18 Points in Summer League Victory
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Kobe Bufkin

Cleared for Summer League Action
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Milwaukee Bucks

Vasilije Micic Agrees to Contract Buyout with Bucks
PGA

Sungjae Im Still a Liability at Scottish Open
James Wiseman

Pacers Bring Back James Wiseman
Ludvig Aberg

is a Solid Option at Scottish Open
Tyrese Haliburton

to Miss Entire 2025-26 Campaign
Paolo Banchero

Signs Historic Five-Year Extension with Magic
Anthony Santander

Hoping to Hit Soon
Luis Robert Jr.

Returning in Short Order
Alex Bregman

Could Return Later This Week
Ketel Marte

Day-to-Day with Groin Tightness
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Hunter Greene

Suffers Setback on Monday
Kyle Lowry

Staying With 76ers
Kyle Anderson

Lands in Utah
Kevin Love

Traded to Jazz in 3-Team Swap
Norman Powell

Traded to Miami
John Collins

Dealt to Clippers
J.J. Spaun

Finishes Tied For 14 at Travelers Championship
Xander Schauffele

Finishes Tied For 61 at Travelers Championship
Collin Morikawa

Finishes Tied For Eighth at Rocket Mortgage Classic
Robert MacIntyre

Finishes Tied For 17 at Travelers Championship
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For 11 at John Deere Classic
Viktor Hovland

Withdraws From Travelers Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Finishes Tied For Second at Travelers Championship
Brian Campbell

Wins John Deere Classic
Bronny James Jr.

Scores 10 Points
Harrison Ingram

Limited on Sunday
Golden State Warriors

Isaiah Mobley Drops 16 Points
Ryan Rollins

Staying with Bucks
T.J. Watt

Pittsburgh Still Not Close on New Contract
Terry McLaurin

Still Not Pleased with Contract Situation
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Yu Darvish

to Make Season Debut on Monday
MLB

Nationals Fire Dave Martinez, Mike Rizzo
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
KaVontae Turpin

Arrested on Two Charges
Cole Ragans

to Begin Throwing on Monday
Theo Johnson

Prioritizing his Health this Offseason
Andrés Giménez

Andres Gimenez Hits 10-Day Injured List
Jermaine Burton

Continues to Show Growth
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
Cam Ward

"Not Expecting" to be handed Starting Job
Chase Claypool

Eager to Get Back on the Field
Wyatt Langford

Activated, Playing on Saturday
Jay Huff

on the Move to Indiana
Cam Whitmore

Wizards Acquire Cam Whitmore from the Rockets
LaJohntay Wester

Stands out on Special Teams
Clarke Schmidt

Likely to Undergo Tommy John Surgery
Nolan Arenado

Scratched from Saturday's Lineup
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Starting on Saturday
Corbin Carroll

Activated from 10-Day Injured List
Cincinnati Bengals

Shemar Stewart, Bengals Continue Contract Talks, No Progress Made
Ha-Seong Kim

Removed Early During Season Debut
ARI

Christian Fischer Retires From NHL at 28
NHL

Spencer Martin Moves to Russia
WAS

Anthony Beauvillier Re-Signs With Capitals for Two Years
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Sitting Out With Foot Issue
Isaiah Neyor

Impresses at Minicamp
Bo Bichette

Back in Blue Jays Lineup
Miles Sanders

Works With Starters During Mandatory Minicamp
Chimere Dike

Titans Could Move Chimere Dike Inside
Keandre Lambert-Smith

KeAndre Lambert-Smith not Guaranteed Roster Spot
Anthony Bradford

Working Hard to Win Back Starting Job
Clarke Schmidt

Placed on Injured List
SJ

Sharks Claim Nick Leddy Off Waivers
SJ

Sharks Sign Dmitry Orlov to Two-Year, $13 Million Contract
CAR

Nikolaj Ehlers Joins Hurricanes on Six-Year Contract
COL

Brent Burns Inks One-Year Deal with Avalanche
STL

Blues Land Pius Suter on Two-Year Deal
Morgan Frost

Agrees to Two-Year Extension with Flames
WPG

Gustav Nyquist Moves to Winnipeg
Cody Glass

Devils Re-Sign Cody Glass to Two-Year Deal
PIT

Anthony Mantha Joins Penguins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF