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Hello everybody and welcome! The 2021 NFL Preseason kicked off with the Hall of Fame Game last week and that means our new friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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PrizePicks has two types of games. The first type of game is known as Fantasy Score, which consists of selecting various players and trying to determine if they will go over or under their projected fantasy points in a game. The second game is known as Single Stat. For NFL, Single Stat consists of quarterback passing yards, running back rushing yards, and wide receiver receiving yards in which you determine if the player in question will go over or under their projected total. You can mix and match players from each type of game in your entry or select all of your plays from the same type of game. Once you have selected your players and props, you can choose the aforementioned flex play or power play option. Tonight, we will look at a mixture of plays for Week 1 of the NFL Preseason.
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Single Stat NFL_FUT Totals
Aaron Jones over 1,050.5 rushing yards - Aaron Jones had a solid season in 2020 as he rushed for 1,104 yards, which was the fourth-most of any running back in the league. While A.J. Dillon is in Green Bay, I expect Jones to get a large portion of the work in this backfield, especially after his strong 2020 campaign. The fact that he has 17 games to eclipse a total he eclipsed in 2020 only helps his cause. He also has the benefit of facing the Lions, Vikings, and Bears rush defenses who ranked fifth-worst, ninth-worst, and 11th-worst, respectively in terms of rushing yards allowed to running backs a season ago. He will also have the benefit of facing the Bengals, Chiefs, and Cardinals who ranked third-worst, 10th-worst, and 12th-worst, respectively in terms of rushing yards allowed to the running back position in 2020.
Saquon Barkley under 1,175.5 rushing yards - There is no doubt Barkley has the talent to go over this number as he rushed for over 1,300 yards in 16 games his rookie season in 2018, but the fact that he is coming off a very serious knee injury has me extremely concerned, especially during the early part of the season when he is likely to be eased back into the fold. Aside from this, he is going to be going up against some stout run defenses. In his division, he will face the seventh-best rush defense in terms of rushing yards per game in the Eagles and the 12th-best defense in the Washington Football Team. Granted, he will also face the second-worst defense in terms of rushing yards allowed per game in the Dallas Cowboys, but when we look at inter-divisional opponents, the road to the over looks quite bleak. Barkley will be going up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Los Angeles Rams, New Orleans Saints, Atlanta Falcons, and the Miami Dolphins. Each of these five teams ranked inside the top 10 in 2020 in terms of rushing yards allowed to running backs.
Darrell Henderson Jr over 925.5 rushing yards - Henderson appears to be the man in LA now that Cam Akers is down for the season with a torn Achilles and that should certainly work in his favor of getting over this prop. In 2020, Henderson and Akers shared a large portion of the workload for the Rams and combined for 1,250 rushing yards on 283 carries. Now, we do not expect Henderson to carry the ball 283 times, but he will not have to in order to get over this prop. He has some of the juiciest matchups in terms of rushing yards allowed to backs from a season ago. He will be facing the Texans (worst), Jaguars (fourth-worst), Lions (fifth-worst), and Vikings (ninth-worst). He will also have matchups against the Bears, Cardinals, and Packers who ranked 11th-worst, 12th-worst, and 15th-worst, respectively. He should be in a great spot to get over the 1,000-yard mark this season.
David Montgomery over 1,000.5 rushing yards - At some point (likely early in the season) Justin Fields will take over as the starting quarterback for the Chicago Bears and he will want a strong rushing attack to fall back on. Enter David Montgomery who is unquestionably the bell cow in Chicago and rushed for 1,070 yards on 240 carries across 15 games in 2020. This season, he will have several strong matchups in which he can once again eclipse the 1,000-yard mark. First, within the division, he will be facing the Lions, Vikings, and Packers who ranked fifth-worst, ninth-worst, and 15th-worst in terms of rushing yards allowed to running backs in 2020. He will also have matchups outside the division against the Bengals, Cardinals, and Raiders who ranked third-worst, 12th-worst, and 13-worst, respectively.
Overall recommendation for this play: FLEX
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