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Analysis of five fantasy baseball first basemen drafted in the later rounds. Are these 1B undervalued players and potential sleepers to target in deeper drafts?
Once you reach the middle-to-late rounds of drafts, everyone wants to draft some upside fliers that can provide a great return on value. You can take a risk or two on a variety of different players, including a prospect, forgotten veterans, players returning from injuries, or even players with skills but have playing time concerns. But it's essential to know the player pool so you can take a chance at a spot in the draft that you're comfortable without deviating from your overall strategy, and also avoid players with some question marks coming into the season.
Today we are looking at some later-round first basemen for you to consider drafting, and also those to be cautious of. Are their ADPs undervalued? Will they make significant contributions and be one of your later-round draft sleepers? Read on to see our take.
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Tommy La Stella, San Francisco Giants
It took six major league seasons before San Francisco Giants journeyman infielder Tommy La Stella found his stroke. In 2019 in only 292 at-bats, La Stella hit .295 with 16 home runs and 44 RBI. Unfortunately, a leg injury ended his career year with the Angels. While he may never repeat his '19 production, there were a few gains which carried over into 2020 and should also continue in 2021.
His contact rate skyrocketed. It jumped to 91% in 2019 and surged to 95% last year. His walk rate in 2020 of 12% was above his career average, and his ground-ball rate plummeted to just 40% (from 53% in 2018). While his upside is limited and everyday playing time won't be guaranteed, La Stella has a low probability of being a bust at his ADP. As a member of the Giants, consider La Stella as a middle infielder in deep mixed formats.
Carlos Santana, Kansas City Royals
Kansas City Royals first baseman/designated hitter Carlos Santana gets overlooked every single season. The reason is because of rotisserie bias (Roto is the more popular format), but Santana is always such a value in points leagues, where hitters lose points for strikeouts but are awarded points for walks. Santana has posted a walk rate equal to or higher than his strikeout rate in three straight seasons. Even when his strikeout rate is higher than the walk rate, it's not by much. His strikeout rate has also been below 17 percent in five straight seasons, meaning that he will not lose you a lot of points in those formats.
He also provides a consistently high on-base percentage, which is huge in those formats. But it's not like he should be totally ignored in Roto leagues, either. The ISO did dip in the shortened 2020 season, but it was at .234 in 2019, the second-highest mark of his career, and he swatted 34 homers with 110 runs, 93 RBI and four stolen bases that season. Due to his disappointing shortened season, Santana now has an ADP of 281 overall, which seems insanely low since he was going around 136 overall last season. Take the discount, especially in points leagues.
C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies
Veteran 1B C.J. Cron came into 2020 riding high off of a 2019 that saw him finish with 25 HR, 78 RBI, and a triple slash of .253/.311/.469. While Cron's batting average was down at the start of the 2020 season, he had a 19.2% barrel rate and .894 OPS in 13 games before missing the rest of the season with a knee injury. Although Cron was only able to find a minor league contract this offseason, signing with the Rockies presents salivating possibilities for the 31-year-old. Cron only has to beat out Josh Fuentes in order to be the starting 1B on a team that plays in the most hitter-friendly park in baseball.
One of the key reasons to believe in Cron is the growth he showed from 2017-19. Cron began to be more aggressive in the zone, pulling the ball more, and increasing his launch angle. As a result, the years between 2017-19 saw him average 24 HR on a .224 ISO with a .251 batting average. He had over a 10% barrel rate each year and a Hard% of 41%, so he wasn't a one-year flash in the pan. With Coors Field being proven to boost BABIP, and thus batting average, there's a real chance that Cron could hit .270 with 30+ HRs if he wins the 1B job. Even if he splits time, and only plays in 110+ games, he will provide solid power production and RBIs in that hitting environment, which makes him a solid gamble around pick 250 in most drafts.
Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox first baseman Bobby Dalbec made his major league debut last year after slugging his way through the minors. After hitting 79 homers with a .505 slugging percentage over four years in the minors, Dalbec launched eight home runs and slashed .263/.359/.600 in just 23 games last year. He was trying for the fences on every swing though, as he posted a 21.2 percent swinging strike rate and an astronomical 42.4 percent strikeout rate.
But when he made contact it was solid as he recorded a 14.8 degree launch angle, 22 percent barrel rate and 43.9 percent hard-hit rate. Looking towards this season, managers should expect the average to come down a bit as Dalbec's .394 BABIP was a career-high and his .199 xBA suggests he was somewhat lucky with his average. Dalbec will give you about 30 homers with an average in the low .200s, but for managers looking for power late in drafts he'll be a steal at his current ADP of 280.
Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels
A late-blooming prospect, Los Angeles Angels first baseman Jared Walsh shot up through the Angels system in 2018 when, as a 24-year-old, he compiled a .277/.359/.536 slash line with 29 homers in 130 games across three minor league levels. Walsh started 2019 in Triple-A and had a .325/.423/.686 line with 36 homers in 98 games while splitting time between the majors, where he struggled to the tune of a .329 slugging percentage and homered just once in 87 plate appearances. Walsh didn't start the 2020 season with the Angels but worked his way into regular playing time as the team's first baseman by September.
In 32 games last year, Walsh hit nine homers with a .293/.324/.646 line while hitting second in the lineup during most of his appearances. He was considered a two-way player during his early career and actually threw five innings for the Angels in 2019, but he did not pitch last season and it appears as though the Angels see him as their regular first baseman moving forward. That actually helps Walsh's fantasy value, as it means more games batting in front of Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. The signs are encouraging for Walsh as a Major League hitter with a power profile who can also hit for average. His current ADP of around 188 already factors in the lack of much Major League experience, but Walsh is primed to contribute in all fantasy stats except steals.
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