RADIO
RotoBaller's Ben Holmes takes a deep dive into the potential of an incredibly talented -- albeit very young -- Toronto Blue Jays lineup ahead of the 60-game 2020 season, in which they will be looking to snatch a playoff bid on the back of their youthful bats.
In 2019, the Yankees and Marlins were tied for the youngest starting lineup in the Majors at 26.5 years of age. Heading into 2020, the average age of the Blue Jays' starting lineup in 25.5, with 30-year-old Travis Shaw projected to be their oldest starter.
There is such a great deal of variance on how productive this offense will be. Most of their hitters have such a small sample size to analyze that it’s hard to predict how they will perform. With that being said, if everything clicks for this young, exciting roster, the Jays could surprise a lot of people in a 60-game season.
Looking back at the Toronto’s 67-95 season in 2019, the team wasn’t exactly pushing for a playoff spot. This was due in large part to their atrocious starting pitching. Their 4.79 ERA ranked 21st, and their leader in innings pitched was Trent Thornton (6-9), who sported a 4.84 ERA in 154.1 IP.
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Young Jays Ready to Fly
A healthy Matt Shoemaker and the addition of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Chase Anderson, and Tanner Roark should help the Jays play with a lead a little more in 2020, thus allowing the batters to see more hitter-friendly pitches. But, the Jays pitching improvements is a story for another article; let’s get back to their electric lineup.
One through nine, this lineup has nothing if not immense power, especially if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. can realize the 50-homer potential that he displayed during the 2019 Home Run Derby. There isn’t really a weak spot in the power department. (Derek Fisher would possibly be the exception, but he’s never really had the consistent playing time to prove himself.)
The team as a whole has to do better at putting balls in play; they finished ninth in home runs last season (247), but only 23rd in runs scored (726.) That’s because they were dead last in AVG (.236), striking out 24.9% of the time, sixth-highest amongst all teams in baseball. They’d be wise choke up on their bats a little more in 2020 to bring more players across home plate.
With that being said, they didn't play with their full squad of young studs for most of the season. Vlad played 123 games after being called up, Cavan Biggio played 100, Bo Bichette played 46, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. was limited to 87 due to a combination of injury and demotion.
It’s a shame for the Jays that they won’t be able to play 81 games at the Rogers Centre, where balls fly out at a high clip. Last season, they left the yard to the tune of 1.317 per game, by far the most in the Majors.
Without further ado, in order of their projected lineup position, let’s take a closer look at seven of the young elite talents the Jays will hope bring them a post-season berth in 2020.
Projected Opening Day Lineup:
1. Bo Bichette
2. Cavan Biggio
5. Travis Shaw
8. Derek Fisher
9. Danny Jansen
*The article doesn’t focus on the established 30-year old Shaw, veteran Randal Grichuk, who leads all Jays in service time (5.033), or Fisher, who is projected to hit eighth on Opening Day, but will likely find himself in and out of the lineup.
1. Bo Bichette
In 2019, the talk of Toronto media was Guerrero Jr. There was so much Vladdy that Bichette, the 14th-ranked prospect in baseball, slipped under the radar slightly until he was called up for the final two months of the season. When he finally came onto the scene, he absolutely exploded.
The 66th overall draft pick in 2016 got the call and proceeded to set two MLB records by hitting ten extra-base hits (XBAs) in his first nine games, and by doubling in nine consecutive games. In 46 games, he hit 11 HRs, a remarkable 18 doubles, swiped four bases, and had a .358 OBP.
At 6-foot and 185 lbs, Bichette doesn’t strike an imposing figure, but his .260 ISO and 42.9% Hard Hit rate according to Baseball Savant, shows that he can knock the stuffing out of the ball.
Looking at his batted ball data, what really stands out is Bichette's ability to spray the ball. In his limited at-bats, he led all shortstops in hitting into opposite field, doing so 30.6% of the time. By comparison, studs like Fernando Tatis Jr. and Alex Bregman went the opposite way 21.6% and 18.4% of the time, respectively.
Obviously regression is on the horizon for Bichette in 2020 as his K% was a 23.6% and his BB% was a career-low 6.6% last year; understandable coming up against big league pitching for the first time. Yet, he was still able to put up historic numbers for a rookie. This makes it challenging to project his production for the upcoming season.
The 22-year-old has an incredibly bright future, and if he can get on base, and into scoring position at anywhere close to the same rate as in 2019, he will score lots of runs and provide a ton of RBI opportunities for the other young studs hitting behind him.
2. Cavan Biggio
Another son of a former Major League legend, Biggio will try and build on his impressive 2019 season, hitting in the two-hole for Toronto. He didn’t quite have the pedigree or the hype of Bichette or Guerrero Jr., but he could be just as valuable to the big league squad. What really sets him apart is his eye at the plate.
Before getting promoted to The Show in 2019, the second baseman had a jaw-dropping 1.21 BB/K at Triple-A. At the Major League level, his BB% only dropped slightly; 19.5% to 16.5%, but his strikeout rate skyrocketed from 16.1% to 28.6%. In fact, in 2017 in Class A Advanced he had a 25.2 K%, and in 2018 at Double-A it was 26.3%. Biggio has got to find a way to bring that down.
The reason he is able to get away with the strikeouts, for now, is his aforementioned walk rate. His 16.5 BB% was seventh in all of baseball and allowed the left-handed hitter to have a strong .364 OBP even with a .234 AVG. Oddly enough, he actually hit better against lefties (.237) than against righties (.233).
Part of the reason Biggio’s average underwhelms is because he seemingly tries to put the ball in the air every time he’s at the dish. Even to a casual fan, his swing seems to look like he’s trying to uppercut the ball.
In 2019, he had a 47% flyball rate, yet only had a 3.7% IFFB; in fact, he has never had a FB rate under 41% at any level. In terms of power, 16 HRs was a respectable total over 100 games, including 13 of those dingers coming off fastballs.
Another potential obstacle to Biggio increasing his average is how much he pulls the ball. He pulled the ball 49.4% of the time last season, that’s seventh amongst second basemen with at least 100 PAs, and puts him in really unflattering company.
Due to Biggio's propensity to hit the ball near the first-base line, he faces a defensive shift in 75% of his ABs. Because his strikeout rate is so high, and his groundball rate is relatively low (25.4%), his numbers don’t differ much from when he is not facing the shift.
Even with his aforementioned flaws, Biggio figures to be a big part of the Jays' future for many years to come. It’s already been mentioned how he was seemingly the only base-stealing threat on the Jays last season, and was one of only six MLB players to hit for the cycle in 2019. Clearly, the future is bright for the 25-year-old.
3. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
Out of all the young Blue Jays bats being analyzed here, Gurriel has the largest variance in potential outcomes. Projected to hit in the three-hole, it wouldn’t be surprising if the brother of Astros slugger Yuli Gurriel had a breakout season. Conversely, there’s also the possibility he has another underwhelming, injury-riddled campaign.
Gurriel will start the season hitting in arguably the cushiest spot in the Blue Jays' lineup. He’ll have plenty of opportunities to drive in runs behind Bichette and Biggio. In such a short season, the Cuban native will definitely need to come out the gates faster than last season.
In 2019, Gurriel hit .175 with no HRs and 12 Ks in his first 13 games, earning him a demotion to Triple-A. He was recalled a month later and moved to the outfield, where he’ll be playing in 2020.
After being recalled in late May, he proceeded to swing a red-hot bat throughout June, hitting .337 with a 1.063 OPS, earning him 10 HRs and 20 RBIs in 104 ABs.
Overall, Gurriel has had 563 Major League ABs and looks like a real threat. In 2018, he excelled at hitting fastballs and struggled against breaking balls; in '19, it was the exact opposite. In '18, he hit much better on the road and in night games, whereas in '19 he hit much better at home and had a 1.049 OPS in day games. Clearly Gurriel is a streaky player in terms of both how and when he collects his hits.
No matter how the production comes, if the left fielder can replicate the .327 OBP, .869 OPS, and .264 ISO he contributed last season, the Jays will have an above-average top of the order in 2020.
4. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
All the praise heaped on Bichette for his brief spell in 2019 was thoroughly deserved, however, the Blue Jays will only go as far as Guerrero will take them.
Entering last season, Guerrero ranked 3rd on the MLB Top 100 list and his 1.141 OPS during his 34 Triple-A games certainly showed why. He gave the Jays no choice but to call him up, but ultimately, he didn’t quite deliver on his lofty expectations. He struck out 17.7% of the time, while only swatting 15 HRs.
The 6-foot-2, 250-pound Dominican Republic native will want to show more power in the upcoming season and improve on his .162 ISO, 38.1% Hard Hit rate, and 49.6% groundball rate from 2019.
Even after a disappointing rookie season, no one is doubting that Guerrero is the real deal. Just look at what he did in the Home Run Derby at just 21 years old. His power profile clearly translates to real game action, as his 118.9 MPH EV single was the hardest-hit ball in the Majors last season.
An important note is that a big reason for Guerrero's underwhelming production is because he is already being treated like one of the game’s best by opposing pitchers. Only seven qualifying hitters saw a fewer percent of pitches in the zone in 2019, (37.8%). Out of the All-Stars ahead of him, Vlad had the highest zone contact rate at 87.2%. If all of the Jays' young players can take an expected step forward in 2020, Guerrero should see a lot more pitches in the zone and therefore see all his batting numbers and peripherals shoot up.
It would be a surprise if this highly touted prospect didn’t take a big step forward in 2020, unfortunately, he’ll only have 60 games to show what he’s truly capable of.
7. Teoscar Hernandez
At 27 years old, Hernandez is almost at the “he is what he is” moment of his career, and what he is definitely isn’t going to set the world on fire.
His OBP the last four seasons between Houston and Toronto have been, .304, .305, .302, .306, respectively. Granted, he only played a combined 68 games his first two seasons, but the lack of improvement is cause for concern regardless. His low OBP is a direct result of his high strikeout rate. In his two seasons as a full-time starter, he struck out 32.1% of the time.
While his power is an asset for the team, it isn’t enough to make up for his deficiencies in batting average. Maybe by hitting in the seven spot with improved talent around him, he will feel less pressure and have his best season yet, but that’s no guarantee.
Last season, the Dominican Republic native hit in literally every spot in the lineup. He registered the most ABs (101) hitting fifth, where he hit a woeful .188, and struck out 34.9% of the time. In high leverage situations, he was almost a liability, posting a .264 OBP and 39.6K%. Hopefully, moving him down two spots should reduce those high leverage plays and leave it to someone more adept at putting the ball in play.
Based on the analytics, Hernandez should be more productive. Baseball Savant places him in the top 94th percentile in sprint speed, yet he only amassed six stolen bases last season and was caught stealing three times.
Last season’s .778 OPS was respectable, but imagine if Hernandez had even league average plate discipline. Last season he hit .178 on breaking balls, striking out a staggering 60 times in 152 ABs.
If Hernandez can improve slightly, it would be a huge bonus for this ascending Jays lineup, but he hardly has the All-Star breakout potential of the other Jays up-and-comers.
9. Danny Jansen / Reese McGuire
The Blue Jays are simply going to need more from their catchers in 2020. Luke Maile and his tragic .151/.205/.235 slash line are gone after playing 44 games last season. Now the load will fall squarely on the capable shoulders of the tandem of Jansen and McGuire.
Earlier in the year, Jays manager Charlie Montoyo indicated that it would be about a 60/40 split in playing time in favor of Jansen.
Back when Jansen was promoted to the big leagues in 2018, many fantasy owners rushed to the waiver wire to pick him up. There was a lot of hype surrounding the fifth-best catching prospect entering the season. He was solid in 31 games, showing his trademark good eye at the plate (.247/.347/.432).
Then, instead of turning into one of the league’s top tier catchers as some predicted, he regressed across the board in 2019 (207/.279/.360.) It seemed like Jansen was selling out for power a little bit too much. According to Fangraphs, his Hard Hit rate jumped from 20% to 42.6% (12th amongst catchers.) However, as a result, he struck out more and walked less than in his small sample size in '18. His zone swing %, chase %, and first pitch swing rate all went up, while his zone contact rate declined.
Blue Jays fans will be hoping that Jansen was just unlucky -- the stats do support that theory to a degree. Between 2018 and '19, his xBA went from .230 to .242, and his xSLG increased slightly from .407 to .413.
Jansen hit only .199 against righties last season; if McGuire can take some of those ABs and have Jansen punish lefties a bit more, his overall numbers should improve.
Speaking of McGuire, don’t sleep on the impact that he could have in this lineup. The lefty isn’t a household name, but he certainly has an elite pedigree. He was drafted 14th overall by the Pirates in 2013, then after taking a few years to develop, he was listed as the sixth-best catching prospect in the Majors heading into '17. He blossomed last season, hitting an impressive .299/.346/.526 in 105 PA, posting a .316 AVG against righties.
It will be a major boost for the Blue Jays if McGuire can repeat his form from last season. Couple that with an improved Jansen and the Blue Jays can make some noise in this upcoming shortened season.
Baseball Prospectus currently gives the Toronto Blue Jays a mere 10.3% chance to make the playoffs. However, if all these young stars can start to flash their future All-Star potential, combined with a bit of luck, they may just make that division more exciting than people think.
