Henry Ruggs III - Fantasy Football Rookie Spotlight

May 4, 2020

Phil Clark's 2020 fantasy football value analysis of Raiders rookie wide receiver Henry Ruggs III. Is he a 2020 fantasy football draft sleeper and WR target?

The enormous level of excitement that exists surrounding members of each year's rookie class has become an annual occurrence for the fantasy community. This frenzy for first-year players also intensifies as each NFL Draft approaches, then continues through the draft process. This enthusiasm rises even higher as owners anticipate the opportunity to secure these rookies for their own rosters.

The tremendous degree of interest in this season's newcomers has been no exception. That is why the team at RotoBaller is assembling a collection of fantasy football rookie profiles that will provide you with analysis and data for the most promising first-year players. This will help you determine which rookies should be targeted during your draft process, and which players are less worthy of consideration as components for your rosters.

This year's rookie class includes a collection of wide receivers that will be forced to overcome the challenges of an unusual offseason. This scenario will impact Henry Ruggs III, who was the first receiver to be selected in the NFL Draft and is currently 10th in our latest rookie rankings. His potential to provide owners with a productive resource during 2020 and beyond will be examined in this profile.

Profile

Team: Las Vegas Raiders
College: Alabama
Height/Weight: 5’ 11”, 190 lb
2020 NFL Draft: Round 1, Pick 12

Exceptional Speed On Display

Ruggs was a high-profile recruit before his arrival at Tuscaloosa in 2017, after operating as a wide receiver, running back, quarterback, and returner at Lee High School in nearby Montgomery. He manufactured 229 yards on 12 receptions as a freshman, while being deployed primarily as a weapon on kickoff and punt returns. His role expanded in 2018, as Ruggs captured 46 of his 62 targets, including 13 receptions of 20+ yards. Ruggs also assembled 741 yards, while his 11 touchdowns tied him for second in the SEC.

Ruggs returned in 2019 to lead Alabama in yards per reception (18.6) while finishing third behind former teammates Jerry Jeudy and Devonta Smith in receptions (40) and receiving yards (748). He also generated seven touchdowns during his final season with the Crimson Tide, while accruing 75 yards on the ground. Ruggs also eclipsed 100 yards in two contests, and almost accomplished it a third time (99) during the regular-season finale against Auburn.

Ruggs’ elite speed was displayed frequently while he performed at Alabama, then was punctuated by his blazing 4.27 in the 40-yard dash during the NFL Scouting Combine. Since the electronic timing of the event began in 1999, 18 different participants have completed the 40 in 4.30 or less. Eleven of them were offensive players, including nine wide receivers. This collection of speedsters is listed below, along with their ultimate landing spots during the NFL Drafts.

Underrated Versatility

The question of whether Las Vegas should have eschewed seizing CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy when they were both available in Round 1 requires a lengthy answer in another column. But Ruggs should surpass the expectations of many observers who are not enamored with his potential for statistical success.

The 5’ 11", 190-pound Ruggs possesses other appealing attributes that progress beyond his well-chronicled explosiveness. These capabilities also separate him from other players that have registered times of 4.3 or under during previous combines - like Ross and Goodwin.

Ruggs is also a smooth route runner who possesses dependable hands and considerable toughness. All of which supply encouraging elements to blend with his unquestioned speed. His production in major receiving categories was constrained during his collegiate career due to Alabama’s luxury of combining his usage with Jeudy, Smith, and Jaylen Waddle, as Ruggs exceeded four receptions in just five different contests.

Ruggs also failed to surpass a 14% target share during his three seasons with the Crimson Tide. But the same elite skill and game-breaking speed that compelled Las Vegas’ Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock to select him with the 12^th overall pick has now placed him in position to capture an expanded target share as an integral component with the Raiders.

That could accelerate Ruggs’ development into a valuable fantasy asset if various factors align favorably for him within his new environment. But the dynamics that will emerge as Las Vegas overhauls its passing attack will play a massive role in determining whether Ruggs ignites as a proficient starter at the professional level.

Concerns With Carr 

The Raiders ranked 25^th in pass play percentage during 2019 (55.8%), while they were 21^st in attempts per game (32.7). But there was also an assortment of generally favorable numbers for Derek Carr, although they were interspersed with results that can be concerning for anyone who is considering an investment in Ruggs.

Carr established new career bests in completion percentage (70.4%), and yards per attempt (7.9). He has now completed 69.7% of his passes and averaged 7.6 yards per attempt in two seasons with Gruden after Carr connected on just 61.4% of his throws and averaged 6.6 yards per attempt from 2014-2017. He also eclipsed 4,000 yards for a second consecutive season (4,054) after failing to reach that total during any of the previous four years.

However, his 40/18 touchdown to interception ratio since 2018 is uninspiring, while he also ranked 30th in intended air yards per attempt (6.6). Carr’s reluctance to unleash downfield throws with any consistency has also been apparent even though that does not equate to an issue with arm strength. Most Raider fans are acutely aware that he has increasingly killed plays and subsequent drives by prematurely bailing on opportunities to extend them - even when his offensive line has created a sparkling clean pocket. His 10 completions of 40+ yards tied his career-best total. But after surpassing 300 yards in 10 different games during 2015-2016, Carr has achieved that number just eight times during the past three seasons.

If Carr is unable or unwilling to fully capitalize on Ruggs’ home run potential as a vertical presence, he can still generate success by connecting on high percentage routes with the Raiders' first-round selection. That delivers the possibility of a huge gain whenever Ruggs is schematically placed in space. However, if Carr does not take advantage of Ruggs' explosiveness in any capacity on a consistent basis, Gruden will eventually install five-year veteran Marcus Mariota as the team’s starting signal-caller.

Competition For Targets

The Raiders arrived in Las Vegas with an unquestioned need to infuse a sizable level of talent into their wide receiving weaponry. Thirty teams targeted their wide receivers more extensively than the Raiders in 2019, as the 43% target share to the position was a mere 0.01% above Philadelphia’s league-worst percentage. This was a byproduct of Gruden’s 2019 plan to construct the team’s passing attack with Antonio Brown as its foundation. However, that was circumvented on the eve of Week 1 due to the unique pattern of behavior that was displayed by the former Steeler.

But Gruden and Mayock have designed an expedited transformation of the Raiders’ offense, which suddenly presents opposing defenses with an assortment of matchup dilemmas. Ruggs was the first of three draft sections that were deployed by Las Vegas in an attempt to simulate the unrelenting offensive assault that Andy Reid has concocted for Kansas City’s high-powered offense.

Lynn Bowden accrued 1,530 yards as a rusher, 1,303 yards as a receiver, and 1,827 yards as a returner at Kentucky, while also functioning as the Wildcats’ signal-caller during 2019. He supplies the versatility to be utilized in several capacities, which provided Gruden’s motivation to secure him. Bryan Edwards was chosen immediately after Bowden. But he could eventually produce numbers that easily exceed the investment of an 81^st overall pick. He also has the size (6’3”), speed, and sufficient versatility to allow for usage in an assortment of routes.

Bowden and Edwards will join Ruggs to form a trio of former SEC receivers that can now be unleashed in coordination with tight end Darren Waller (117 targets/90 receptions/1,145 yards), Hunter Renfrow, and Tyrell Williams. This presents Gruden with the prospects of engulfing opposing defensive units with more receiving weapons that can be accounted for.

Williams was elevated into a WR1 role that did not fit his capabilities immediately following the debacle with Brown. A prolonged case of plantar fasciitis also hampered his output, as Williams averaged just 4.0 targets, 2.5 receptions, and 43.5 yards per game from Weeks 5-17. Renfrow ultimately became the team’s most effective wide receiver, while averaging 6.8 targets, 5.2 receptions and 67 yards per game from Weeks 9-17.

That propelled Renfrow to seventh among rookie receivers in receptions (49) and receiving yards (605) despite missing three contests (ribs). Renfrow’s ongoing role might lack the consistency that would have existed prior to the selection of three wide receivers. But he still presents potential owners with a late-round draft option as the Raiders' weapon from the slot. It is premature to believe that a healthy Williams has been escorted to the threshold of irrelevance. He should begin the season as a starter on the perimeter, even though Edwards will also make contributions during his first season.

Ruggs’ Outlook

Ruggs will join all rookies in contending with a condensed offseason that will not include the usual degree of team activities. This can be particularly impactful for wide receivers. However, his speed and undervalued attributes can still be advantageous toward developing into big plays.

Some receivers who have been drafted early due to their exceptional speed have not possessed other strengths that solidified their chances of succeeding at the NFL level. But Ruggs does not reside in the same category as those players, even though the Raiders will utilize his speed to clear space for the team's other weaponry.

Ruggs also has flexibility as a route-runner, which elevates the potential for usage in short and intermediate routes. Gruden can build a cluster of plays that place the ball in Ruggs' 10 1/8" hands, by deploying him in various locations - including the backfield. This jet sweep underscores why any evaluation of Ruggs' capabilities should not be limited to envisioning deep patterns that are dependent upon Carr‘s willingness to launch the ball downfield.

Ruggs will also benefit from his competitive nature, which will boost his chances of attaining continual improvement this season and beyond. Josh Jacobs will still accumulate a significant workload in the backfield. Waller and Renfrow will remain highly involved despite other modifications in the overall strategic approach. Edwards and Bowden will also make contributions on an increasing basis as the year progresses.

However, the Raiders invested the 12th overall selection on Ruggs in order to take advantage of his potential to be a difference-maker. That will keep him actively involved in the offense. It also makes him a viable option near the end of Round 1 in Dynasty rookie drafts, who is also worthy of a ninth-round selection in Best Ball and redraft leagues.

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