X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Breakout Outfielders And What It Means for 2016

Welcome back, readers. We've gone through the infield breakouts and busts, now we head to the outfield.

The outfield had numerous surprises in the 2015 fantasy baseball landscape. Two of the top 10 outfielders were ranked outside the top 100 going into 2015 (A.J. Pollock, Lorenzo Cain) and of the top 20 outfielders, only five were ranked among the top 25 overall players in ADP (Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Andrew McCutchen, Michael Brantley). It was a great year to draft outfielders late, as we'll explain with the five names listed below.

In addition to focusing on breakout players and what went right in 2015, I'll provide some context as to whether the production is sustainable or if we were witnessing a fluky season. Let's get started.

 

Breakout Players at OF

A.J. Pollock (ARI - OF)

2015 Statistics: 673 PA, .315/.367/.498, 111 R, 20 HR, 76 RBI, 39 SB

This is the Pollock the Diamondbacks envisioned when they drafted him in the first round. He put together a full campaign, posting the only 20/35 season among outfielders. He finished second in runs (111) and steals (39) and tenth in wRC+ (132) among outfielders. He finished as the No. 7 overall fantasy player and No. 2 outfielder behind only Bryce Harper.

So how did Pollock make the leap? It actually began in 2014. He posted strong numbers in 75 games until a broken hand knocked him out for the year, with the biggest improvement coming from power. He hit seven HR in 287 at-bats in 2014 and proceeded to smack 20 in 673 at-bats this year.

Pollock never showed this power in the minors and was scouted as a line drive hitter with "10 to 15" home run potential. Over 75% of his homers were off line drives this year, a trait that's difficult to maintain as a player gets older. Perhaps Pollock has simply matured as a hitter, but don't bank on him topping 20 HR in 2016. The rest of the numbers are authentic and Pollock is here to stay as a top 10 OF given his power/speed combo. The only downside to Pollock is he'll cost a pretty penny; he's currently projected as a top 25 pick. If he can stay healthy, he'll justify his high price tag.

 

Lorenzo Cain (KC - OF)

2015 Statistics: 604 PA, .307/.361/.477, 101 R, 16 HR, 72 RBI, 28 SB

Here's another example of unexpected power. After hitting just 16 home runs in his previous 1,188 at-bats, Cain matched that number in 604 at-bats in 2015. Cain was only top five in one category among outfielders (steals - 5th), but his across the board contributions helped him finish as the No. 8 outfielder.

One of the biggest external factors to Cain's success was batting third all year long. In contrast, he started 14 games in the three-hole in 2014. That helps explain the significant jump in R+RBI as he was surrounded by Eric Hosmer and Ben Zobrist instead of Alex Rios and Omar Infante.

Environment aside, Cain simply improved as a hitter. His walk rate rose while his strikeout rate plummeted by 25%, While his BABIP dropped from an unsustainable .380 to .347, his average actually rose by six points. Higher line drive rate, more solid contact, taking it opposite field more often, you get the gist. Cain was no fluke in 2015.

Steamer is not a fan of Cain going forward, projecting a .283/.334/.417 split with a 70/12/68/23 line over 628 at-bats. Personally I think it's premature to give Cain a fair projection until we see where Zobrist lands. They'll need a new two-hole if Zobrist signs elsewhere. Assuming they find a reasonable replacement, Cain should cover those projections fairly easily, particularly in the runs and average department.

 

Adam Eaton (CHW - OF)

2015 Statistics: 689 PA, .287/.361/.431, 98 R, 14 HR, 56 RBI, 18 SB

One of the few bright spots on an underachieving White Sox club, Eaton set the tone for the offense with his 98 runs, tied for eighth among all outfielders. And then there was that power.

To say Eaton's 14 homers were a career high is an understatement. In his past three years combined across all levels of the Diamondbacks organization, he hit 15. It wasn't exactly like they were lucky either. In fact, according to ESPN Home Run Tracker, only one of Eaton's homers was considered "lucky", and six of them cleared 400 feet.

Eaton's final numbers were padded by a fantastic September (.377, 2o R, 4 HR, 20 RBI, 5 SB) but they all count in the end. Steamer projects Eaton for a .272/.343/.395 split with a 83/10/54/18 line, a slight regression from this year. I think that's a bit pessimistic in the runs and on-base percentage considering his walk rate improved this year. Eaton makes for a solid third outfielder in most fantasy leagues.

 

David Peralta (ARI - OF)

2015 Statistics: 517 PA, .312/.371/.522, 61 R, 17 HR, 78 RBI, 9 SB

Peralta embodies the phrase, "talent wins out in the end." He entered 2015 with a cluttered Diamondbacks outfield that included Pollock, Mark Trumbo, Ender Inciarte, and Yasmany Tomas. He finished as part of one of the most underrated outfield trios (Inciarte-Pollock-Peralta) in baseball.

Peralta served as an excellent protector to Paul Goldschmidt in the D-backs lineup, turning 517 at-bats into 17 homers, 26 doubles, 10 triples, and an impressive .522 slugging percentage (8th among OF). His 26.7 runs above average on offense was good enough for ninth among outfielders.

He's always had the power; he posted a .507 SLG in the minors. The steals were a nice surprise; Peralta is a strong baserunner and the Diamondbacks like to steal (most in MLB), so don't be shocked when he posts a 20/10 season in 2016. His strikeout rate climbed even higher to 20.7%, but that comes with the territory for power hitters.

If the Diamondbacks let Peralta spend 2016 cleaning up with full-time at-bats, he has the potential to be a top 20 OF in fantasy. Steamer seems to side with the mentality of a clogged outfield, with a .281/.334/.449 split and 66/15/66/8 line. Put me down as bullish. I think Peralta will be a good third outfielder for most fantasy owners.

 

Cameron Maybin (DET - OF)

2015 Statistics: 555 PA, .267/.327/.370, 65 R, 10 HR, 59 RBI, 23 SB

Thrown in as a filler in the first Craig Kimbrel trade to San Diego, Maybin has now come full circle with his career as he returns to the Detroit Tigers. But that last move only happened thanks to his impressive 2015 with the Atlanta Braves.

Maybin was one of the few bright spots on dysfunctional Atlanta roster, playing above-average defense and swiping 23 bags (tied-10th among OF). Maybin was off to fast start, compiling a .289 average in the first half with 38 R, 8 HR, 44 RBI, and 15 SB.

Injuries derailed his second half (.240) and made me question if he belonged in this segment, but one must consider he cost nothing on draft day. And when I say nothing I mean he probably went undrafted as Atlanta hadn't yet decided on Maybin or Eric Young Jr.

If there's one bonus to Maybin's rough finish, it's the fact he isn't sought after as we head into 2016. Detroit is a much better fantasy situation than Atlanta, but I don't think you need me to tell you that. He should find himself batting leadoff ahead of Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera, and J.D. Martinez. Steamer isn't high on Maybin staying healthy, projecting a .263/.322/.382 split with a 53/8/46/14 line over 109 games. For the record, I'll project Maybin to play 130 games with 85 runs and 20 steals.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 


Check out RotoBaller's entire fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups and sleepers list, updated daily!




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pavel Dorofeyev

Doesn't Finish Game 5
Filip Gustavsson

Exits Early Due To Illness
Aaron Ekblad

Slapped With Two-Game Suspension
Aldrich Potgieter

Trending Downward For CJ Cup
Taylor Pendrith

Played Well In Houston Recently
PGA

Niklas Norgaard May Not Be Cut Out For Texas
Rasmus Hojgaard

Could Be Up Or Down In Texas
Ben Rice

Smacks Two Homers To End Slump
Jorge Polanco

Hits Two More Homers, Drives In Five
Scottie Scheffler

The Untouchable Favorite At CJ Cup
Tom Kim

A Popular Name To Avoid At TPC Craig Ranch
Austin Eckroat

Looking To Find Success Again At TPC Craig Ranch
Ben Kohles

Finishes Tied For 59 At Corales Puntacana Championship
Joel Dahmen

Finishes Tied For Second At Corales Puntacana Championship
Beau Hossler

Finishes Tied For 60 At Valero Texas Open
Doug Ghim

Finishes Tied For 18 At the Valero Texas Open
Jordan Spieth

Finishes Tied For 18 At RBC Heritage
Kurt Kitayama

Misses The Cut At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim

Finishes Tied For Eighth At RBC Heritage
George Kirby

"Feeling Great", Could Throw Again On Sunday
Tyler Fitzgerald

Returning To Starting Nine
Josh Lowe

Progressing Well, Could Play In Rehab Games On Saturday
Shane McClanahan

Begins "Throwing-Like" Activities
Patrik Laine

Remains Day-To-Day
Gabriel Vilardi

On Track To Return Wednesday
Brandon Hagel

Ruled Out For Game 5
Marcus Johansson

Returns To Action Tuesday
Cole Ragans

Won't Start On Wednesday
Dylan Moore

Placed On 10-Day Injured List With Hip Inflammation
Jonas Siegenthaler

Considered A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Brett Pesce

A Game-Time Call Tuesday
Yordan Alvarez

Back In Tuesday's Lineup
Frederik Andersen

Unavailable Tuesday
Aaron Nesmith

Upgraded To Available
Las Vegas Raiders

Jack Bech A Strong Candidate To Be An Immediate Starter
Las Vegas Raiders

Zamir White Competing For Depth Role
New York Jets

Mason Taylor To Immediately Be Atop Jets Tight End Depth Chart
Bennedict Mathurin

Cleared For Game 5
Buffalo Bills

Dalton Kincaid Setting Up As Post-Hype Sleeper In 2025?
Denver Broncos

Dre Greenlaw Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Seattle Seahawks

Sam Darnold To Take Over 90% Of The Snaps
Tennessee Titans

Titans In No Rush To Trade Will Levis
Daulton Varsho

Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Tuesday
Minnesota Vikings

J.J. McCarthy Says He Knows He's Ready To Start For Vikings
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Picking Up Fifth-Year Option On Dax Hill
Los Angeles Chargers

Chargers Apply Unrestricted Free-Agent Tender To J.K. Dobbins
Seattle Seahawks

Jaren Hall Cut Loose By Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Compare Josh Simmons To Christian Darrisaw, Rashawn Slater
Denver Broncos

Pat Bryant Compared To Michael Thomas
Denver Broncos

RJ Harvey Could Do It All For Broncos
Carolina Panthers

Tetairoa McMillan Likely To Man The X Spot For Panthers
Green Bay Packers

Packers, Jaire Alexander Continue To Discuss Potential Reunion
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Discussed George Pickens With Steelers
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs To Pick Up Fifth-Year Option On Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis
Washington Commanders

Matt Gays Signs One-Year Deal With Commanders
San Francisco 49ers

George Kittle Signs Four-Year Extension With 49ers
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Records Third Consecutive Double-Double
Brandin Podziemski

Hits Six Treys During 26-Point Performance
Jimmy Butler III

Leads Warriors In Scoring Monday Night
Jarrett Allen

Has Double-Double, Six Steals In Blowout Win
Brandon Boston Jr.

Recovering From Ankle Surgery
Kelly Olynyk

Undergoes Heel Procedure
Aaron Nesmith

Probable For Tuesday's Action
Nathan MacKinnon

Has Two Points In Losing Effort
Martin Necas

Records Two Assists In Game 5 Loss
Mikko Rantanen

Tallies Three Points In Monday's Win
Wyatt Johnston

Leads Stars To Game 5 Victory
Sergei Bobrovsky

Returns To Winning Ways
Anton Lundell

Earns Two Points Monday
Ryan Gerard

Going For A Texas Trifecta Of Sorts
Brandon Hagel

Departs Loss Early
Joe Highsmith

Hoping To Make More Putts In Texas
Eric Cole

Expecting Big Things In Texas
Brian Campbell

May Go Under The Radar At CJ Cup
Riley Greene

Homers Twice On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

Exits Monday's Win Early
Los Angeles Chargers

Tre Harris Expected To Fill X Role For Chargers
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Active For Game 4
Isaiah Stewart

Uncertain For Game 5
Michael Porter Jr.

Expected To Play In Game 5
Brandon Nimmo

Has Career Game
Russell Westbrook

Questionable For Tuesday Night
Tyler Glasnow

Going On The Injured List
Jaylen Brown

Back On The Injury Report
Jrue Holiday

Out Again On Tuesday Night
Bennedict Mathurin

Questionable For Game 5
Damian Lillard

May Not Play Next Season
Luis Arraez

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Johnathan Kovacevic

To Remain Out Tuesday
Brenden Dillon

Unavailable Tuesday
Luke Hughes

Not Ready To Return For Game 5
Darius Garland

Remains Out On Monday
Ross Colton

Remains Out On Monday
Jordan Westburg

Placed On Injured List
William Byron

Ends With A Strong Top-Five Finish At Talladega
Ryan Blaney

Bad Luck Continues With Talladega Crash
Kyle Larson

Has A Career-Best Performance At Talladega
Ian Machado Garry

Gets Back On Track With UFC Kansas City Win
Brad Keselowski

Talladega Run Ends Early After Crashing
Carlos Prates

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Zhang Mingyang

Still Undefeated In The UFC
Anthony Smith

Retires After UFC Kansas City Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous Decision Loss
Giga Chikadze

Takes Unanimous-Decision Loss
David Onama

Extends Win Streak At UFC Kansas City
Michel Pereira

Drops Decision At UFC Kansas City
Abus Magomedov

Extends His Win Streak
Nicolas Dalby

Gets Finished For The First Time
Randy Brown

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ikram Aliskerov

Gets First-Round TKO Finish At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Gets TKO'd At UFC Kansas City
Chase Elliott

Recovers from Speeding Penalty to Finish Fifth
Joey Logano

Finishes Last at Talladega After Disqualification for Missing Spoiler Brace
Ryan Preece

Loses Talladega Race First in Photo Finish Then in Post-Race Inspection
NASCAR

Poor Toyota Strategy Arguably Cost Bubba Wallace Winning Chances at Talladega
Christopher Bell

Unhurt After Hard Contact with Inside Retaining Wall
Joe Ryan

Posts Stellar Outing
Jaylen Brown

Available For Game 4
Nick Lodolo

Throws Seven Scoreless Innings
Tyler Glasnow

Removed Early On Sunday
Darius Garland

Questionable For Game 4
Jaden Ivey

Making Progress
Tarik Skubal

Racks Up 11 Strikeouts
Luke Weaver

In Line To Get The Bulk Of Save Opportunities Moving Forward
Chase Elliott

Is One OF The Top Overall DFS Picks Of The Week
Joey Logano

Could Joey Logano Finish A Race With A Top Finish At Talladega?
NASCAR

DFS Players Should Like Bubba Wallace For Talladega This Week
Christopher Bell

Should DFS Players Roster Christopher Bell At Talladega?
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering For Talladega DFS Lineups?
Shane Van Gisbergen

Is A Solid, Safe, DFS Choice For Talladega Lineups
Austin Dillon

Is Austin Dillon A Viable DFS Play At Talladega This Week?
Josh Berry

Qualifies Too High At Talladega To Be Worth Rostering In DFS
Michael McDowell

Should DFS Players Take A Shot On Michael McDowell At Talladega?
Noah Gragson

Could Be A Sneaky DFS Play For Talladega
Denny Hamlin

Probably Qualified Too Well for DFS Consideration
Kyle Larson

Increasingly Undervalued Due to His Crashing, but Still a Great DFS Option
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF