RADIO
The Chicago Cubs selected Arizona prep outfielder Brennen Davis with the 62nd overall pick in the 2018 Rule 4 draft. It was a bit of a gamble, as Davis didn’t have much of a track record as a baseball player. He only changed over to the sport late in his high school career.
Since being drafted, Davis has developed from a promising, athletic outfielder to a potential future face of the franchise. If his trajectory continues, his elevation into potentially elite prospect territory is a big coup for the Cubs scouting department.
In this article, I will look at Brennen Davis's tools and performance to summarize what I expect his future MLB role will become. Also, I will take a peek at his future fantasy potential, both in 2022 and beyond.
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Fantasy Outlook
ETA: 2022
Expected performance (first 3 full seasons): Tier 3 ($20+)
Ceiling potential: Tier 1 ($40+)
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Outfielder |
Brennen Davis |
Cubs |
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OAE: 60 |
Future Role: Very good everyday outfielder and frequent All-Star |
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Hit |
Disc. |
Power |
Glove |
Run |
Ath. |
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55 |
60 |
60 |
60 |
60 |
70 |
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Summary |
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He should be a franchise player for the Cubs to build around. He’s above-average to plus in all facets of the game, but maybe just an eyelash short of being a persistently elite performer. However, his athleticism, high IQ, and great fundamentals might allow him to make that next step to perennial MVP candidate. |
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Hit
| Season | Team | Level | BB% | K% | SwStr% | LD% | xwOBA |
| 2018 | CHC | R | 13.9% | 16.7% | 26.2% | 22.0% | 0.303 |
| 2019 | CHC | A | 8.8% | 18.6% | 11.2% | 18.0% | 0.342 |
| 2021 | CHC | A+ | 9.4% | 18.8% | 13.3% | 22.7% | 0.370 |
| 2021 | CHC | AA | 11.4% | 30.7% | 15.4% | 23.4% | 0.340 |
| 2021 | CHC | AAA | 16.2% | 22.1% | 13.5% | 17.1% | 0.396 |
It appears that, early on in the 2021 season, Davis had a bit of trouble getting his power to materialize in game. In an effort to chase those results, his swinging strike rate and, ultimately, his strikeout rate crept up to over 30% at Double-A. However, by the time Davis made his brief Triple-A cameo, he really started to put things together, finding the barrel at an excellent clip while also drawing walks in 16.2% of his plate appearances.
His hands are fairly quiet. They start high up near his ears, and given his height, it takes Davis a moment to get them into his set swing position. He can cover this load, however, as his bat speed is electric.
Davis has an athletic swing that makes good use of his lower half. This creates a bat path that’s aligned for more line-drive contact than deep fly balls. His swing is not exactly fluid. From a fairly deep hand load, he doesn’t get a lot of extension through the ball.
He doesn’t seem to have much of an issue recognizing spin. I’m sure elite breaking balls will require him to make an adjustment, but so far in his career, he’s made tons of those with great success.
Despite his height, Davis does a good job covering the plate. Between that, his excellent bat speed, and his athletic and strong frame, Davis is a hitter that could be a very tough out at the highest level. He should flirt with a .300 batting average on occasion.
Discipline
Because of his assortment of hitting tools, pitchers are going to be prone to avoid Davis and bait him into making mistakes. He showed the ability in 2021 to improve his pitch recognition and patience at the plate, with his pitches seen per plate appearance climbing to over 4.0 at Triple-A.
Again, his bat speed and athleticism come into play. Because Davis can cover a lot of the plate, and because his bat speed allows him to wait an extra beat before making a swing decision if necessary, he can afford to allow himself to work deeper into counts because he can be hard to put away.
Power
| Season | Team | Level | ISO | HR/FB | FB% | Barrel% |
| 2018 | CHC | R | 0.035 | 0.0% | 24.4% | 3.1% |
| 2019 | CHC | A | 0.220 | 12.7% | 45.3% | 10.0% |
| 2021 | CHC | A+ | 0.286 | 15.4% | 59.1% | 12.6% |
| 2021 | CHC | AA | 0.222 | 19.1% | 40.7% | 11.6% |
| 2021 | CHC | AAA | 0.268 | 22.2% | 43.9% | 13.0% |
Davis has the type of raw power that lets him drive a mishit ball out to deep centerfield. While he’s consistently flashed above-average in-game power, true plus power has eluded him thus far as a professional. However, he also just turned 22 this month.
Physically, it’s hard to imagine Davis adding much more strength to his frame. So, future in-game power games will have to come from a tweak to his swing. It might mean sacrificing some of his bat control and plate coverage to allow for a more fluid extension and commitment to lifting and driving the baseball.
Whichever route Davis eventually settles on, he should be a productive offensive asset regardless. He has displayed the ability to hit for both average and power at the same time.
Defense
Davis is tall, fast, and rangy. He is also fundamentally a very sound defender. He can handle each outfield position. He has enough arm strength and good arm accuracy to handle right field. He might not have an absolute cannon for an arm, but it is strong enough that it shouldn’t be a liability there.
He might not possess the raw skills of a Gold Glove outfielder. However, between his strong fundamentals, athleticism, and a high in-game IQ, I also wouldn’t bet against it.
Run
Another area of the game that Davis impacts with his athleticism, fundamentals, and IQ. While his base-stealing stats haven’t been astounding in his minor-league career (18-for-24 lifetime), the speed and ability are there for him to be a double-digit base stealer at the highest level. He will also stretch singles into doubles, and move up from first to third in key situations. It’s another above-average to plus tool in his toolbelt.
Athleticism
Davis is listed at 6’4”, 210 lbs. He’s added some solid weight since draft day. He’s tall and well-proportioned, with a strong and flexible lower half. He’s got strong arms, forearms, and wrists. Good body control, both at the plate, on the basepaths, and in the outfield. He just looks like an athlete that has taken naturally to baseball despite the fact that it wasn’t his primary sport growing up.
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