K-BB% Starting Pitcher Risers and Fallers (July)

Eric Samulski looks at recent starting pitcher K-BB% (strikeout minus walk rate) risers and fallers for July in the 2021 MLB season to determine SP values for fantasy baseball.

Recently I've been on a K-BB% bender. I first looked at potential 2nd half breakouts by examining June K-BB% and came away feeling good about Eduardo Rodriguez, Patrick Sandoval, and Adam Wainwright. Then I looked at some relievers who might be worth stashing based on June's K-BB%, so it's only fitting that I go back to starters now. As a reminder of why I love K-BB% so much, here's a snippet from one of my earlier articles:

If a pitcher has a high strikeout rate (K%), then we know he is effective because we know that strikeouts and good and a sign of deception and good stuff. However, if a pitcher also has a high walk rate (BB%), then we know that the pitcher can't harness that stuff and gives up a lot of baserunners. K-BB% thus allows us to identify pitchers who can not only miss bats but also have the command to make use of their strong pitches.

Today, we're going to look at the biggest gainers and decliners in K-BB% when comparing July's numbers to the first half of the season. The idea would be to see which pitchers have either improved their walk rates or seen a major jump in strikeout rate and then examine WHY that might be to see if we should be excited. That last part is crucial here. Many of these numbers from July are based on three or four starts, so we can't take them at face value without diving in more. A pitcher may have had a horrible schedule or just some bad luck. That means a player being on the improvers list doesn't automatically make him an add, just like a player being on the decliners list doesn't make him a drop. Case in point: you will see Corbin Burnes on the decliners list. Do not worry. The beginning of the season was just other-worldly for him, so some regression was bound to happen.

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Gainers

Note: a pitcher needed to throw 40 innings in the first half of the season to qualify for the leaderboard, which you can see in full here. It is updated as of July 27th.

Kenta Maeda, Minnesota Twins

We've been talking about Kenta Maeda as a possible bounce-back candidate for weeks now, and perhaps it's happening. Yes, his four starts in July have been against the Royals, Angels, and Tigers twice but those aren't awful offenses, just middle-of-the-road ones. The K-BB% growth has been fueled by a slight improvement in his walk rate but a clear spike in strikeout rate, which has also come with allowing less hard contact.

What's interesting to me is that this has corresponded with a change in pitch mix. All year we've been wanting Maeda to find the effectiveness of the slider, speculating that his location was off because of the new baseball or something else. However, Maeda hasn't really found the slider; however, he has remedied that by dialing back on the slider usage and relying more on the splitter and four-seam.

While this may not have been the path we wanted for him; it has been successful. The splitter has a 37.1% whiff rate in July, and the four-seam has actually increased in whiff rate from 12.9% to 25%. Now, it's possible that it's just a result of those opponents, but it's also possible that using the splitter more has allowed the four-seam to play up since they work relatively well off of one another given their similar release point and trajectory but nine MPH difference. Regardless, I think Maeda is back to being a reliable fantasy arm, and if he can figure out that slider, he could vault back into the high-end SP2 conversation.

Luis Garcia, Houston Astros

These stats were before Garcia got pounded for six runs against the Mariners in 4.2 innings on Monday. However, he also had nine strikeouts in that game to only one walk, so it certainly wouldn't have hurt him on this leaderboard. I'm still 100% buying into Garcia, but the only reason I wanted to write about him here is to point out that he's thrown 96 innings so far. His career-high is 108.2 spread across two levels in 2019.

We have no idea what his full workload was last year with the time off and the alternate site, but it wouldn't be shocking to see the Astros cap him around 130-140 innings this year, which could mean a move to the bullpen in the final month(s) of the season, especially with Cristian Javier ready to jump back into the rotation whenever he's ready. I wouldn't say this is a LOCK to happen, but it would be something I'm keeping an eye on if I'm a Garcia owner. Keep trotting him out there if you have him, but if you get a tempting offer for a sure-fire SP in a redraft league, it might not be the worst move to make.

Chad Kuhl, Pittsburgh Pirates

I've always been a bit of a Chad Kuhl stan. I'm not entirely sure why. Maybe it's because I've always been a big fan of his slider, which currently has an 18% swinging-strike rate (SwStr%) on the season. However, injuries have plagued the right-hander, and he's never quite made good on his intriguing foundation of skills. Perhaps we're seeing it now? He's only made three starts in July, but he has a 2.20 ERA to go along with his 28.1% strikeout rate. Considering those three starts were also against the Giants, Mets, and Braves, I'm a little bit intrigued. Then I also look at the changes he's making to the pitch mix and I'm getting a bit excited.

Kuhl's sinker is far and away his worst pitch, with a 7.29 deserved ERA (dERA) and 1.3% SwStr, so getting rid of it is certainly a good thing for him. The four-seamer isn't great, but it misses more bats and works well with his slider, so I prefer it as the one fastball offering. However, what I also like is that Kuhl is back to throwing the slider around 50% of the time and has actually been slowly introducing the change-up more.

Considering the change has a .143 batting average against and 19% SwStr, I'm a fan of this move. In his last start against the Giants, he threw the pitch 10% of the time for a 44% CSW, and it could be huge if it emerges as a reliable third offering for him. Given that he's on the Pirates, I wouldn't expect many wins, but I'd be adding Kuhl in deeper leagues to see if this is for real.

Domingo German, New York Yankees

I'm not buying into this one. Yes, German had a great start in his last game against the Red Sox, but he also has a 4.24 ERA during the month (even after that start), and his K-BB% numbers are inflated by a few 2-3 inning appearances where he was able to go full out without having to worry about pitching deep into the game. German is throwing his curve a little more in July, which is nice, but it remains his only real plus pitch, which the fastball unable to consistently miss bats and registering a 7.52 dERA. If you're in deeper leagues, I guess you can roster and hope that the changeup continues to develop, but this just isn't for me.

Patrick Sandoval, Los Angeles Angels

I covered Sandoval in my potential second-half breakouts piece, so I'd recommend just reading that breakdown for my thoughts.

Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics

This is all about the velocity for Manaea. He has always had good pitchability, but when he's unable to miss bats with his fastball, he's simply not a dynamic enough pitcher to consistently produce strong fantasy starts. However, he has maintained his velocity into the summer, even averaging 93 mph and hitting 96 in his last start against Seattle, which helped him be fully dominant.

However, he also allowed three runs in 5.1 innings to Cleveland the start before, three earned runs in 6.2 against Houston before that, and four runs in five innings to Texas to begin the month. As a result, his K% has skyrocketed to 31.7% in July, but his ERA is also sitting at 4.13 with a .453 slugging percentage allowed, including a .283 xBA and .583 xSLG on just that sinker during the month. All told, Manaea may get more strikeouts with the added velocity, which is good for his fantasy profile, but don't expect him to have a Robbie Ray or Carlos Rodon rise to prominence in these final months.

Alex Wood, San Francisco Giants

Alex Wood is healthy and throwing the slider again. After a dip in usage in June down to 21.3%, the slider has come back with a vengeance as Wood is tossing it 40% of the time to a 43.2% whiff rate and .138 xBA. You should buy back in.

Decliners

Taijuan Walker, New York Mets

I think we expected the Taijuan Walker bubble to burst a little bit but not like this. Walker has made four starts in the month of July and currently has a 9.00 ERA, .295 batting average against, and 15.1% walk rate to just an 11% strikeout rate. That's a far cry from where he was at the beginning of the year and you have to wonder whether fatigue is catching up to him. Walker hasn't thrown more than 53 innings in a season since 2017, and he's now at 94.1 innings pitched in 2021.

In the first two months of the year, the slider was a tremendous pitch for Walker, but he can't seem to find the plate with it in July, registering only a 40% zone rate with a minuscule 7.1% SwStr, leading to an inflated 23.1% walk rate and 11.68 dERA. Without the slider, too much weight is placed on Walker's fastball and sinker, both with xSLG's over.510 allowed on the month. I don't want to over-react too much to one bad month, but given Walker's injury history and the number of innings he's already thrown, I think we might be seeing the beginning of a poor second half. With Jacob deGrom and Carlos Carrasco coming back, plus the trade for Rich Hill and the emergence of Tylor Megill, it wouldn't be crazy to see the Mets transition Walker into a multi-inning bullpen role, perhaps with him and Rich Hill piggy-backing in the same game.

Ian Anderson, Atlanta Braves

Ian Anderson is coming back from injury and has only made three starts in the month of July, but, in truth, I was worried about him earlier in the year which was a big reason why I moved him in a package for Mitch Haniger and Tejay Antone in a keeper league back in May (the other part of that package was Kyle Schwarber so it was not exactly the best move for me). However, while the shoulder injury may have been the reason for the five walks in his last start, he also only has a 24.3% strikeout rate, 11.9% SwStr, and 27.4% CSW on the year. While those aren't bad numbers, they're not the jump that many people expected him to make in his second season.

Considering Anderson was not a huge swing-and-miss guy in the minors, with strikeout rates routinely around 28%, it might not be out of the realm of possibility to see him settle in as a 25% strikeout rate guy or nine K/9. That's certainly useful but definitely not as enticing as the 11.41 K/9 he put up in his debut in 2020. I would adjust my future valuation of him accordingly.

Joe Musgrove, San Diego Padres

It hasn't been a great July for Musgrove, with a 5.31 ERA, .306 averaging against, and 17.7% strikeout rate in four starts. Considering those starts were against the Nationals twice, Marlins, and Rockies (in San Diego), I'm a little bit concerned. I'm even more concerned because Musgrove has seen a steady decline since the crackdown on sticky stuff at the end of June. He has seen some of the effectiveness of his slider lessen, with the pitch dropping from a .064 average against and 54.4% whiff rate in May to a .300 average against and 21.7% whiff rate in July (with June as a middle range). However, we also know that the crackdown on sticky stuff has really hurt the rise on fastballs and while Musgrove hasn't experienced any major change in spin rate, his fastball has dropped to a crazy low 3.6% whiff rate in July with a .448 average against and .778 slugging allowed.

To go deeper, the four-seam has a 34.8% CSW on the season while the slider has a 31.5% CSW and 19% SwStr. In July, the four-seam has a 28.1% CSW while the slider has a 28.1% CSW but just a 12.4% SwStr. He hasn't struggled much with walks, but if Musgrove isn't going to miss bats like he was earlier in the year, you have to hold that against him a bit. I wouldn't drop him and you're certainly not going to get much for him in a trade, but I wouldn't lock him into your lineups without checking the opposing lineup first. He's starting to get hit hard and only has his curve to rely on, so I would think about benching him for the time being if he faces a potent offense.

Tyler Mahle, Cincinnati Reds

Tyler Mahle is another pitcher I'm beginning to get worried about since the sticky stuff crackdown. However, unlike Musgrove, my worry for Musgrove is that his command has seemed to leave him. Since the calendar turned to July, Mahle has a 50% zone rate on his fastball but only a 32.5% zone rate on the slider, which has led to a 21.7% BB% on the pitch a drop to a 12% SwStr. In fact, the swing% against Mahle has dropped from 61.3% in June to 42.7% in July, which means hitters simply aren't offering at his pitches, the slider in particular. Since Mahle is only a three-pitch pitcher who relies heavily on the slider and fastball (83% of his usage), he can't afford to simply lose command of the slider, which is really the pitch that fueled his breakout.

To top that off, Mahle has pretty drastic home and road splits this year:

The ERA, home runs, average, and slugging percentage just jump out at you. Considering Mahle's ineffectiveness with his slider and massive home/road splits I think, and it pains me to say this, you need to be incredibly careful with who you decide to start him with when he's pitching in Great American Ballpark. For me, he may be a firm bench when he's at home until I can see that he has the feel for that slider back.

Yu Darvish, San Diego Padres

Darvish is an interesting case because he's very clearly struggling in July with a 7.32 ERA, .288 average against, .613 slugging allowed, and 21.8% strikeout rate, down from 29.8% in the first half. However, he also has seen an INCREASE in SwStr% on his cutter, his most-used pitch, from 13.3% on the season to 17.4% in July, which has actually caused the CSW to rise to 39.4%. He has also seen only a modest decrease in CSW and SwStr on his slider, so the main culprit appears to be the four-seam fastball, which has seen the called strike rate drop from 13.6% to 5.6% while the swing rate on the pitch has gone up 7%. It has almost the same zone rate, so hitters are simply offering at the pitch more, while has led to a .316 average against and 1.053 slugging allowed, including four home runs.

However, even though the four-seam is getting hammered, I'm not overly concerned about Darvish. The swing-and-miss ability of his two main pitches is still there, and the x-stats would suggest he's simply getting unlucky on the slider and cutter. He has allowed a .308 average against the cutter and .300 average against the slider in July, even though the xBA on the cutter is .190 and the xBA on the slider is .188. There is nothing in the velocity or movement profile that makes me think anything is wrong with those two pitches, so I'm going to chalk this up to a bad stretch and put my faith in the belief that, when the slider and cutter regain their effectiveness, hitters won't be able to sit on the fastball as much.

Jameson Taillon, New York Yankees

Jameson Taillon just had his best month of the season but finds himself on this list. What gives? The right-hander has pitched to a 1.42 ERA in July, but his strikeout rate still sat at 20.1%, only 2% up from where it was at in June, while the walk rate also jumped up 2%. He also allowed way more fly balls in July but saw a larger portion go as infield fly balls and saw his HR/FB% drop to 5.3%, which seems like an outlier from his larger season performance. So a lot of this feels flukey.

However, his four starts this month were against Seattle, Houston, and Boston twice, so he was producing against solid competition. Then you see some minor changes happening in his pitch mix, where he is relying on his breaking balls more and his four-seam less while also incorporating a sinker more often.

To me, the two biggest changes are the curve replacing the slider as the main offspeed offering and the added sinker usage. For starters, the curve has been inducing a lot of ground ball outs and has the highest CSW of any of Taillon's pitches. However, the bad news is that the 32.5% CSW is primarily bolstered by a 24.1% called strike rate, which we never really want to rely on. He keeps it on the outside part of the zone well, which is nice, and the 31.8% whiff rate on the pitch is the best of any month so far this season, so maybe the curve is taking the next step. Yet, it's the sinker that stands out for me since it has a 16.7% SwStr and 30.6% CSW in July while also registering a -0.52 dERA in part due to a 77.7 mph average exit velocity allowed.

Since Taillon's improvement hasn't been due to strikeouts, it's possible that the increased sinker usage is allowing him to get more soft contact and be more effective deeper into games. Given the competition he has succeeded against this month, I'm intrigued and would be rostering Taillon in all 12-team leagues or deeper.

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