X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 23

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 23, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

The NL Central is our center of attention this week, as we'll be looking at two interesting starts from hurlers in the heartland that occurred last week. We'll be breaking down the return of longtime big leaguer Wade Miley in Chicago, and we'll be looking at perhaps the best start of Luis Cessa's career in Cincinnati.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 09/12/2022.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Wade Miley, Chicago Cubs – 16% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 23 IP, 3.13 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 8.3% K-BB%

09/11 vs. SFG: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 K

Always battling injury, Miley has spent most of 2022 on the shelf for Chicago, with his two starts last week representing his first MLB action since June 10th due to a shoulder strain. Miley’s second outing went much better than his first, as Miley held the Giants to just one run over five innings in the no-decision. The Cubs may be long out of the race, but Miley presents an interesting option for fantasy teams still in it. Can Miley be a late-season contributor, or should fantasy managers pass this lefty over?

A 10-year veteran of the big leagues, Miley’s fantasy value has oscillated quite a bit over his long career. He was an exciting up-and-comer in the early 2010s with Arizona, lost his mojo and became an afterthought in the mid-2010s, and then underwent a resurgence with Milwaukee and Houston before inking a two-year deal with a club option for 2022 with Cincinnati in 2019. In a move of exceptional cheapness, the Reds let Miley go instead of paying him the better-than-market salary of $10 million, which is how he wound up on the Cubs, his eighth big league team.

Miley may be on his eighth team, but despite all the uniform changes over the years, he still uses the same approach on the mound, more or less. Miley technically throws six pitches, though the sinker and curveball are used less than 3% of the time by him. In practice, he normally works with four pitches, a four-seamer, cutter, slider, and changeup.

Miley did throw his sinker and curve more often in past seasons, but part of his late-career resurgence was Miley phasing out ineffective pitches in favor of his stronger options. That’s been the case for Miley when healthy this year as well, as he’s leaned heavily on his cutter and changeup. The cutter has been a career-saving pitch for Wade Miley, as his transition from a sinker-heavy approach to a cutter-heavy approach was the main driver behind his success. To demonstrate this, here’s a look at Miley’s pitch usage by season.

He didn’t even throw a cutter until 2017, and it quickly became his most used pitch (brown line). Notice too how his sinker (orange) really drops off over that same time period.

A hybrid between his four-seam and slider, Miley’s cutter is characterized by sharp horizontal movement, making it closer to a breaking ball than a fastball on the cutter spectrum. Batters have struggled against the pitch this season, posting just a .222 AVG, .361 SLG, and .293 wOBA against the pitch.

Miley’s cutter excels best at inducing weak contact, as opponents have an 88 MPH average exit velocity off the cutter this season along with a 53% groundball rate. The exit velocity number is a bit high by Miley’s standards (he was at 83.5 MPH last season), but that can be attributed to a rough first outing and a small sample size. Here’s a graph outlining the average exit velocity against his cutter game-by-game this season.

The first start really threw the overall number out of whack and going forward one would expect Miley to induce weak contact at similar rates to his past seasons.

So, Miley can induce soft contact. Big deal, right? That’s good for the Cubs, but we’re fantasy players, which means we want to chase those juicy strikeouts. Strikeouts have long been an area of deficiency for Miley, but 2022 has been a different story for him in the starts he’s made. Miley has a career-high 11.3% swinging strike rate and his 20% K rate is his best since 2014. Both of these numbers are pedestrian by today’s standards, but there’s still reason for encouragement when considered in context with Miley’s pitch usage.

Miley has begun throwing two pitches—the changeup and slider—more frequently in 2022, which may be leading to increased strikeout numbers. Miley’s 29.2% changeup usage is the highest of his career, and his 7.5% slider usage is his highest since 2017, the year he introduced the cutter. It seems that Miley might be shifting his game ever so slightly, and if these changes are here to stay, then he could be a better strikeout pitcher than in years past.

It’s a small sample, but his slider has a 29% swinging strike rate this season, while his changeup has a 20.7% swinging strike rate and a monster 44.4% chase rate. These numbers might be inflated a bit, but the changeup and slider have long been Miley’s best punchout pitches, and he could begin to put up more formidable strikeout numbers with increased usage. He won’t be Gerrit Cole or anything, but a 20% strikeout rate is possible for Miley.

Even if his strikeout numbers improve, strikeouts were never the reason someone added or considered Wade Miley for their fantasy team. Miley is added as a boring, reliable veteran arm that (when healthy) can deliver 5-7 solid innings for most of his starts. There’s nothing in his profile that would suggest Miley has lost it or will be irreparably damaged by his injury, making him a solid, sneaky player to add for the final few weeks.

Verdict:

Miley is, for the most part, the same pitcher he’s been for the past few seasons. Injury prone and unexciting, but able to consistently produce results thanks to a heavy diet of cutters and changeups that induce weak contact with regularity. A jump in changeup and slider usage is interesting as it could lead to better strikeout numbers from Miley than we’ve seen in past seasons, but he’ll likely struggle to eclipse a 20% strikeout rate. Add if you need help with ratios or volume for the past few weeks. He won’t save your season, but he likely won’t tank it either.

 

Luis Cessa, Cincinnati Reds – 5% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 48.2 IP, 5.18 ERA, 5.48 FIP, 8.8 K-BB%

09/08 @ CHC: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 8 K

Cessa had his best start as a Red, perhaps even the best start of his career on Thursday in Chicago. Cessa fanned eight Cubs over five and two-thirds in the no decision. The eight strikeouts tie a career-high from 2017, and it was the first time Cessa made it past the fifth inning since July 25, 2018.

Cessa entered Cincinnati’s rotation in late August and has had mixed results (3.78 ERA, 5.04 FIP in four starts), but made a pretty big statement on Thursday and may emerge as a late-season asset if he can sustain this productivity. Is there something more here with Cessa, or was this just a flash in the pan?

For those who follow international signings and prospects, it probably feels like Cessa has been around forever. He originally signed with the Mets back in 2008 as an international free agent and has spent most of his time in the big leagues as a reliever with the Yankees before coming to Cincy in a deadline swap last season. Cessa hadn’t started a game since 2018 prior to this year, but necessity forced Cincinnati’s hand in making him a starter.

Cessa seems to have a starter’s repertoire, using a four-seam fastball, sinker, changeup, and slider on the mound. Cessa’s arsenal used to be much more simplistic, with him leaning almost exclusively on the fastball and slider. He’s incorporated his other pitches more frequently in the past couple of seasons, but Cessa still lives and dies with the four-seamer and slider, especially relying on the latter pitch for strikeouts.

It was all about the slider in this start against the Cubs for Cessa, as he threw the pitch 45% of the time and earned 10 of his 13 whiffs with the offering. Cessa’s slider has been nearly impossible to hit for opponents all season, with batters posting a paltry .176 AVG and .292 wOBA off the pitch this season. Opponents have fared a little better in the power department with a .412 SLG against the slider,  but it’s still been Cessa’s best pitch this year.

What makes Cessa’s slider so effective is the exceptional movement he gets with the pitch. Cessa’s slider has nearly two additional inches of break and nearly five additional inches of drop compared to the league average. At 2529 RPM, Cessa also has one of the higher spin rates you will see with a slider. Here are a few examples from this start.

.

With the high spin, strong vertical movement, and relatively low velocity the pitch resembles a slurve more than a true slider. Cessa threw a curveball when he first came up to the majors, using it alongside his slider, but the two pitches seem to have melded into one for a plus offering.

The problem is that, outside of the slider, there isn’t much to like about Cessa’s game. His primary fastball is a mid-90s sinker that’s lost a tick since he’s joined the rotation. He does have a 54.5% groundball rate with the pitch, but opponents are still hitting .333 with a .347 wOBA off Cessa’s sinker this season. Cessa also throws a changeup, which has been pulverized for a .372 AVG, .465 SLG, and .378 wOBA this season.

One saving grace for Cessa may be that his pitch selection has varied quite a bit by role this year. He was all about the sinker out of the bullpen, but the sinker has taken a backseat to his four-seamer since joining the rotation. Here’s a look at his sinker (top) and four-seam (bottom) usage by game this season.

The four-seam usage is on an upward trajectory while the sinker is slowly being phased out. Although his sinker has been hit hard this season, this would be a lateral move for Cessa as both pitches have performed about equally for Cessa over his career. His four-seam fastball might have a .250 AVG against this season, but Cessa has surrendered an outlandish .710 SLG and .374 wBOA off his four-seamer this season.

Cessa has allowed 1.66 HR/9 this season and given up four bombs in four starts since joining the rotation. His 21.3% HR/FB ratio will likely regress to something more in line with league average, but he may still struggle with the longball, especially pitching in Great American Ballpark.

Verdict:

While this start was nice to see, the fact is that Cessa’s slider isn’t good enough to overcome the mediocrity of his other pitches. He might flash a nice outing like this one here or there, but let’s not forget that it took injuries to Graham Ashcraft, Hunter Greene, Vladimir Gutierrez, and TJ Zeuch for Cessa to even crack the rotation, and there’s a reason for that.

He has value as an NL-Only spot starter or deep league desperation play, but if you’re battling things out in a heated roto race or in a head-to-head playoff scenario, you’re probably best served without Luis Cessa in your lineup.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Bryce Eldridge

Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

Blue Jackets Acquire Ivan Fedotov From Flyers
Aaron Jones Sr.

Injures Hamstring During Sunday Night Football
Darren Waller

Not Expected to Play in Week 3
Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
Jameson Williams

Records Long Touchdown in Week 2, Still Limited to Downfield Role?
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Jayden Daniels

Considered "Day-to-Day" with Knee Injury
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Exits with Back Tightness
Jonathan Taylor

Tops 200 Yards From Scrimmage in Week 2 Win
Joe Burrow

Could Miss Three Months if he Requires Toe Surgery
Davante Adams

Headlines Rams Receiving Corps Sunday
Wan'Dale Robinson

Explodes for 142 Yards, Touchdown in Overtime Thriller
Joe Flacco

Browns Not Considering Benching Joe Flacco After Week 2
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
Luis Arraez

Takes a Seat on Sunday With Head Injury
Adolis García

Adolis Garcia Activated, Starting on Sunday
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
Bryan Woo

Records Career-High 13 Strikeouts
Max Muncy

Exits Early on Saturday
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Salvador Perez

Reaches 300 Home Runs, 1,000 RBI
Jose Altuve

Exits Early With Foot Discomfort
Trey Yesavage

Heading to Big Leagues
Will Smith

Placed on 10-Day Injured List
Ivan Demidov

Turning Heads in Rookie Camp
NHL

Calvin de Haan Signs With Swedish Team
Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

Dealing With Injury Ahead of Training Camp
Spencer Knight

Signs Three-Year Extension With Blackhawks
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Corey Perry

Out 6-8 Weeks Following Surgery
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Dealing With a "Tweak"
BUF

Alexandar Georgiev Joins Sabres on One-Year Deal
Corey Perry

Injured During Pre-Camp Skate
CFB

Antonio Williams Out Against Georgia Tech
CFB

CJ Bailey Flashes Again in Win Over Wake Forest
CFB

Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
Jean Silva

A Favorite At Noche UFC 3
Diego Lopes

Set For Noche UFC 3 Main Event
Rob Font

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
David Martinez

Set For Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
Rafa Garcia

An Underdog At Noche UFC 3
Jared Gordon

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Dustin Stoltzfus

Looks To Return To The Win Column
Kelvin Gastelum

In Dire Need Of Victory
Diego Ferreira

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Malcolm Brogdon

Heading to Knicks on One-Year Deal
CFB

David Sanders Jr. Won't Play Against Georgia
Landry Shamet

Staying with the Knicks
CFB

Dylan Edwards Slated to Return on Friday
Adam Lowry

Aims for Early-Season Return
CFB

Ryan Williams Expected to Play Against Wisconsin
CFB

Billy Edwards Jr. Unlikely to Play on Saturday
P.J. Washington

Officially Signs Contract Extension
Lauri Markkanen

Big at Both Ends as Finland Books Place in EuroBasket Semis
Luka Dončić

Luka Doncic Notches 39 Points in Losing Effort
NBA

Cam Reddish Expected to Move to Europe
NBA

Trey Lyles Joins Real Madrid
Charles Bassey

Signs Exhibit 10 Deal With Hawks
Sacramento Kings

Terence Davis Waived by Kings
Matthew Knies

Ready for Bigger Role With Maple Leafs
Jack Eichel

Unbothered by Lack of Extension
Sidney Crosby

Not Thinking About Leaving Pittsburgh
SJ

Michael Misa Signs Entry-Level Contract With Sharks
Rutger McGroarty

Nursing an Injury

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP