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Are the Dolphins' fantasy football values sunk with QB Tua Tagovailoa out? John Johnson dives into what you should expect from Miami's star players in fantasy for 2024.
Things have gone from bad, to worse, to downright horrendous for the Miami Dolphins this season. After a shaky start in Week 1 with the Dolphins barely pulling out a win against a Jaguars team who just got obliterated 47-10 by the Buffalo Bills, disaster struck in Week 2.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa suffered a knockout blow (literally) when he dove for a first down and his head collided with a Bills defender. Tagovailoa fell unconscious, was taken out of the game, later placed on injured reserve, and is now set to miss at least the next four games.
Backup QB Skylar Thompson stepped in, and while he looked bad, there was at least a chance of him building more chemistry with the starting offense. Instead, he went down with a chest injury in Week 3. Are the Dolphins players' fantasy values sunk? Will they have a chance of meeting their ADPs in 2024? Let's dive in.
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What Will Tyreek Hill Look Like In The Next Few Weeks?
Bad. Very bad. Tagovailoa's and now Thompson's injuries are likely a death sentence for WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle fantasy-wise. Hill and Waddle's production is massively boosted by Tagovailoa's play, and their production tanks significantly when he's not on the field.
Tyreek Hill in games without Tua
-4 games played
-25 receptions
-302 yards
-1 touchdownDo the dolphins win Sunday? pic.twitter.com/folg8bTryg
— ReekMuse (@ReekMuse) September 17, 2024
Hill won't come anywhere close to his ADP. It's so bad without Tagovailoa that many are debating whether to start Hill at all. And it's a valid question. If you have a roster with good receivers, you may be better off with him on your bench. Hill has averaged three catches for 32 yards without Tagovailoa this season.
For a player who was drafted in the first round, that's atrocious. Hill owners are in for a rough few weeks. For a receiver who is widely considered one of the best in the NFL, it's shocking that head coach Mike McDaniel can't scheme up more looks for him, that the QB can't deliver, and that Hill can't produce at least WR2 numbers.
What Will Jaylen Waddle Look Like In The Next Few Weeks?
Worse than Hill. Waddle's numbers suffered even further in 2022 without Tagovailoa. The numbers for 2022 might be inflated compared to what they'll be like this year, too. Waddle's production regressed mightily in 2023, and he's not looked like the best second-receiving option on any team for fantasy since.
Dolphins WRs Tyreek Hill and and especially Jaylen Waddle had some wild splits with and without Tua Tagovailoa last season. pic.twitter.com/lH1sNJrXDc
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) April 13, 2023
The splits were even worse for Waddle in 2022. The numbers on this chart look better than they will be this season in all likelihood anyway. As mentioned earlier, the Dolphins offense as a whole has taken a major step back. Waddle has yet to score a touchdown and is averaging four catches for 33.5 yards in the past two games.
That includes having Tagovailoa in the game for part of Week 2 before his injury. Waddle is set to produce worse than many receivers on waivers, and though he was drafted much lower than Hill, it's tough for fantasy managers to see a prized player become unstartable for long stretches.
What Will De'Von Achane Look Like In The Next Few Weeks?
There's hope for Achane. Not to produce like he did in the first two weeks, but that he can salvage much of his PPR production by getting lots of receptions on dump-offs and in garbage time.
However, curiously, in Week 3 against the Seattle Seahawks, Achane didn't get much volume. He had a few big runs early but the Seahawks stifled the Dolphins' run game as the contest wore on, and Achane ended up with a miserable stat line of just 11 carries for 30 yards and three catches for 28 yards.
Run block grade versus rushing yards over expected
Achane isn't exactly repeating last year's incredible efficiency (probably not 100% tho)
The D'Andre Swift contract was very funny pic.twitter.com/9cSoyd0viO
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) September 24, 2024
Achane has also had some puzzling efficiency woes. Despite the team excelling in run blocking, Achane has posted a very low rushing yards over expected per attempt, meaning he's gaining fewer yards than he should on many of his carries. The ankle injury he picked up in Week 1 may be still bothering him.
He still has a workhorse role, though, especially with Raheem Mostert being injured, which is very valuable for fantasy.
What Will Raheem Mostert Look Like In The Next Few Weeks?
Mostert had six carries for nine yards in Week 1 before going down with a chest injury. He hasn't seen the field since. Mostert has a long history of injuries and has missed a ton of time in his career.
Mostert has injury history, but so does Cook, both explosive! & fast, But Mostert more physical IMO, u decide. pic.twitter.com/4V6unhF6GO
— Ivan. (@Blue42Dolfan) July 28, 2023
It's safe to assume Mostert won't do much anytime soon. The sub-two yards per carry line won't help. It's possible the loss of center Connor Williams, one of the best run blockers in the NFL in 2023, will make it difficult for Mostert to ever get going. Mostert's Cinderella season in 2023 was largely buoyed by excellent run blocking.
Achane is the clear top priority in the Dolphins backfield and rookie RB Jaylen Wright was likely drafted to be Mostert's replacement, however long that takes.
Is There Any Silver Lining To This Awful Situation?
There is. Breathe a sigh of relief. The Dolphins face the Tennessee Titans (0-3), the New England Patriots (lucky to be 1-2), the Indianapolis Colts (1-2), and the Arizona Cardinals (1-2) in their next four games. Their bye week is in Week 6. There's optimism that Tagovailoa could return as soon as Week 7.
Our 2024 schedule, on the go. 📲💻 pic.twitter.com/6sE1n1URyw
— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) May 16, 2024
Tagovailoa will be eligible to return by Week 7, and though his concussion was severe, typically the injury doesn't take four weeks to recover from. NFL players tend to return from concussions sooner. The IR designation is likely precautionary. However, Tagovailoa will need the opinion of independent neurologists first.
𝗥𝗘𝗣𝗢𝗥𝗧: #Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa plans to meet with Neurologists later this week. pic.twitter.com/IAAsGVnHpL
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) September 24, 2024
Even if he takes longer to return, the soft schedule coming up is a big boost for Dolphins players' managers. It will still be rough with Tyler Huntley and Thompson (if he returns) starting at QB, but a lot better than it could be if they were facing elite squads.
Not all is lost for the Dolphins players, but their values are significantly depressed for now, and until Tagovailoa returns. Until he's back, Hill and especially Waddle warrant serious considerations for benching (except against the Colts, their defense isn't good) and Achane's value goes down substantially. Mostert isn't startable.
Keep this all in mind when making your start/sit decisions for the upcoming weeks. The Dolphins stars are not finished, but they won't be anywhere close to what they could be.
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