Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Ryne Nelson and Hayden Birdsong

July 23, 2024

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SPs could emerge as fantasy baseball waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 18, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 18 of the 2024 fantasy baseball season. We've got two exciting young right-handers out west this week. First, we'll break down Ryne Nelson's nine-strikeout performance against the Cubs on Friday. Then, we'll deep dive into Hayden Birdsong's dominant 12-strikeout outing in Colorado on Sunday.

For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo! and are accurate as of July 22.

Ryne Nelson, Arizona Diamondbacks -- 10% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 86.2 IP, 4.98 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 10.3% K-BB%
7/19 @ CHC: 5.2 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 9 K

Nelson returned from the All-Star break with a bang on Friday, fanning a career-high nine Cubs en route to his seventh victory of the season. Nelson also lowered his ERA following this start, but it still sits at a bloated 4.78 on the year. Still, Nelson has pitched to a 2.22 ERA in four July appearances thus far. Is the young righty turning a corner, or is this just a fluke?

Originally a second-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2019, Nelson wasn’t a big prospect on a national level. He did crack one major top-100 list, which was Baseball America in 2022, which ranked him as the No. 96 prospect in baseball that year. Nelson was projected to be a back-end starter or swingman for the Diamondbacks, but injuries have thrust him into a stable rotation role. Nelson works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, cutter, slider, changeup, and curveball. He may have a lot of different options in his toolbox, but Nelson relied heavily on two pitches in this outing, which were the fastball and slider.

Nelson leaned on what worked for him in this start, and that was his four-seam fastball. A 95 mph offering, Nelson’s four-seamer has average spin at 2,221 RPM, but is above average in vertical movement by 13%. Nelson’s fastball was on fire against the Cubs, as he earned 11 of his 12 whiffs with the pitch. He had a 31% whiff rate with the pitch in this start, which is 10% higher than his season average. Nelson didn’t have increased velocity or spin in this start, so it’s hard to connect these outcomes to tangible improvements. One area that has changed for him is his fastball usage. Nelson has averaged a 68.5% fastball usage rate over his last three starts, compared to a 53.1% usage rate on the season. He hadn’t thrown his fastball more than 56.6% of the time in any given start prior to July, but has used the pitch at least 63.2% of the time during his July starts.

It's not just increased usage for Nelson, but improved location. He’s been peppering in high fastballs all season, but he’s really emphasized the high heat as of late. Here is a comparison of Nelson’s fastball usage prior to July and during his last three starts.

Pre-July:

July:

His usage above the zone really increased over this time period, and the results have been outstanding. Prior to July 7, batters were hitting .285 with a .436 SLG off Nelson’s fastball, but over his last three starts batters have a microscopic .051 AVG and .154 SLG off Nelson’s four-seamer. Of course, he had a .367 BABIP against the fastball prior to July 7 and a .048 BABIP after, but it’s hard to look past such positive outcomes. He definitely won’t sustain such a low BABIP, but with changes to his approach, we might be able to expect better outcomes from Nelson’s fastball going forward. The 11 whiffs seem like an outlier and the Cubs are tied for the sixth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, so I wouldn’t expect big strikeout numbers from Nelson every time out, even with these changes.

The fastball may have been Nelson’s most used pitch, but it wasn’t the only tool he used to get the job done. He also featured a slider 18% of the time, which is also an increase over his season average usage. Nelson has only thrown his slider 10.7% of the time this season, and Friday marked his second-highest slider usage of the season, only behind his first appearance of the year. Batters have struggled against the pitch this season, batting just .226 with a .387 SLG and .252 wOBA against. Opponents have really struggled to square the ball up against Nelson’s slider, with an average exit velocity of 86 mph and an average launch angle of six degrees.

Weak contact is about the only saving grace for this pitch because the underlying strikeout metrics are pitiful. Nelson earned exactly zero whiffs with his slider in this start, and that’s despite putting up a career-high in strikeouts. He also has an abysmal 7.5% swinging strike rate and 26.7% chase rate with his slider on the year. This just isn’t a good strikeout weapon, and since it’s been acting as Nelson’s primary breaking ball, Nelson won’t be a good strikeout pitcher.

Strikeouts certainly aren’t everything, but in fantasy pitchers who don’t get strikeouts must overcome the deficiency by excelling in other areas. Nelson hasn’t done that. He has a decent walk rate at 5.5%, but he also has a 1.39 WHIP and 4.40 SIERA. Sure, maybe he’s been a hair unlucky with his .323 BABIP, but even if that regresses to league average that doesn’t leave much room for improvement on his ratios. Furthermore, Nelson pitches for a .500 team that can’t reliably deliver him wins. He just doesn’t do anything well enough to warrant shouldering the downside.

Verdict:

Nelson has made some interesting changes to his fastball and slider usage, but it’s too early to say whether he’s turned a corner. He may have a 2.22 ERA in July, but there are still plenty of concerns fantasy managers should have before putting Nelson in their starting lineups. He can’t reliably earn whiffs or wins, which are two of the most important stats we look for in standard 5x5 leagues. He also carries some heavy ratio risk with his 4.78 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the season. I think Nelson could be better in the second half, but he isn’t much of a fantasy asset outside of deep leagues.

Hayden Birdsong, San Francisco Giants -- 9% Rostered

2024 Stats (prior to this start): 19.1 IP, 3.72 ERA, 5.17 FIP, 9.5% K-BB%
7/21 @ COL: 6 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 12 K

Birdsong was fantastic on Sunday, going into Coors Field and fanning 12 Rockies while improving his record to 2-0 on the year. Birdsong now owns a 3.55 ERA and a 10.66 K/9 through five career starts, and fantasy managers are certainly wondering if this is another rookie breakout in 2024. He is still available in over 90% of Yahoo! leagues, so we’re still early enough to get this worm, but is it worth being the early bird on Birdsong?

Originally a sixth-round pick in 2022 by the Giants, Birdsong rose through the minors and was ranked as high as the No. 4 prospect and No. 2 pitcher in San Francisco’s system in 2024. He was projected as a mid-rotation starter, and he’s delivered on that potential thus far. Birdsong works with a four-pitch mix, consisting of a four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, and changeup. Birdsong had been hammering his fastball through his first four starts, but he pivoted in this one to much success.

Birdsong threw his fastball 48% of the time in his first four starts, but that usage dropped to 28.6% against the Rockies on Sunday. Why? Birdsong began relying on his curveball and slider much more often, throwing each pitch 33.7% of the time in this start. We’ll start with his curveball, which racked up 12 of his astonishing 27 whiffs in this start. A traditional curveball at 81.2 mph, Birdsong’s curve has plus spin at 2,844 RPM, though it has slightly below-average vertical and horizontal movement. Here’s an example from this start.

Looks like a solid secondary offering there. Birdsong probably won’t earn this many strikeouts with the pitch going forward, but this has the makings of a decent breaking ball.

And then there’s his slider. An 86.4 mph offering, Birdsong’s slider also has above-average spin at 2,493 RPM, but also has rather pedestrian movement for a slider. Here’s an example from this start.

Not a ton of movement there, and that’s been the story for Birdsong, who has below-average break with his slider. He did earn an impressive 10 whiffs on 17 swings with the pitch in this start, but we might be able to chalk some of that up to the Rockies being a weak opponent. Colorado has the third-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching and the second-lowest wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season. Even at home in the hitter’s paradise that is Coors Field, the Rockies struggle, including a 24.5% team strikeout rate and a collective 81 wRC+ at home. Just a pitiful lineup and Birdsong took full advantage.

Birdsong may have thrown his fastball less often in this start, but he still used the pitch 29% of the time. A 95.8 mph offering, Birdsong’s fastball boasts plus velocity and spin at 2,269 RPM. Batters have hit .265 against the pitch, but have a .500 SLG and .637 xSLG, along with an ugly .460 xwOBA. It’s easy to see why Birdsong de-emphasized the pitch in this outing and instead relied on his breaking balls more often. Birdsong’s fastball was considered one of his best pitches as a prospect thanks to plus velocity, but we’ll need to see better performances from the pitch at the major league level before we can trust it.

While none of these pitches stands out as an elite offering, Birdsong does have three solid pitches at his disposal, and that’s a big plus for pitchers trying to make it as a starter in the big leagues. Don’t expect 12 strikeouts every game, but Birdsong did have an impressive 30.7% strikeout rate at Double-A prior to his promotion. Control may be an issue for Birdsong as he’s walked 11.3% of batters thus far in the majors, and had a 10.1% walk rate at Double-A. He even had an ugly 32% zone rate with his fastball in this one, but Colorado hitters chased enough breaking balls that it didn’t matter. He’s issued multiple walks in each of his first five starts as well, which not only raises his WHIP but his pitch count, meaning Birdsong may struggle to pitch deep into games. His start against Colorado on Sunday marks the first time in the majors that he’s pitched beyond five innings.

Verdict:

A 12-strikeout start from a low-rostered pitcher will always turn heads, especially when it happens in Coors Field. Birdsong displayed a strong arsenal between his fastball, curveball, and slider on Sunday, and he has the stuff to make it as a big leaguer. That being said, it’s probably not worth using a lot of FAAB to acquire Birdsong. This start was most likely his best of the season, and he doesn’t have a guaranteed role in San Francisco. Alex Cobb and Robbie Ray could both return soon, which would bump Birdsong from the rotation. Birdsong also carries control and efficiency risks. He struggles to throw strikes, which leads to walks and high pitch counts. We can’t trust Birdsong to go beyond the fifth inning reliably. He’s worth the add if he can be acquired on the cheap, but I wouldn’t spend more than five to 10% of your remaining FAAB on him.

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