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The puck has dropped on the Stanley Cup Playoffs and there has already been a five-overtime game that forced a game to get moved from Tuesday night to Wednesday morning in Toronto.
The Columbus Blue Jackets and Tampa Bay Lightning played and played and played some more Tuesday, forcing the Boston Bruins and Carolina Hurricanes to move the first game of their playoff series.
Here are some angles to consider in each of the games on Wednesday’s Monkey Knife Fight NHL schedule:
CAROLINA-BOSTON
MORE OR LESS
Brad Marchand LESS THAN 5.5 FANTASY POINTS
Before the pandemic pause, the Bruins left winger was on a 13-game point streak, a relentless dominant force on Boston’s top line. During the three round-robin games, however, he failed to record a point, was minus-3 and had just five shots on goal. Maybe the Bruins were not highly motivated in those games but it does make it difficult to bank on Marchand in Game One against Carolina.
Dougie Hamilton LESS THAN 4.5 FANTASY POINTS
The good news for Carolina is that their star defenseman is expected to play his first game since suffering a broken leg in mid-January. He was having an outstanding season, probably the best of his career, so under normal circumstances he could be expected to produce. In his first game in more than six months, though, it might be asking a bit much.
As a reminder, here are point totals when it comes to MKF fantasy hockey points:
OFFENSE:
Goals = 3
Assists = 2
Shots on Goal = 1
Blocked Shots = 1
Shootout Goals = 1
GOALIE:
Goals against = -1 pt
Save= 0.2 pts
N.Y. ISLANDERS-WASHINGTON
MORE OR LESS
Semyon Varlamov MORE THAN 27.5 SAVES
During the regular season, the Islanders netminder averaged 27.8 saves per 60 minutes of action and he faces an Avalanche team that averaged 31.94 shots per game per 60 minutes, scoring 3.34 goals per 60 minutes, which works out to an average of 28.6 saves per 60 minutes. That nudges the expected towards more before we even consider the prospect of a game going to overtime.
Braden Holtby MORE THAN 26.5 SAVES
Washington’s starting goaltender recorded an average of 27.2 saves per 60 minutes during the regular season and he is going against an Islanders team that was not great at generating shots – 29.18 shots per 60 minutes is worst among playoff teams – so Islanders opponents averaged 27.4 saves per 60 minutes. That indicates a slight lean towards more.
ARIZONA-COLORADO
MORE OR LESS
Nathan MacKinnon MORE THAN 4.5 SHOTS ON GOAL + BLOCKS
The Avalanche star center averaged 4.61 shots on goal per game this season, so before we get to blocks, he’s already moving towards the over. Add in .45 blocked shots per game plus the Arizona Coyotes allowing 32.0 shots against per 60 minutes during the regular season – only Vancouver and Chicago allowed more among teams in the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs – and MacKinnon should be able to get loose against the Coyotes. He has combined for five or more shots plus blocks in 39 of 72 games this season.
Darcy Kuemper MORE THAN 29.5 SAVES
Goaltenders facing the Avalanche during the regular season averaged 29.3 saves per 60 minutes of play. Kuemper averaged 28.7 saves per 60 minutes during the regular season. However, he has needed to make at least 30 saves in six of his past seven starts.
MONTREAL-PHILADELPHIA
MORE OR LESS
Shea Weber LESS THAN 4.5 SHOTS ON GOAL + BLOCKS
Montreal’s bruising blueliner averaged a combined 4.6 shots plus blocks per game this season but he’s going up against a Flyers team that allowed 28.2 shots against per 60 minutes, the lowest rate in the National Hockey League. Weber recorded at least five shots plus blocks in 32 of 65 regular-season games and in two of four games against Pittsburgh so it’s nearly a coin flip before factoring in the Flyers’ stingy defensive record.
Carey Price MORE THAN 27.5 SAVES
During the regular season, Price averaged 27.8 save per 60 minutes of play and Flyers opponents averaged 27.7 save per 60 minutes of play. Price did have more than 30 saves in three of four games against Pittsburgh in the play-in round and has recorded at least 28 saves in 35 of 62 games overall this season.
VANCOUVER-ST. LOUIS
MORE OR LESS
Ryan O’Reilly MORE THAN 0.5 ASSISTS
The Blues center averaged 0.69 assists per game during the regular season but has recorded at least one assist in 37 of 74 games between the regular season and the round robin combined. Since that seems like a 50-50 proposition, the lean is towards the over because Vancouver is below-average defensively when it comes to both shots and goals against.
RAPID FIRE
Elias Pettersson +0.5 fantasy points vs. Vladimir Tarasenko
The Canucks are underdogs against the defending-champion Blues but Vancouver’s rising star center, Pettersson is a threat every time out. He had 66 points in 68 regular-season games before adding three points in four games against Minnesota and that consistent productivity makes him a lively underdog against Tarasenko, the talented Blues winger who missed most of the season due to shoulder surgery and did not record a point in two round-robin games.
