RADIO
The Cincinnati Reds and their fans are probably more disappointed than happy with the team's 2021 performance, as the team finished with a winning record of 83-79. However, a very final month left pushed them out of the playoffs. They are left with a solid core of players, which gives the team hopes for a strong 2022 season.
No player was a more pleasant surprise to the Reds than rookie second baseman Jonathan India. The right-handed lead-off man put up numbers worthy of the Rookie of the Year award, which he finds himself currently as a finalist for. He played 150 games and posted a strong triple-slash line of .269/.376/.459. He was excellent for fantasy purposes, scoring 98 runs and swiping a dozen bases while hitting 21 homers and driving in 69.
After being undrafted in 2021, he is certain to be drafted as a top second baseman in fantasy leagues in 2022. Any time this happens, further investigation is warranted. We don't want to just accept the surface numbers when there is just one season of data, so let's get into the weeds here and make some early judgments on how we should handle India next fantasy season.
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A Slow Start
India was not drafted in most re-draft leagues in 2021, and he did not immediately make the case for being rostered anywhere.
India batted in the bottom third of the lineup for the whole first two months, not leading off a single time until June 3rd when he pretty much took over that spot in the lineup for good. He homered just once in April and took until May 13 (92 plate appearances) to hit his second homer.
Once the calendar turned to June, things really took a turn for the better for India, as we can see here in his rolling slugging percentage chart:
Plate Discipline
While the numbers were nothing to get excited about early on, there were some good signs in his profile pretty much the whole year. His strikeout rate never reached really worrisome levels, and by mid-May he had it below 25%, where it would stay the rest of the year.
The thing that stood out most in India's profile was the plate discipline. He did not draw a single walk in his first ten games but after those first couple weeks, he really settled down and started drawing a bunch of walks. His 11.3% walk rate at the end of the year was 2.3 points above the league average.
India achieved the high walk rate mostly by just not swinging the bat very often. His 39% swing rate was fifth-lowest in the league and that helped him post the 15th best chase rate in the league at 25%. The fact that he took so many pitches makes his 22% strikeout rate extra impressive since he found himself in more two-strike counts than the average hitter. However, his 77% contact rate was right at the league average, so I do think it's a fair bet that his strikeout rate will increase in years to come - especially if he continues to try to hit for power.
The negative stuff aside, India showed us plate patience and strike zone awareness that you don't often see from a rookie, and he did it while hitting homers at a better than average rate, which is not an easy thing to do.
Power Upside?
The league average plate appearances per home run in 2021 was 29. For the whole season, India's rate was 30. Looking at June 1st on, however, that number improves to 26.7. From July 1st on, the number improved even further to 24. He did that while maintaining the low strikeout rate at 23.1%.
One thing I am constantly looking for are hitters who can maintain high barrel rates and low strikeout rates at the same time. From June forward, India posted a 10% barrel rate (two points above the league average) while striking out just 22.5% of the time (three points better than the league average). Looking at the whole league, we only find less than 30 hitters with double-digit barrel rates and strikeout rates below 23%. India was far from elite in either category, but being a couple of points better than the league average in both of those metrics isn't something many players can do.
Fantasy Impact
The main reason to like India for fantasy purposes is the fact that he can contribute in all categories (especially if you're in an OBP league where his stock will significantly increase). He projects to be pretty studly in the runs category (from 6/1 on he was third in the league in runs with 85), as well as on-base percentage. He should also project for around 25 homers and 15-20 steals. Those are more good numbers than great. He will project for more of a "fine" batting average, but that's really the only negative thing we can say about his 2022 projection.
All of this gives India a rock-solid fantasy floor for 2022, and this will be especially true if the Reds bulk up the offense a bit for another playoff push in 2022 - which they've shown willingness to do in recent years. The negative with India is possibly a lower ceiling than you'd hope for. His exit velocity topped out at 110 miles per hour, just a 32nd percentile figure, which shows us a lack of bat speed there. At the age of 24, of course, things can still change - but he doesn't seem to profile as a real threat for 30+ homers. He also didn't steal bases at a crazy high rate, and typically players slow down their steals pace after their rookie year rather than speed it up - but we can't say anything for sure in this specific instance.
It will be very interesting to see where India's ADP lands, but I am a little bit worried that he will be one of the most over-priced players for 2022 after his big 2021 season.
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