Are You For Real? Fantasy Football Outlooks for Sam Howell, Jahmyr Gibbs, Trey McBride, more

November 3, 2023

Justin looks at surprising fantasy football performances from Sam Howell, Jahmyr Gibbs, Trey McBride and more. Are these players emerging fantasy assets?

Week 8 of the NFL is behind us and it's time to look ahead to next week's action. There were some surprising performances in the eighth week of the season, but were those surprising performances a sign of things to come for players?

Every week, I'll be looking at three to five NFL players whose numbers from the week before were better than expected. I'll be analyzing their games and making sense of what their showings mean in the larger scheme of things.

Below, you'll find an analysis of the biggest fantasy football surprises of Week 8. Are those surprising results a fact, i.e. a sign of good things to come, or a fiction, i.e. an anomalous result?

Sam Howell, Washington Commanders

Last Week: QB1

I feel like I've been on the Sam Howell train for a while now. I thought he was the best QB in his draft class at the beginning of his final collegiate season and while I ended up viewing Malik Willis as my QB1 in the 2022 NFL Draft by the time the actual draft happened, I still thought Howell shouldn't have slipped to the fifth round. The Commanders got a very clear steal there.

Howell's first season as a full-time starter has had its ups and downs. For example, he had four picks back in Week 3 against the Bills, a loss that kicked off a three-game losing streak for the Commanders. On Sunday against the Eagles, Howell had his best game. He was 39-for-52 for 397 yards with four touchdowns in a loss to the Eagles. He was picked off once.

The Commanders aren't a very good team. They also traded away two defenders at the deadline, making the team even worse. That should mean the team continues to play from behind, leading to a low of pass attempts for Howell, who has 40 or more attempts in four of the last five games. As long as this team doesn't suddenly get good, Howell's going to sling that football around.

Verdict: Howell's a borderline QB1 going forward because of volume

Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions

Last Week: RB2

Okay, so Jahmyr Gibbs having a big showing this week wasn't a surprise, but I really just wanted to talk about the rookie running back and what his big week means in the grand scheme of things.

David Montgomery has been out the last two games, leading to increased usage from Gibbs. The rookie has taken advantage of that, going over 100 yards from scrimmage in both games. On Monday night against the Lions, he had 26 carries for 152 yards and a touchdown and also caught five passes for 37 yards.

Here's the thing, though. Once Montgomery is back from his rib injury, it's hard to see him not taking the lead role back because in the two games before his injury, he had over 100 scrimmage yards. Gibbs is performing well for a team that needed someone to step up at running back with Montgomery sidelined, but Montgomery is still really good. He's the lead back, but Gibbs has shown that Detroit needs to get him additional looks going forward. He's a high-end RB3 play once Montgomery is back and an RB1 if Montgomery misses more time.

Verdict: Larger role going forward, but Montgomery is still the lead back when healthy

Rashid Shaheed, New Orleans Saints

Last Week: WR4

I'm not usually big on players who don't get a lot of targets, because their production depends heavily on them getting a lot of production on limited looks. However, Rashid Shaheed has been a really intriguing boom/bust play all season.

He was only targeted three times this week but caught all three for 153 yards and a touchdown. He's found the end zone three times this season and has been very active in the deep passing game, though he also has four games with under 35 yards. It has been a real feast or famine year, but he's worth rostering if you need a risky upside play.

That's really all he looks like, though: a risky upside play. He has more than four targets just three times and this past week he played just 27% of the team's offensive snaps. His playing time has been all over the place and he's not going to surpass Michael Thomas or Chris Olave on the depth chart without an injury.

Verdict: Remains a boom-or-bust play

Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders

Last Week: WR7

Jahan Dotson was droppable before this past weekend. Through the first seven games, he hadn't had more than 43 receiving yards in any game, and he even had one game against the Falcons where he was held without a reception.

Curtis Samuel suffered a toe injury during Sunday's game, opening up more room for Dotson to work. That led to his best game of the season, as he caught eight passes for 108 yards and a touchdown.

It was a good performance and Dotson is a streaming play at wide receiver if Samuel misses time. In the end, we have seven weeks of evidence that when the Commanders are healthy, he's behind Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and Logan Thomas in the pecking order.

Verdict: Ehh, I'm not ready to trust him, but he's an option if Samuel misses time

Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals

Last Week: TE2

The Arizona Cardinals placed Zach Ertz on IR this week, elevating Trey McBride to the lead tight end role for the team. McBride made the most of that on Sunday against the Ravens.

The second-year tight end was targeted 14 times in the 31-24 loss, catching 10 of those passes for 95 yards and a touchdown. He led the Cardinals in targets, receptions, and receiving yards in the contest.

Ertz had eight or more targets in three of the first four games this season. It's been clear that the Cardinals want to get the football to the tight end position. Now that Ertz is out for at least the next three games, that role falls to McBride. For that reason, I expect to continue to see McBride with this kind of usage in the short term.

McBride is a high-end fantasy TE2 play with TE1 upside for the next three games and should be added in 12-team leagues and used as a streaming play until Ertz returns. The bigger question is what this tight end rotation will look like once Ertz is back. McBride is the more physically talented of the two at this point, but Ertz's veteran leadership and steady hands could push McBride back to a reserve role.

The only concern I have here is that the team traded away Joshua Dobbs and plans to start Clayton Tune at quarterback until Kyler Murray is ready to go. We don't really know what Tune will look like at the NFL level, so that introduces an added element to consider. The best case here would be for Murray to get back on the field quickly.

Verdict: Strong streaming play as long as Zach Ertz is out

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