RADIO
As the chaos ensued around PGA National, Chris Kirk managed to survive a final hole water ball, to eventually secure his first win in some time in a playoff against Eric Cole. The rest of the field's best players disintegrated early in the tournament, while Shane Lowry and Sungjae Im never seemed to be in contention for any extended period of time.
Matt Kuchar opened his week with a +5 score which all but ended his chances of even seeing the weekend, never mind winning the event like we hoped. We expected carnage, which is what we got, and thankfully we limited the amount we bet on outrights last week. This week's weather forecast has us in the same shaky boat, as we have some left over cash to bet on a live winner if the odds allow. Let's dive into our card.
But before we do that, for those of you who are new to the article, Breaking $100 is a comprehensive PGA betting guide on how to squeeze every cent out of your $100. We will be breaking $100 into a betting card of outrights, first-round leaders, placings, and a "farewell fiver," all in an attempt to turn a structured betting strategy into a profitable and entertaining Sunday sweat. $100 is easily divided or multiplied, so please only bet amounts that you can afford to lose. You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me.
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Outrights
If you are interested in tailing along as soon as I place my bets, join our discord, where I share my picks as I make them, along with entertaining any other questions and conversations taking place there throughout the week. By the time I get to writing this article, odds have often shortened to varying degrees, so if you are interested in following along with the best numbers, jump into that discord.
Matt Kuchar was a monster disappointment last week, digesting the majority of our budget for outrights at 28-1 and then shooting +5 in round 1 to all but seal his fate before the tournament really ever began. He was playing incredibly well heading into the week, so that was something we did not see coming, but such is the nature of the beast.
We have another elevated event this week, which means its a field full of superstars. As the weather is expected to be ridiculously windy throughout the week, we will be adopting a quantity over quality approach to our betting card, trying to sneak as many guys as possible through to the weekend, if they can survive the Friday onslaught of wind. If they do, we feel that every one of them has the potential to win at this tough course.
Max Homa ($5.70 @ +2450 DraftKings *+2200 +250 boost)
We are back on Max at another elevated event, at a number that is more than appealing considering what he has done over the last few times he has played tough courses. He grades out particularly well on these kinds of venues, where scores are not much deeper than -10, with the fourth best scoring average on hard courses.
Homa also leads the field in putting over the last 24 rounds, which will be extremely necessary this week with heavy winds expected. All it takes is one good shot to make a par, and if it has to be a 12-foot par save, Max has been extremely comfortable over those of late. He also seems to be part of the PM/AM wave which is shaking out to be the more favorable side of the tee time draw.
A year ago he was ranked 44th in the world, and had finishes of T17, T10, and T24 around Bay Hill. He is now the 8th-best golfer in the world and enters the week with an array of shots and confidence this course has yet to see from him. Hopefully he can keep his run of impeccable form going, knowing that what is on his golf ID card is legit and more than enough to win another event this year.
Keegan Bradley ($1.90 @ +7500 FanDuel)
It has been a hot minute since we hit an outright and we are asking Alfred to fire up the bat signal for us. Keegan Bradley has finished runner up to Max Homa on two occasions since the Wells Fargo Championship. Bradley has been playing really well this season, too, finishing 2nd at the Farmers Insurance three starts ago.
In addition to his excellent form entering the week, Bradley has also enjoyed a run of success at Bay Hill that has seen him make 10 consecutive cuts at this venue, most recently going T11 and T10. Even when his putter was behaving like a rogue villain, he has typically putted better than normal here. Now, with his putter acting as his trusty side kick, we can expect him to light up the greens and hopefully win the API after coming close with a 2nd and 3rd in 2014 and 2013 respectively.
When the weather gets testy and conditions toughen up, Bradley's blue-collar nature tends to shine through. He has mentioned in interviews that abysmal conditions on the course help settle his nerves when he is in contention, which is what we will most likely get this weekend in Orlando. He will tee it up on the alleged favorable side of the draw, going off in the PM/AM wave. Be the hero we need, Keegan!
Tommy Fleetwood ($1.58 @ +9000 BetRivers)
We pegged Tommy Fleetwood to contend at Riviera, where around the green play may have been his secret weapon. After playing his way into the top-10 with the weekend still ahead of him, Fleetwood got stuck in neutral and floated back to T20. He now heads to Bay Hill where he has finishes of T20, T10, MC, and T3 in his last four starts, with a fantastic chance of winning his first PGA Tour event on US soil.
At a course that has required exceptional scrambling ability in the past, we can expect that to remain true, if not even more essential this week with the heavy winds. Fleetwood ranks as the best around the greens in my model which is about a year and a half worth of data. He has exceptional touch from the thick cabbage that surrounds these Bermuda surfaces that we are hoping he can find some confidence on too. If Tommy can thrive in the wind, he can win it all!
Justin Rose ($1.43 @ +10000 BetRivers enhanced odds tab)
Justin Rose does not have much to boast about from a recent form perspective, with his putter ranking 14th over the last 24 rounds. The rest of his game, compared to the studs in this field, has not quite been there even though he won at Pebble Beach a few weeks ago. We really like Rose in the wind, which he managed to navigate quite well on the west coast. He will be teeing it up in the PM/AM wave, which we like.
Bay Hill Club and Lodge has one of the stickiest course histories on tour. Justin Rose has finishes of MC, WD, MC, T63 in his last four appearances here. This is misleading on many fronts. The WD in 2021 came after making the cut and gaining 7 strokes on the field through two rounds. If we turn back the clock a little, Rose has six top-15 finishes in the seven starts spanning from 2011 to 2018, which includes three top-3 results.
If Rose continues to trend towards his old self and conditions get tricky, his course history and recent form could turn into yet another victorious whirl wind of success. It would also be very on brand for Rosie to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational presented by Master Card, who he has been an ambassador for quite some time.
Seamus Power ($1.43 @ +10000 BetRivers enhanced odds tab)
The only outright selection that will be part of the AM/PM wave, having to survive the brutal afternoon winds expected on Friday. Seamus Power is on a run of consistency that has to eventually lead to another victory. Power made the cut at three of the four majors finishing MC. T12, T9 and T27 in his maiden starts at all four majors. Big moments appeal to him, playing well on tough tracks in strong fields.
His run of consistency we mentioned is eight consecutive T25 finishes since his win at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. He placed T14 at the Genesis Invitational, surging up the leaderboard on Saturday before a snap-hook induced triple bogey ended his chances to try and catch Rahm and Homa who were racing away from the field already.
Seamus has fantastic tough on and around the greens, which will be crucial to success this week. If he somehow survives the wind and sneaks into contention, Power has been quietly collecting infinity stones each week, waiting for the right moment to arrive on the scene with his first big win of his career, declaring himself as the Irish Thanos of the golf world.
??? ($3.13 @ +4000)
We still have some budget left over to potentially pounce on a stray number that the books leave out there. This wind is going to see golfers surging up and spiraling down the leaderboard, and we have left ourselves a little pocket money to pull the trigger on somebody like Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, or Rory McIlroy if they get off to a slow start and fall to 40-1 at some point.
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End of the Season Totals: @rotoballer @BettorGolfPod
2017 +54.26 Units
2018 +55.88 Units
2019 +27.743 Units
2020 + 37.015 Units
2021 + 68.846 Units
2022 +67.485 UnitsTotal Winnings: +311.229 Units
Total Outright Wins Since 2017: 36
H2H Totals Inside Thread… https://t.co/pNQrSK1rFE
— Spencer Aguiar (@TeeOffSports) December 12, 2022
Placings
We are edging our way back to profitability, breaking dead even on our placement card. We have Ben Taylor to thank for that, as he was the only golfer who bet on to cash a ticket, at +450. Kuchar and Detry landed up shooting +5 and +6 in round 1 which was really disappointing, while Mark Hubbard finished a painful T42.
- Matt Kuchar +130 T20 -$5
- Thomas Detry +165 T20 -$5
- Ben Taylor +450 T20 +$25
- Mark Hubbard +150 T40 -$5 (T42...)
- Aaron Baddeley +175 T40 -$5
- Chris Stroud +275 T40 -$5
This week's bets:
- Patrick Cantlay +110 T20 $5
- Tommy Fleetwood +100 T40 $5
- Keegan Bradley -110 T40 $5.50
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +175 T40 $5
- Seamus Power -105 T40 $5
Matchups
My favorite golf bet to place, as it is one of the safer bets that can be placed, and you can still cash in on a matchup even if our guy misses the cut. We plugged in 20+ matchups into the model and yet AGAIN, the books refuse to provide us with any bettable lines in the matchup market.
A Look Into The Future
With all the majors behind us, we now have an opportunity to identify odds for majors, which may be drastically shorter by the time the week of the event rolls into our lives. We are going to give ourselves a budget of $12 to spend on futures for each major to return $200, which is double our usual return, but we are investing double the capital (futures + week of) to have double the fun in major weeks.
The Players
Tom Kim ($5.60 @ +4000 on DraftKings)
After just winning his second event in back-to-back regular season starts, Tom Kim is a star that is burning bright, and if he continues to play the quality of golf we have now become accustomed to, 40-1 will not be available the week of The Players, especially if he wins again before then. TPC Sawgrass puts a premium on driving accuracy and stellar approach play, which could not suit Tom's game any better. This may be my favorite of the two futures bets we have placed so far.
The Masters
Max Homa ($2.80 @ +8000 on PointsBet)
If you take a look at the odds board, the players around Max Homa at 80-1 are relics, who have either fled to LIV, required some sort of exemption to remain on tour, or are just straight-up bad at golf. Homa has won four times in the last two years and just proved that he can handle immense pressure on the biggest of stages, sinking clutch putts at the Presidents Cup a week after winning at the Fortinet.
His game translates incredibly well to what Augusta requires from its past winners. Golfers with distance off the tee, impeccable iron play and imagination, and touch on and around the greens have had success at one of golf's most treasured venues. Max does all three of those really well and after making his first cut in three tries last year, he should be a serious contender when he returns there next year.
The Farewell Fiver
Top 10: Keegan Bradley $5 +550
We are still not betting the full $100 of our budget until we see a turnaround in results, which may start happening more often the more data we collect.
Last week Benny An had the 6th worst score in round 4 (+3) to finish T21, an even par round would have been good enough to get to T10 +500. Oh well, we keep trying to hit this hail Mary of a bet. Keegan Bradley has had a T11 and T10 in his last two laps around this course, so we will be holding him to a T10 +550 on FanDuel. Good luck this week, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!!
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