The Cut List: Week 9 - Time to Let Go?

May 24, 2021

Jamie Steed's list of busts and overvalued players who fantasy baseball managers may want to consider cutting and dropping for Week 9 of the fantasy season.

Welcome back to the Cut List. This is our weekly article looking at players who fantasy managers should consider cutting from their teams and struggling players who need a closer peek. We'll look at players who are worthy of a drop, players who are worth monitoring for replacing, and someone on the hot seat who is worth holding on to... for now.

Following last week's pitching special where we covered 32 pitchers (all of whom came from Twitter and Reddit requests), this week we'll be switching the focus to hitters. As always, if there's anyone you specifically want to know whether to drop or hold who isn't included in the article, mention them on the Reddit thread and they might be featured the following week. This isn't a "hard and fast" list of definite players to drop, but hopefully, it will act as a tool to help you with your roster decisions.

I'm a strong advocate for not making knee-jerk reactions. A bad week or two in the middle of the season is easily hidden across a whole season. We've passed the 25% mark for the season already (where's the time gone!?) so those small sample sizes are starting to be a little more meaningful. All stats and rostered rates (taken from Yahoo!) are reflective of when this piece was written.

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Worth Dropping and Replacing

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - 2B/OF, Toronto Blue Jays - 74% rostered

Gurriel Jr. has had a slow start to the season, slashing just .235/.250/.322 with only two homers and one stolen base. He's spent all of the season in the bottom half of the lineup, which has limited him to just 12 runs and 12 RBI. Understandably, fantasy managers are losing patience and dropping him. That decision was made a bit easier for some when he missed time earlier this week with a knee contusion, but he appears to be fine again and returned to the lineup on Saturday. Prior to his knee injury, Gurriel Jr. had started to shows signs of life at the plate with a five-game hit streak which included a four-game multi-hit streak and a three-game doubles streak. He hit .455/.435/.581 in that time and a quarter of his runs and RBI came during that five-game spell. In his return last night, Gurriel Jr. went 2-for-4, so his recent success appears to be carrying on.

Normally I can find some underlying numbers which suggest a hitter has been unlucky and looks likely to turn things around, but in Gurriel's case, I can't. His expected numbers aren't great, he's not hitting the ball hard, and he's been a below-average outfielder (as we can see below), so it's not as if his glove will keep him in the lineup. In an interesting development on Saturday, Gurriel Jr. started at first base as the Blue Jays reshuffled their lineup following Cavan Biggio (neck) going on the IL.

The Blue Jays have kept faith in Gurriel Jr., aided by George Springer's (quad) injury. The fact he was heating up before his injury (and last night makes it five multi-hit games in his last six) offers hope he's coming around. Prior to this season, he had a .287/.327/.508 career slash line with 42 homers in 206 games (162 game pace of 33 homers), so I'd be more inclined to give Gurriel time to work things out and see if his hot streak over the last 10 days is legit and he sustains things moving forward.

Verdict - His 2B eligibility in some leagues is a big help and I don't think I'd drop him in anything other than 10-team leagues providing there's a reliable replacement. If I've kept hold of Gurriel Jr. up to this point, I'm not dropping him this week, but will monitor him closely in the coming days.

David Fletcher - 2B/3B/SS/OF, Los Angeles Angels - 55% rostered

Fletcher entered the season with a career .292/.346/.386 slash line, with 1o homers and 13 steals in 283 games (162 game pace of 7.44 homers and 5.72 steals). He was the very definition of an "empty batting average" hitter in fantasy. However, he was also the Angels leadoff hitter and being in the lineup ahead of Mike Trout (calf), Anthony Rendon and Shohei Ohtani offers huge run-scoring potential. Being eligible at four positions is also a big plus to Fletcher's fantasy value. Things haven't quite panned out that way, however, and took a downward turn this week.

Last Saturday, Fletcher was not hitting leadoff for the first time since 2019 and had actually dropped down to ninth in the order. That wasn't a one-off as he's hit ninth in every Angels game this week. Given he's hitting .251/.271/.286 this year (following a 2-for-3 performance on Saturday), that shouldn't come as a surprise. He's without a homer, and he has just five extra-base hits and two steals on the season. The run-scoring Fletcher was drafted for has come to fruition with 23 runs, which is 12th or better among all hitters at the three infield spots Fletcher is eligible for and is tied-19th among outfielders.

The problem now is with Mike Trout out for 6-8 weeks with an injury and Fletcher batting ninth in the lineup, the chances to score runs will diminish. His 2.7% BB% is in the second percentile among all qualified hitters and with a batting average barely above .250, there's simply no reason for the Angels to hit Fletcher anywhere except in the bottom third of the lineup.

Verdict - The positional flexibility is much less valuable in shallower leagues and he's droppable in such leagues. In the deepest leagues, such as 15+ teams, he can still provide some value as a plug-in at multiple positions but he's not a must-start option in any league.

Didi Gregorius - SS, Philadelphia Phillies - 59% rostered

Gregorius (elbow) was placed on the IL with a right elbow impingement earlier this week. Prior to his injury, Gregorius had been a disappointment with a .229/.266/.364 slash line, all numbers being his lowest since 2014 (his last year in Arizona). His 20.3% K% is a career-high and his 3.9% BB% is a career-low, further compounding his poor start to the year. He had hit four homers and his 22 RBI were tied-4th most among shortstops before he went on the IL. Only Javier Baez, Xander Bogaerts and Bo Bichette had more as of last Monday.

Gregorius was regularly hitting in the middle of the Phillies batting order, with most of his appearances coming fifth or sixth in the lineup. Following his diagnosis, Gregorius said he was "unable to extend his arm" while batting, so if he's been suffering from elbow discomfort for a while, it could help explain his offensive struggles. The concern now is that this injury is in the same elbow as the one that required Tommy John Surgery back in 2018. There's no mention that anything is linked, but should there be a long-term issue in his right elbow, Gregorius could be out for some time.

Verdict - Gregorius can be placed on your IL (assuming you have IL spots). However, given the recent glut of injuries, if you have better options to use up your IL spots, feel free to drop Gregorius.

Hold For Now

Eddie Rosario - OF, Cleveland Indians - 77% rostered

In a surprise move, on Wednesday Rosario found himself moved up to No. 2 in the Indians lineup. Perhaps it was to get his bat going as he entered that game with a .209/.265/.331 line and just two homers on the season. He does have five stolen bases, but all of them came in April. That move didn't appear to work as he went 0-for-4. He has stuck there into the weekend and went 2-for-4 on Friday and 1-for-4 on Saturday to lift his slash line to .212/.264/.325 on the year. While looking at his numbers this year, I couldn't find any reason to keep faith in Rosario and I even reached out to my fellow RotoBaller writers for their input.

It was pointed out that he's always been a slow starter. That might be even more pronounced this year being on a new team, and we can see from the below breakdown of his slash line per month throughout his career that Rosario might just need some time to heat up at the plate. Franmil Reyes (oblique) left Saturday's game with an oblique injury, so it's more likely Rosario will continue to feature in the heart of the Indians lineup should Reyes miss time.

March/April - .233/.270/.421
May - .292/.317/.472
June - .297/.344/.531
July - .291/.326/.451
August - .272/.300/.463
September/October - .262/.295/.497

Mike Yastrzemski - OF, San Francisco Giants - 84% rostered

Yastrzemski didn't have as long of a track record prior to this season when compared to others on this week's Cut List, but his previous two years since his 2019 debut had been impressive. In 161 games, he had 31 homers, 103 runs scored, 90 RBI and four steals with a .281/.357/.535 slash line and finished eighth in the NL MVP voting last year. This year, Yastrzemski is hitting .211/.326/.472, but has homered six times in his first 35 games.

My big concern about Yastrzemski is his expected stats are worse than his actual stats (which are already pretty bad), highlighted by his xwOBA being .300 (25th percentile) while his actual wOBA is .341. He does still have an excellent walk rate (12.5%) and defensively is one of the better right fielders in MLB.  There's legitimate concern that the oblique issue, which has seen him miss time already this year, is lingering and contributing to his struggles. Unless we're told about that, we will need to just assume (and hope) he's just out of sync and struggling to start the season but will come around soon. He's still worth keeping rostered given the upside he's displayed since 2019, but the leash is certainly shortening.

Brandon Lowe - 1B/2B/OF, Tampa Bay Rays - 87% rostered

The reason Lowe is featured here is simple: he cannot hit lefties. He's homered nine times in 42 games, but has a .203/.317/.412 line and is sitting out more often when the Rays are facing a left-handed pitcher (LHP). He started at second base on Saturday against Robbie Ray and hit third in the lineup, but went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against him. A quick glance at his splits this year tells us the full story.

Vs LHP .080/.161/.200, two homers in 56 plate appearances with a 39.3% K% and 7.1% BB%.
Vs RHP .262/.387/.515, seven homers in 124 plate appearances with a 25.0% K% and 14.5% BB%.

While Lowe's career splits aren't quite as egregious, until he can show he can hit LHP consistently, he's likely to sit against them more often. That will limit the chances he'll get to prove he can actually hit lefties. In daily leagues, you can swap him out when he's benched against a southpaw, but in weekly leagues, that's not a luxury fantasy managers have and in shallow weekly leagues, it's justifiable to drop him.

On the Hot Seat

Matt Chapman - 3B, Oakland Athletics - 89% rostered

The one thing Chapman has going for him is being an elite third baseman, which is something that will keep him in the lineup during even the worst slumps. He's currently in an 0-for-14 skid over his last four games with three walks. Chapman had offseason hip surgery and there's been concern his offensive struggles have been a lingering side effect of that. Given he has a .214/.317/.371 line so far this year, that train of thought is perfectly understandable.

That makes even more sense when we look at his May numbers and can see he's been warming up this month. He's now hitting .246/.333/.348 this month, although only one of his five homers this season have come in May. If we look at his spray chart on the year, we'll see how Chapman has hit some long doubles and triples this year, so there's been no problem with him hitting the ball hard when he does make contact.

Chapman's career batting average before this year was .255, so it's not entirely unexpected that he's only hitting .214 so far in 2021. The fact that Chapman got off to such a slow start (which isn't the norm for him) does make it seem plausible that the hip surgery was impacting him offensively, and if he can start to turn his improving batting average into more power moving forward, Chapman will more than likely end the year with numbers similar to his preseason projections. He's hitting a career-high 32.7% flyballs (according to Statcast), but has a career-low 10.9% HR/FB rate, so it's perfectly reasonable to believe his power numbers also returns the further along in his recovery from hip surgery he gets.

The Reddit Requests

When I put out the call for readers to name pitchers they wanted me to cover, quite a few people still named hitters. So to ensure they still get their wish, the most commonly requested hitters from two weeks ago are below.

Tommy Pham - OF, San Diego Padres - 54% rostered

I get it that Pham's numbers are abysmal. Just one home run and a .193 batting average is not what you drafted him for, and while the four steals are nice, they don't make up for the rest of his numbers. When asked about Pham, I'm quick to point people to his Statcast profile. Of course, it needs to be taken in context, but Pham is hitting the ball hard and his expected numbers are considerably better than his actual numbers. His xwOBA (.370), which is considered one of the best signifiers of a players' fortune, is in the 72nd percentile and is significantly better than his actual wOBA (.286). Trent Grisham (heel) left Friday's game with a heel injury and wasn't in Saturday's lineup. Pham took his spot as the leadoff hitter on Saturday and went 0-for-1 with four walks to raise his BB% to 18.1% (95th percentile). If his fortunes do turn around, Pham could go on a tear at any moment.

Max Kepler - OF, Minnesota Twins - 54% rostered

The Twins have been dreadful and they currently sport the worst record in MLB (16-29). Following a COVID-19 outbreak to start the season, news emerged that the Twins had been unable to take pre-game batting practice for all but two games in the opening three weeks of the season. Even since then, Kepler hasn't been able to produce regularly for the Twins and has just a .212/.307/.424 on the season. He has shown improvement in the last 10 days however, putting together a .250/.342/.625 line and hitting two of his four homers on the year in that span. Following last night's double and triple, Kepler has an extra-base hit in his last three games. Having never topped six steals in a season before, Kepler already has five this year (on five attempts) and his 10.9% BB% should help him pick up more. Given Kepler is a career .237 hitter, his numbers aren't too far from what we should expect and there's every chance he matches his projected numbers at the end of the season.

Ian Happ - 2B/3B/OF, Chicago Cubs - 70% rostered

Happ's season so far has been a tale of two halves. He went on the IL on May 3 and at that point, he had a .167/.307/.250 slash line with two homers and one stolen base. Since his return last weekend, Happ is hitting .355/.394/.839 with four homers, seven runs and seven RBI. That is despite going 0-for-5 on his first game back and 0-for-4 last night. If you've held on to Happ through his early-season struggles, you are now being rewarded and you should continue to enjoy the ride. If you already dropped him, I suggest you go back and see if he's still available.

Victor Robles - OF, Washington Nationals - 37% rostered

Robles (ankle) is someone I've sat on the fence about somewhat. He's flashed his potential in 2019, but hasn't been able to replicate that since and he's not been worthy of rostering in fantasy. He has just started to heat up though, and since last Friday, was 7-for-17 with five doubles and two steals. He's still searching for his first homer of the season, but the numbers were starting to improve. That was until he sprained his ankle and looks to be heading to the IL. He's been out since Thursday without being placed on the IL, so he could still return in the coming days. Even if he does end up on the IL, it shouldn't be a long absence providing there is no additional damage to the ankle, so you should just put him on your IL if you've kept him rostered to this point. Whenever he does return to the field, it's worth giving him a couple of weeks to see if the recent improvements stick. If they don't, he can be dropped in shallower leagues.

Josh Bell - 1B, Washington Nationals - 58% rostered

Another Nationals hitter who has turned things around since last weekend. Despite hitting .357/.418/.536 over the last 10 days, Bell is still only hitting .193/.256/.377 on the season and has homered five times in 31 games. His 28.0% K% is a career-high and his 7.2% BB% is a career-low. I've mentioned before when asked on my thoughts about Josh Bell that outside of a historic start to the 2019 season, in which he homered 18 times in the first two months of the season, he's been a below-average hitter. The fact he was able to go on such a torrid run does offer hope he can do it again. but betting on a repeat of something so historic will likely lead you to washing away the egg on your face more often than not. In shallower leagues, there are likely more reliable and consistent middle-infielders on your waivers.

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