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Third baseman Anthony Rendon signed a huge contract with the L.A. Angels ahead of the 2020 MLB season. Pierre Camus examines the fantasy baseball impact of this move in relation to Rendon's ADP among 3B in fantasy drafts.
Anthony Rendon's seven-year, $245 million contract may not match that of newest Yankee Gerrit Cole but it does equal former teammate Stephen Strasburg's deal and includes a full no-trade clause with no opt-outs, options, or deferred money. Regardless of results, the new marriage between the Halos and Rendon is set in stone until 2026.
Rendon's contract makes him the highest-paid third baseman in the Majors based on an AAV of $35 million that edges out Nolan Arenado. Of course, a huge payday in a huge market makes for huge expectations. Or as P-Diddy might say, "mo' money, mo' problems."
Fresh off a World Series win and a career-best season, Rendon would seem primed for the challenge. The consummate professional who rarely displays emotion on the baseball diamond, Rendon's demeanor and work ethic are certainly not issues to be concerned about. Fitting in with a new team for the first time in his seven-year MLB career in a new league and a less hitter-friendly park, as well as the possibility of regression to his career averages could be. Let's see how Rendon's move to L.A. could affect his fantasy stats and how the Nationals can try to fill the massive hole left in the middle of their lineup.
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A Season to Remember
Statistically speaking, Rendon's 2019 season stands out as a career-best in nearly every category that matters. He slashed .319/.412/.598 with 34 HR, 126 RBI, and 117 R. Always known for tremendous plate discipline, he posted the second-best BB/K of his career at 0.93 with a 12.4% walk rate that was 20th and a 13.3% strikeout rate that was 15th-best in the majors among qualifiers. He drove in more runs than anyone else, posted the fifth-highest offensive rating of any hitter at 46.5 and had a 7.0 WAR that was good for seventh on the offensive leaderboard. All this combined with the fact that the Nationals earned a Wild Card berth that led to a miraculous postseason run made Rendon the third-place finisher in MVP voting.
As far as Statcast goes, he placed in the top-40 in both Barrel rate and Hard-Hit rate. He also posted a .319 xBA, .599 xSLG, and .418 xwOBA that were all in the top 2% of the league. Check out his rolling xwOBA over the course of his career and you'll see that there are no flukes here in terms of performance.
I'd be remiss not to mention his playoff heroics, as he batted .328 and drove in 15 runs in 17 games, including eight in the World Series. He almost single-handedly defeated the Astros in a must-win Game 6 with five RBI and then homered again in Game 7 to help clinch a title. Rendon was definitely going to cash in whether he stayed in Washington or departed, as he wound up doing. It's well-deserved to be sure, but the question is whether the outstanding performance from last season is repeatable.
Lining Up Next to Trout
The first reaction most people have had to this signing (aside from disappointed Nats fans) is that Mike Trout finally has some help! The last time the Angels opened up their wallets this wide was eight years ago to a future Hall of Famer named Albert Pujols. There won't be any side-by-side comparisons here, though. Besides being different players in different timeframes, Pujols was already 32 years old in his first season with the Angels. Rendon is in the midst of year 29. Pujols also had accumulated almost twice as many career plate appearances up to that point in his career, stepping to the plate 7,433 times with the Cardinals while Rendon has 3,927 PA in the bigs.
Rendon should slot in at his usual third spot in the lineup behind Trout, who batted second in every single start last year. It's not as if Trout needed a boost to his fantasy value but this added protection should quell any possible concerns about the lineup around him. It could also keep him from running as much as we'd like but that's for another article...
Rendon should easily have enough RBI opportunities to match his 2019 total with Trout ahead of him on base. The likes of Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton, and Albert Pujols behind him should be comparable to Juan Soto, Ryan Zimmerman, and Victor Robles in terms of ability, if not youth. Unlikely as it seems given his gaudy stats from a year ago, Rendon's final R+RBI output shouldn't take a hit, especially now that he plays in the American League.
The move to a new ballpark always must be accounted for, especially when one's previous home was particularly hitter-friendly. In this case, it holds true that Nationals Park was seventh in HR Park Factor for right-handed batters at 108 while Angel Stadium of Anaheim was 16th at a below-average 98. That factor, coupled with a 14.9% HR/FB rate that is 4.5 points higher than his career average could lead us to speculate that a couple fewer balls will leave the yard for Rendon in 2020. Given his outstanding hard-hit and barrel rates mentioned earlier, that concern shouldn't lead us to a projection lower than 25 HR, which is just two above his three-year average from 2016-2018.
Hard as it may be to believe, it's impossible to find any hole in Rendon's game at the plate. His home average (.317) was nearly identical to his road average (.321), his second-half average (.336) was even higher than his first half (.304), and he hits better against the shift (.346) than without it (.322). If you want to try poking a hole in the Angels' proposed lineup, it could be that it is too right-handed dominant. A top of the order with Fletcher/Trout/Rendon/Upton/Pujols would make five in a row to start things off. Realistically, Tommy La Stella or Luis Rengifo should man second base against righties and Pujols will hit sixth with Ohtani or Brian Goodwin in the fifth spot. It doesn't really matter, as Rendon predictably has no disadvantage against lefties (.316) or righties (.320) and will drive in whoever is on base. The Angels seem poised to finish better than last year's middle-of-the-road offensive performance when they tied for 15th in runs scored.
Where Does This Leave the Champs?
The high from Washington's unexpected championship run may not have worn off completely but the focus has already shifted to 2020. GM Mike Rizzo admitted that the team couldn't afford to keep both Strasburg and Rendon, which proved to be true. They still have one of the most formidable rotations in the game, which in and of itself will keep them in contention. The offense now becomes the question mark.
Third base has a gaping Rendon-sized hole to fill. A top-flight free agent like Josh Donaldson could minimize the impact of Rendon's departure but he seems likely to sign elsewhere at this point. After him, there aren't any options even close to comparable. They may have to target a second baseman and move Kendrick to third base, hoping he can hold up over the course of a full season, which he hasn't done for the past three years. The other option could be to move prospect Carter Kieboom to 3B to get his bat in the lineup and see if he's ready to handle Major League pitching. He makes for a nice late pick in early best-ball or draft-and-hold formats. The Nats also have to decide if they want to re-sign any of Brian Dozier, Matt Adams, or Asdrubal Cabrera to round out the roster but none of them have appeal even if they return.
Trea Turner aside, their starting lineup could have three players age 22 or younger (Juan Soto, Victor Robles, Carter Kieboom) and four players over 30. They will rely on Turner and Soto to carry the load and hope that Ryan Zimmerman and Howie Kendrick can hold up over the majority of the season. Rendon's MLB-leading RBI totals are a result of his clutch hitting, which is simply impossible to replace.
It seems unlikely that Washington will finish sixth in total offense like last year and that could leave highly-drafted players like Soto and Turner delivering a slightly lower ROI than expected, seeing as how both are currently top-12 picks in NFBC drafts.
2020 Outlook
Rendon was already considered among the safest early-round picks at third base and corner infield in general before the 2019 season. Fresh off a career year, he enters this offseason as the #20 overall selection in early drafts and could see his ADP climb even more as the Angels round out their roster to attempt a return to relevance. Fantasy drafters need to decide whether Rendon seems likely to continue his offensive ascent up to his age-30 season or if last season will prove to be his peak.
We've seen players get bogged down by the expectations that come with living up to a massive contract. This would seem out of character for Rendon but we don't truly know how he'll adjust to the west coast or the increased pressure yet. It might be prudent to expect numbers that are comparable to 2019 but a bit lower initially as he faces a new crop of opposing pitchers. He should not fall beyond the second round in 12-team leagues though, as his sustained measures of discipline, composure, and reliability have made him a bedrock at the hot corner and a top-10 asset in points leagues.
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