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Mike Fanelli gives his fantasy football bold predictions for Week 17 of the NFL season, giving fantasy players something to think about when setting their lineups.
Week 17 is here, and I’m back with another edition of fantasy football bold predictions. This week’s list of bold predictions will include Brock Purdy, Saquon Barkley, D'Andre Swift, Davante Adams, and Darren Waller.
Every week, I will provide some fun and bold fantasy football predictions. While these bold predictions aren’t the most likely outcomes, they are things I believe could happen this week.
Let’s look at my five bold predictions for Week 17 of the 2023 NFL season.
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Brock Purdy…
Gets back in the MVP race with a massive performance
The San Francisco 49ers have been arguably the top team in the NFL most of the year. Purdy has played well most weeks, totaling two or more passing touchdowns in over half of the games. More importantly, he is the QB5 for the season, averaging 18.5 fantasy points per game despite not getting drafted in most fantasy football leagues. Last week, the second-year quarterback had -150 odds from DraftKings to be the NFL MVP.
However, Purdy had a massive Week 16 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. He and Lamar Jackson were in a close two-man race to potentially win the MVP award. While Jackson had an impressive performance, Purdy had the worst game of his career. The former Iowa State star had zero passing touchdowns for only the second time this year. Furthermore, he had a career-high four interceptions despite not finishing the game.
Following last week’s performance, Purdy has fallen to fourth in MVP odds (+1200) behind Jackson, Christian McCaffrey, and Tua Tagovailoa. However, his Week 17 matchup against the Washington Commanders is exactly what the betting doctor ordered. The Commanders have the worst pass defense in the NFL, giving up the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (20.6). Purdy will rip apart Washington’s awful defense, throw four touchdowns, and get back in the MVP conversation.
Saquon Barkley…
Will be a massive bust in Week 17
Unfortunately, the New York Giants were eliminated from playoff contention following last week’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. Barkley had a solid fantasy performance, totaling 23 rushing attempts for 80 yards and a touchdown. He also had three receptions for four receiving yards against the NFC East division leaders, scoring 17.9 half-point PPR fantasy points in defeat. Yet, fantasy players shouldn’t trust that performance.
Barkley scored nearly half his fantasy points against the Eagles on his rushing touchdown and two-point conversion. Furthermore, the superstar running back has averaged only 3.8 yards per touch and a 16% missed tackle forced per attempt rate over the past four games (per Fantasy Points Data). He has scored fewer than 6.7 fantasy points in three of the past six contests. More importantly, his matchup this week is awful for fantasy players.
The former Penn State star faces a Los Angeles Rams' defense that has held running backs to 14.6 fantasy points per game in 2023, the second-fewest in the NFL. They have given up only one rushing touchdown to a running back since Week 7. Furthermore, the Rams have allowed running backs to average only 48 rushing yards and nine fantasy points per game over the past three weeks. Sitting Barkley in the fantasy championship game might be difficult, but he is destined to have a poor fantasy outing.
D'Andre Swift…
Will be the overall RB1
Last week, Swift had a strong fantasy showing against the New York Giants. He had 20 rushing attempts for 92 yards and a touchdown, scoring 15.2 half-point PPR fantasy points in the victory. The veteran running back had his second-most rushing attempts and third-most rushing yards this season in Week 16. Yet, he had been on an awful cold streak before the matchup against the NFC East division rivals.
Swift was the RB40 from Week 12 through Week 15, averaging only 6.1 fantasy points per game. He scored fewer than nine fantasy points in every game, including less than four twice. Yet, the veteran running back was earning touches, averaging 12.3 rushing attempts per game, seeing at least 11 in all but one contest. However, Swift faced multiple elite run defenses during that cold streak. Thankfully, he couldn’t have asked for a more fantasy-friendly matchup in Week 17.
The Arizona Cardinals have surrendered 26.6 fantasy points per game to running backs, the most in the NFL. They have given up the second-most rushing yards and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns to running backs this season. More importantly, they gave up nearly 150 rushing yards to the Chicago Bears' struggling backfield last week. Swift might have his second 200-yard rushing performance this year.
Davante Adams…
Costs fantasy players championships
Many had concerns about Adams entering the season after the Las Vegas Raiders replaced Derek Carr with Jimmy Garoppolo. The superstar has been a consistent top-five wide receiver over the past several years. However, he is only the WR20 in 2023, averaging 11.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Adams has had some positive performances this season. Yet, he is in the middle of a cold streak.
The wide receiver has scored fewer than 9.9 fantasy points in eight of the past 11 games. Furthermore, Adams hasn’t scored double-digit fantasy points in three of the past four contests. While the veteran had 101 receiving yards and 20.1 fantasy points two weeks ago against the Los Angeles Chargers, Adams was awful last week. He had only one reception on six targets for four receiving yards and 0.9 fantasy points against the Kansas City Chiefs on Christmas Day.
Unfortunately, Adams has an unfriendly fantasy matchup in Week 17 against the Indianapolis Colts. They have held wide receivers to 24.3 fantasy points per game, the seventh-fewest in the NFL. The Colts have done an excellent job shutting down opposing No. 1 wide receivers lately. Over the past three weeks, opposing No. 1 wide receivers have averaged 43.3 receiving yards and eight fantasy points per game against Indianapolis. Expect Adams to struggle to close out the fantasy football playoffs.
Darren Waller…
Turns out to be a league winner
Fantasy players had high hopes for Waller in his first year with the New York Giants. The tight end has been a fantasy star in the past. However, injuries have altered his career. He was the TE5 over the first seven weeks, averaging 8.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game despite having only one receiving touchdown. Unfortunately, a hamstring injury derailed his season right when he was playing at his best.
Waller had scored 12.6 or more fantasy points in two of three games before suffering a hamstring injury in Week 8 against the New York Jets. Furthermore, he had his best performance of the year in Week 7 against the Washington Commanders, totaling seven receptions on eight targets for 98 receiving yards, a touchdown, and a season-high 19.3 fantasy points. While the tight end hasn’t been outstanding since returning from the hamstring injury, Waller has league-winning upside in Week 17.
The tight end faces the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday. The Rams have struggled with opposing tight ends, surrendering 11.5 fantasy points per game, the fourth-most in the NFL. Furthermore, they’ve had no answers for tight ends lately. Over the past five weeks, tight ends have averaged 12.5 fantasy points per game against Los Angeles, scoring three touchdowns. Waller has an appealing matchup this week and will be a league winner.
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