RADIO
Welcome, RotoBallers. Hockey is one of my favorite sports to watch and play from a DFS perspective and I am thrilled to be covering this sport over at RotoBaller! As always, I will do my best to give you the stats and info you need to build the best lineups possible for your GPP and cash game NHL contests on DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you are new to playing NHL DFS, there are several things to know that will help you get caught up to speed. The first thing to know is that stacking lines is important and correlating your plays can pay off. In hockey, if someone scores a goal, there's a good chance that some on his team will receive an assist on that goal, so you want to build lineups around players skating together. The second thing is to make sure you look at the two sites and see the different ways to obtain points. On DraftKings, you get bonus points for 5+ shots or 3+ blocked shots so someone like Alex Ovechkin who is a volume shooter tends to be a better play there just because he can rack up additional points based on his style of play.
Today I'll be bringing you my NHL lineup picks, analysis and advice for NHL DFS contests on DraftKings and Fanduel for Thursday, September 3rd, 2020 at 7:00 PM. Be sure to also check out our awesome NHL tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, Projections, and DFS Cheat Sheets! Feel free to follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks as I am happy to engage with readers and try to answer your questions. Good luck RotoBallers!
NHL DFS Analysis and Picks for 9/3
- Philadelphia Flyers (-104) vs. New York Islanders(-112)
- Vegas Golden Knights (-240) vs. Vancouver Canucks (+200)
NHL DFS Goalie Analysis Matrix
| Team | Rank GA | Rank SA | Rank GF | Rank SF | Total |
| Vegas | 12 | 24 | 24 | 7 | 19.5 |
| NY Islanders | 4 | 23 | 22 | 13 | 14.5 |
| Vancouver | 9 | 11 | 20 | 22 | 12.75 |
| Philadelphia | 3 | 21 | 13 | 18 | 14.75 |
The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
Power Play Matrix
| Matchup | PP% | Opp PK % |
| New York | 11 | 17 |
| Philadelphia | 23 | 14 |
| Vancouver | 6 | 6 |
| Vegas | 7 | 15 |
The Power Play matrix is to help locate matchups that can be exploited should there be an odd-man advantage during the game. Just like the goalie matrix above, the teams are matched up based on their own power play percentage rank and their opponent's penalty kill percentage. When looking at this matrix, you will want to look for teams that succeed in the power play rank while their opponent has a poor penalty kill rank. The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against, and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents to ensure we get the correct data for each slate! The matrix above takes the averages of four categories and creates a rating scale to help you decide which goalies to use, which goalies to target against and conversely which teams could be viable from a stacking standpoint. It looks at four categories: Goals Allowed (GA), Shots Allowed (SA), Goals For (GF), Shots For (SF). The higher the overall rating in the last column indicates that it is a more dangerous matchup for that team's goalie while it might be beneficial to stack against him. I match and sync this every day to the actual opponents that they are facing every slate so this is always slate specific.
NHL DFS Core Four
The Core 4 picks are to help you construct your cash game lineups while also giving you plays that you can use and build around in GPPs. Stacking is critical in NHL DFS so you might want to pair these suggestions with a linemate or two, especially when building your tournament lineups.
1) DFS Center: Brock Nelson ($5,900 DK/ $6,500 FD)
Nelson has been a steady presence for this Islanders hockey club throughout this postseason and with Mathew Barzal banged up, Nelson might need to take on an even bigger role. He has registered three points in his last two games against the Flyers and recorded back-to-back double-digit DK performances. In eight games against Philly, Nelson has scored three goals and four assists and is averaging 12.5 DK points per game. With the lack of upside on this slate from the center position, Nelson gives you a solid floor to rely on in cash games.
Other Top Center Plays:
- William Karlsson ($6,200 DK/ $5,600 FD)
- Kevin Hayes ($5,300 DK/ $5,500 FD)
2) DFS Winger: Max Pacioretty ($7,400 DK/ $7,600 FD)
If you are going to spend up at any position for any player on this slate, it has to be for Max Pacioretty. He has been a staple in this article over the past week because of the high floor and high ceiling that he has in this matchup. Pacioretty has taken 23 shots against Vancouver this season which means he is averaging close to five shots per game. In addition, he has registered 10 total points in just seven games played against the Canucks all season long which tells us Vancouver still has no clue on how to slow down Pacioretty. He is viable in all formats and will be one of the higher owned players on this slate.
Other Top Winger Plays:
- Claude Giroux ($5,600 DK/ $7,300 FD)
- Jordan Eberle ($5,100 DK/ $5,400 FD)
3) DFS Defenseman: Shea Theodore ($6,700 DK / $6,700 FD)
The pricetag is getting high for Theodore but he has been the most consistent player for all of the teams playing on this slate. Against Vancouver in the playoffs, Theodore is averaging 18.4 DK points per game and has had four of those five games played go for double-digit points (with the fifth game scoring 9.5 DK points). On the season, Theodore has dominated Vancouver by recording 12 points in seven games played as five of those points have come on the powerplay. With the high floor that Shea brings it is hard to not lock him into your cash game lineup.
Other Defenseman Plays:
- Alexander Edler ($5,600 DK/ $4,400 FD)
- Ivan Provorov ($5,200 DK/ $5,700 FD)
4) DFS Goalie: Robin Lehner ($8,200 DK/ $8,600 FD)
With Vegas being the largest favorite on the slate it makes sense to go right back to using Robin Lehner. While Vancouver got the best of the Golden Knights in their last game, Lehner only made 17 total saves which is not ideal from a fantasy scoring perspective. He did a great job limiting the Canucks to just two goals allowed but unfortunately, the Golden Knights offense was pretty quiet scoring one goal all game long. Lehner is 2-2 against Vancouver in the postseason and is only allowing 1.53 goals allowed per game and sporting a .940 save percentage against them. Also, throw into the fact that he has shut them out twice throughout the postseason, it is hard to consider any other goalie on this slate for cash game and tournament lineups.
DFS Value Plays
DFS Value Plays: Center
- J.G. Pageau ($5,000 DK/ $4,800 FD)
- Nicolas Roy ($2,800 DK/ $3,600 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Wing
- Brock Boeser ($4,700 DK/ $5,800 FD)
- Derick Brassard ($3,000 DK/ $4,200 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Defensemen
- Alec Martinez ($4,700 DK/ $4,000 FD)
- Devon Toews ($ 4,300 DK/ $3,900 FD)
DFS Value Plays: Goalie
- Semyon Varlamov ($7,800 DK/ $7,900 FD)
Top Team and DFS Line Stacks
The Islanders will be considered the "home team" in this game 6 matchup which goes in their favor. When they have had the home-matching advantage this series, they have gone 2-0 while averaging three goals scored while limiting Philly to just 1.5 goals per game. When digging into the line matchups, it seemed as if the Nelson line for New York spent a lot of time skating with the Couturier line which seemed to be a relatively high-event matchup with the Couturier line having a better corsi and more scoring chances. On the flip side, the Barzal line for New York spent a lot of time skating with the third and fourth line of the Flyers and ended up generating 13 scoring chances and seven high-danger opportunities in their two "home games". If Barzal is healthy and good to go, this top line for New York could be in a prime spot to generate a few points and be one of the highest-scoring lines on the slate.
Vegas has a chance to close out the series tonight against the Canucks and Vegas odds think that they will be able to do so. The Golden Knights are the largest favorites on the slate and are 2-0 against Vancouver when they were considered to be the away team in this series. Vancouver looks like they do a straight line match where they take their top line and match it with the opposing team's top line which actually works in the Golden Knights favor. The Horvat line for the Canucks has had a 39 corsi and is allowing 44 scoring chances attempted per 60 minutes of ice-time throughout this series which is really high. The Golden Knights top line has been stellar this series as they have posted a strong corsi of 63 while generating 55 scoring chances per 60 minutes of ice-time. One way to get contrarian in tournaments is by stacking the top Vegas power-play line which gets you some exposure to both of their top lines. Vancouver has been one of the worst penalty kill teams throughout the postseason and this is an area that Vegas succeeds at. If you are looking for more of a value line, the third line for Vegas featuring Alex Tuch is definitely in play. They have held their own on the offensive end by scoring three goals and five assists over their last five games played.
Top Stacks (In order):
- VGK1- Pacioretty, Karlsson, Stone
- NY1- Lee, Barzal, Eberle
- PHI1- Giroux, Couturier, Voracek
- NYI2- Beauvillier, Nelson, Bailey
Value Stacks:
- VGK3- Cousins, Roy, Tuch
- PHI2- Farabee, Hayes, Konecny
- NYI3- Brassard, Pageau, Komarov
