RADIO
We are now about six weeks into the MLB season. It’s definitely flying by and before you know it, it will be Memorial Day, July 4th, and then the All-Star Break. These are all arbitrary dates you will hear thrown around as target dates for when you will have a large enough sample size to actually analyze your fantasy baseball teams' strengths and needs. I do not disagree with the sentiment that you need a large enough sample size to properly judge fantasy baseball teams - except for when it comes to saves and bullpen usage.
So many changes occur with bullpens week-to-week or almost day-to-day. That can be both good and frustrating for fantasy managers in need of saves. For one, trying to pick up the newest closer off the waiver wire is a way to burn through your FAAB very quickly. Additionally, saves are a role-dependent category, so you know at this point if you have a source of saves or not on your team. Looking over my teams, I have some with a surplus of closers (I mean I do write this article!) and some teams that can be in need of bolstering the category.
Rather than trying to blow through FAAB, you can use some of the names in this column to find speculative save arms to add for cheap. You can also find some safe targets that you can feel comfortable acquiring in a trade.
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Weekly Bullpen Report
Arizona Diamondbacks
Stefan Crichton’s numbers may not blow you away, but he is getting the saves for the D-backs. He has received the last four save opportunities and has converted on all four. As long as he has the closer role for Arizona he is worthy of rostering in fantasy, but if he loses the gig, he should lose his spot on your team. Joakim Soria and Chris Devenski are both back and are ninth-inning options here.
Soria, who has struggled a bit, did get the ninth in a non-save situation this week and was the favorite for saves coming into the season. Devenski got the first save chance of the season for the D-backs and converted, before landing on the IL. As for ratios, there are not a whole lot of great options here, although Caleb Smith has pitched well out of the pen. In 18.2 innings, he has a 2.41 ERA, 3.38 SIERA, 1.07 WHIP and a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Atlanta Braves
Will Smith is the unquestioned closer here, but the Braves bullpen suddenly has new options if he misses time. They got Chris Martin back from the IL and re-signed Shane Greene, who has yet to join the Braves but is expected to soon. Both Martin and Greene have closer experience and have been providers of strong ratios in recent years with Atlanta. Neither is a great pickup if you solely need saves now, but that would change if Smith missed time. Tyler Matzek is another source of ratios as he has a 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 39 percent strikeout rate and 2.84 SIERA this season.
Thursday Update: Will Smith was SHELLED against the Blue Jays. He recorded just one out but allowed five hits and four runs, bringing his ERA to 5.02. He also took the loss. It was a terrible outing for those who roster Smith, but it is still just one bad outing. Do not worry. Martin pitched a clean seventh inning.
Baltimore Orioles
Cesar Valdez did blow a save against the Mets this week, but he has picked up eight on the year and has a strong 2.40 ERA. He is far from your traditional closer, but he has been effective and his job is not in jeopardy over one blown save. If he does continue to struggle, Tanner Scott and Paul Fry are two options who could be next in line. Scott has been used often in setup situations, but Fry has actually been the better pitcher who provides strong ratios.
Boston Red Sox
Matt Barnes is the unquestioned closer here and he has also been their best reliever. If he was to miss time, Adam Ottavino would be in the saves picture, but he has been up and down this season. Garrett Whitlock is a sleeper to see save opportunities if anything happened to Barnes, and he has provided elite ratios so far this season. In 17.1 innings, he has pitched to a 1.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 2.32 SIERA and a 29 percent strikeout rate. He is a worthy pickup in 15-team roto leagues or AL-only leagues.
Chicago Cubs
Craig Kimbrel is the clear-cut closer here, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other arms to take notice of in this pen. Andrew Chafin is likely the next man up if Kimbrel was to go down, and he has been a strong source of ratios. In his 18 innings, which is the most of any reliever on the Cubs, he has pitched to a 3.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 3.19 SIERA and a 28 percent strikeout rate. Another is Rex Brothers, who has pitched to a 2.77 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 1.98 SIERA (team-low) with a whopping 43 percent strikeout rate in 13 innings. I would rank them Chafin then Brothers.
Chicago White Sox
This bullpen is pretty straightforward: Liam Hendriks is the closer and Aaron Bummer is the next man up. Those are also the two arms you want to roster for fantasy purposes. Hendriks is universally rostered, but Bummer is not and he has provided strong ratios this season. Bummer has a 1.42 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 2.28 SIERA and a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Cincinnati Reds
This remains one of the toughest bullpens to figure out in all of baseball. There are four late-inning options in this pen and all four have a save - but only Amir Garrett has more than one. And those two saves have come with some pretty rough ratios. In the past week, the Reds have used Lucas Sims and Tejay Antone in the later innings, while Sean Doolittle has been used typically before those two other arms. Antone has the best numbers in this pen, pitching to a 2.41 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 37 percent strikeout rate and a team-low 2.82 SIERA. He also can go multiple innings, which only helps add value to those ratios. He is the arm I would most be interested in for fantasy. And while Garrett has struggled, he doesn't seem to be going away, which only makes things murkier for the other three. I still think there is a chance he leads this team in saves and would rank these arms for fantasy: Antone, Garrett, Sims, Doolittle.
Cleveland Indians
This bullpen was tricky early in the season, but it has basically become a two-man show, at least for fantasy purposes. Emmanuel Clase is the main closer, picking up seven saves on the season and pitching to a 1.10 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP and 24 percent strikeout rate. He was used in the ninth of a tie game this week, which just further shows that the ninth inning is his. James Karinchak is the other arm of note her. He pitched the 10th in that game and got his first win of the season, to go with his three saves. He is Cleveland’s best reliever and one of the best in the game, pitching to a 0.52 ERA with a 1.25 expected ERA, 0.46 WHIP and a wild 53 percent strikeout rate. His ratios and strikeouts are absolutely elite and the occasional save doesn’t hurt either. He is a must-roster arm in roto formats. Nick Wittgren is the third late-inning arm here, but his ratios do not warrant him being rostered in anything besides AL-only leagues.
Colorado Rockies
Daniel Bard blew his third save of the season. His ERA is now up to 7.11 this season with a 2.13 WHIP. It’s been brutal and definitely not worth the three saves he has given you thus far. A change has to be coming, and there are two replacement candidates: Mychal Givens and Robert Stephenson. Givens has pitched to a 2.63 ERA, 3.54 SIERA, 1.17 WHIP and 28 percent strikeout rate. Stephenson has pitched to a 3.07 ERA, 3.46 SIERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 22 percent strikeout rate. I would take a shot on Givens, assuming he would get the first crack since he has a history of closing, but both are worthy of taking a cheap speculative add on before one is officially named the closer.
Detroit Tigers
There is not a lot to love in this bullpen. Gregory Soto is the one arm that I am really interested in from this bullpen. He has picked up four saves and pitched to a 2.87 ERA, but does have a rough 1.79 WHIP. Michael Fulmer has pitched well as a reliever this season, pitching to a 2.70 ERA, 2.48 SIERA, 0.98 WHIP and a 33 percent strikeout rate. He also has worked his way into the next-in-line for saves discussion. He is a deeper league ratio option for now.
Thursday Update: Soto came in for the ninth but allowed two runs on two hits and just recorded one out. Fulmer came in and got out of the inning and picked up his second save of the season. He is definitely someone to pickup when waivers run this week.
Houston Astros
This is another bullpen that is pretty straightforward right now. Ryan Pressly is both the clear-cut closer and the best arm in this pen. The only issue is that he is universally rostered. Ryne Stanek is the best ratio option in this bullpen as he has pitched to a 1.76 ERA, 2.19 SIERA, 0.78 WHIp and a 39 percent strikeout rate. It would take an injury to Pressly for Stanek to get the save opportunities, but he will provide strong ratios and strikeouts.
Kansas City Royals
We are halfway through May and the Royals do not have a save yet this month. Their last save was on April 28. Josh Staumont picked that save up and has a team-high three saves while pitching to a 2.70 ERA, 3.88 SIERA, 0.96 WHIP and 28 percent strikeout rate. He is the closer for now, but if he struggles, they can turn back to Greg Holland or perhaps Wade Davis. But my favorite option for ratios and as next in line for saves is Scott Barlow, who has pitched to a 2.84 ERA, a team-low 3.17 SIERA, with a 1.32 WHIP and a 30 percent strikeout rate.
Los Angeles Angels
This bullpen is pretty gross for fantasy purposes. Raisel Iglesias is the clear-cut closer and despite his struggles, he has a long leash. Also, it's not like the Angels have another great option to take his place. Mike Mayers and Aaron Slegers would be candidates to get saves if Iglesias misses time, but neither provides good enough ratios to roster now. Go with Iglesias and forget the rest for now.
Los Angeles Dodgers
After a slightly rocky start to the season, Kenley Jansen has now buckled down six saves with a 1.76 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 27 percent strikeout rate. He is the closer to roster here and should get a lot of save opportunities when the Dodgers do what they always do and get red hot in the summer. The other reliever to take note of here is Blake Treinen, who has pitched to a team-low 2.30 SIERA with a 2.35 ERA, 32 percent strikeout rate and a 1.43 WHIP. Outside of the WHIP, those are great ratios and he could add a couple of saves if Jansen is unavailable or misses time.
Miami Marlins
Yimi Garcia has picked up six saves now while pitching to a 1.76 ERA with a 0.91 WHIP. He has been great, besides one little bump in the road. The next options up in this pen should Garcia miss time would be Dylan Floro and Anthony Bass. We have already seen Bass struggle in this role and he still has an ERA over five. I am not interested in him, but it's easy to get excited for Floro, who has pitched to a 1.08 ERA, 0.90 WHIP, 3.09 SIERA and has a 24 percent strikeout rate.
Milwaukee Brewers
This bullpen is as straightforward as they get. Josh Hader is an elite, top-two closer in the game. Devin Williams is the next man up and is a great source of ratios and strikeouts. There is one sleeper arm here though for ratios and potentially saves if Hader misses time. That would be Brad Boxberger, who has pitched to a 4.15 ERA, with a 0.92 WHIP, 2.84 SIERA and a 28 percent strikeout rate. He is purely a deep league speculative stash best suited for NL-only leagues.
Minnesota Twins
This bullpen has been tough to figure out and it doesn’t help that they have not had a save opportunity since May 3, when Taylor Rogers got his second of the season. Last Friday they did use Alex Colome in the seventh and Hansel Robles in the eighth before scoring a run in the ninth and making it a non save situation. Rogers seems like the front runner to get a save if they get an opportunity any time soon. It is possible we can see Colome back in that role at some point, but he has to earn the trust. Those three are the top arms in this pen, but Rogers is the only one you need to start for now.
New York Mets
Edwin Diaz is the closer here and while he has had some ups and downs this season, he still provides saves, strikeouts and some good ratios. Outside of Diaz, there are two other arms to take note of in this bullpen: Trevor May and Jeurys Familia. May has often been used as the setup man for Diaz, has a save this season and pitched to a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 2.16 SIERA and a 34 percent strikeout rate. Familia also has a save and does have a long history of closing here, and has pitched to a 0.84 ERA, 3.57 SIERA, 1.59 WHIP and 22 percent strikeout rate. May can be used for ratios in anything deeper than 12-team leagues, while Familia is more for NL-only leagues.
New York Yankees
This is another straightforward bullpen. Aroldis Chapman is still an elite closer and has nine saves already this season. He is one of the best in the game and universally rostered. If he misses time, Chad Green is next in line and he is pitching like his old self again. He has a 2.33 ERA, 2.65 SIERA, 0.78 WHIP and a 31 percent strikeout rate. He can be used for ratios in 15-team leagues or AL-only formats.
Oakland A’s
This bullpen is both tough to figure out and simple at the same time. What I mean by that is we can not say with certainty which reliever will get the save opportunity on a given night, but we know it will be one of Lou Trivino and Jake Diekman. Both have at least five saves on the season. Diekman has been the better source of ratios and strikeouts. Both of these two should be rostered in all Roto formats. The rest of the bullpen can be left on the waivers for the time being.
Philadelphia Phillies
Hector Neris is the closer here and has picked up seven saves with a 2.60 ERA. Jose Alvarado and Sam Coonrod both have two saves and would be next in line for save chances, but I would lean Coonrod, as Alvarado is a hard-throwing lefty that they like to pick when to use him. Also, he is very wild and managers don’t tend to love that in a closer. Coonrod can be added for ratios as well as he has pitched to a 1.06 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, and a 2.73 SIERA with a 27 percent strikeout rate.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Richard Rodriguez has all six saves for the Pirates this season and should be rostered everywhere. With Kyle Crick on the IL, we could see Sam Howard or David Bednar get save chances if Rodriguez was unavailable. Both are also useful pieces in NL-only leagues as Bednar has a 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 30 percent strikeout rate. Howard has a 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 36 percent strikeout rate.
San Diego Padres
Mark Melancon is looking like a league-winner with 12 saves on the year already. He is obviously awesome, but so are a lot of other arms in this bullpen. There are a number of deeper options that all have a SIERA of 3.30 or less, with a strikeout rate over 25 percent in Craig Stammen, Drew Pomeranz, Keone Kela and Emilio Pagan. I rank them: Pomeranz, Pagan, Kela, Stammen because that is how I think the save pecking order would go if Melancon misses time.
Seattle Mariners
There are two save options - one that is reliable and one that is volatile. The reliable option is Kendall Graveman who has four saves to go along with a 0.00 ERA, 0.49 WHIP, 33 percent strikeout rate and a 2.44 SIERA. The volatile option is Rafael Montero who also has four saves but with a 5.51 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 20 percent strikeout rate and a 3.53 SIERA. Both should be rostered in Roto leagues as long as they are getting saves, but its much riskier to do with Montero. The rest of this bullpen can be left on the waiver wire.
San Francisco Giants
Jake McGee has picked up 10 saves for the Giants and bounced back nicely this week after a blown save in Colorado last week. But you can give him a pass for blowing one in Coors Field. The other pitcher to take note of here is Tyler Rogers, who has picked two saves in McGee’s absence, and has pitched nicely this season with a 0.87 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, with a 13 percent strikeout rate and a 3.64 SIERA. He is an NL-only option for the time being.
St. Louis Cardinals
Alex Reyes just keeps getting the job done. He has a 0.47 ERA and 10 saves this season. He obviously should be rostered in all formats. The other pitcher to take note of here is Giovanny Gallegos. First, he is a workhorse pitching 21 innings with a 2.57 ERA, 0.67 WHIP, with a 2.75 SIERA and a 30 percent strikeout rate. He is a great source of strikeouts and ratios and could get save chances if Reyes misses time.
Tampa Bay Rays
Diego Castillo is on the IL with a groin injury, which opens up save opportunities for others in Tampa. The last save chance for them went to Andrew Kittredge, his second of the season. Jeffrey Springs got one last week, also his second of the season. Pete Fairbanks is also in the saves picture although he does not have a save this season. All three of these pitchers are worthy of taking a cheap shot on if you are in need of saves. When Castillo returns I expect he goes back into the closer role here, so do not overspend to land a temporary option here.
Texas Rangers
Ian Kennedy is the unquestioned closer here and rostered everywhere. But there are two other arms that provide ratios and strikeouts and would be next up for saves if anything happens to Kennedy. The first is Joely Rodriguez who has pitched to a 1.86 ERA, with a 1.14 WHIP, 1.75 SIERA and a 31 percent strikeout rate. The second is Kolby Allard, who has a 3.52 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 2.27 SIERA and a 31 percent strikeout rate.
Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays closer spot seems to be cursed this season. Whoever is closing games for the Blue Jays ends up on the IL. The latest victim is Rafael Dolis, who is sidelined with a calf injury. With him sidelined, the save chances have gone to Jordan Romano. He got a save this week and on Thursday with a four-run lead he was used in the ninth inning. They could turn to Tyler Chatwood or Ryan Borucki, but it seems that Romano is once again the go-to closer.
Washington Nationals
Brad Hand struggled as of late giving up runs in three straight outings and now has two blown saves on the season. He still worth holding onto in fantasy as he was reliable before this bad stretch but be on high alert that a couple more bad outings could lead to a change in the closer role. If they do make a switch, expect Daniel Hudson to be the next man up as he has a history of closing here and has been their most effective reliever pitching in relief. He has a 1.69 ERA, 3.26 SIERA, with a 0.75 WHIP and 30 percent strikeout rate. Add him now if he is available because if you wait until a change is made it will cost a lot more.
All stats entering Thursday May 13th unless otherwise stated.
Make sure to follow Michael Florio on Twitter, @MichaelFFlorio.
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