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Eric Samulski look at five sleeper first basemen who represent excellent value at their current ADP. Consider any of these names later on in drafts when eyeing potential upside bats.
First base has historically been a deep position in fantasy baseball. However, in recent years, we've seen it become a lot more top-heavy with only five to seven players giving us a warm and fuzzy feeling if we're able to draft them as our starting first baseman. That's why it's even more important this year to find value at the position, and I believe there is value to be had.
Some of the players below are late(r) picks that I believe can put up strong numbers in your 1B slot, but there are a couple of names on this list that I also think will provide CI value while also giving you a solid back-up at 1B should you need to.
The ADP numbers used are from March 1st to March 16th using Online Championship data on NFBC. My rankings are for standard 5x5 formats.
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Josh Bell (ADP: 99, Eric's 1B rank: 8)
Not that you need another reason to draft Josh Bell, but you found it here. Bell's barrel% jumped 5.7% in his age-27 season, along with a 3.8-degree increase in launch angle (to 13 degrees), a .136 increase in xSLG, a .077 increase in xwoBACON, and an 8.1% increase in Hard Hit %. His Statcast profile was elite almost all the way across the board, while he still managed to keep his K% under 20%, which was better than the MLB average.
Perhaps more interestingly from a power standpoint, his Pull% improved by just under 9% and his FB% increased five-percent at the expense of his GB%. All this helped contribute to a career-high 37 home runs. While the upper 30s may be tough for him to duplicate given his 23.9% HR/FB, Bell seems to have cemented himself as a 30-HR threat. His RBI totals will likely be suppressed in a bad lineup, but 30 home runs, 85 runs, and 90 RBI seems feasible, to go along with a .270 average.
Bell will likely only chip in one or two stolen bases; however, he's is a good value in drafts for your 1B slot at 99th overall. A player with that profile has an rbEDV in the early 80s since he'll trade away some speed for a better average.
Rhys Hoskins (ADP: 115, Eric's 1B rank: 9)
Rhys Hoskins had a rough 2019 but not as bad as most people are making it out to be. Yes, his .226 average wasn't good, and hitting five fewer home runs is never something we can get excited about. However, there are still some strong indicators of a bounceback if you look under the surface.
Perhaps most crucially, Hoskins' elite batting eye is still there. His K% jumped to 24.5% but his BB% also increased to 16.5%, which indicates he was being too patient. However, a 16.5 BB% is elite and tremendously important for a slugger because it shows he can work the count into a favorable situation where he can get pitches he can drive.
The issue is that his swing mechanics led to an increase in launch angle to 24 degrees, which was way too high and caused a 15.3% infield fly ball rate. In fact, his increasing launch angle over the last three years has been directly connected to a decline in his overall production (left).
However, Hoskins' exit velocity was strong last year, coming in at 89.7 mph, which was up from 2019. He's also, obviously, taken note of his flaws and spent the off-season re-working his swing to try and cut down on the exaggerated launch angle. With his strong exit velocity, impressive patience, and a spot in the middle of a strong lineup, I believe that Hoskins could be in for a strong season if he can adjust his launch angle back to 2017 and 1028 levels. You could be looking at a .245 average with 35 HR, 90 RBI, 90 Runs and a solid OBP. I'll take that as my starting 1B at his ADP, which will allow me to load up on other positions first or take some of the really intriguing SPs that have been rising to an ADP of 100.
Luke Voit (ADP: 189, Eric's 1B rank: 15)
Luke Voit was two entirely different players before and after the injury last year. Before he hit the IL with a sports hernia in late July, he had hit 19 homers with a .278/.392/.493 line in 94 games. After he returned, he hit .200/.319/.338, and finished the season with a statline of .263/.378/.464, with 21 home runs in 118 games.
Considering his strong close to the 2018 season, there is no reason to suspect that Voit's first 94 games of 2019 were a fluke. His metrics support the beginning of the season, which would have put him on pace for over 30 home runs and a solid batting average, plus good counting stats in a strong lineup. His 13,2% barrel rate last year was in the top 9% in the league and his BB% jumped from 10.6% to 13.9% which is crucial for a player who was entering his first full season as a starter. It's an indication that Voit was getting more comfortable the more at-bats he had.
Looking at Statcast's suggestion of hitters similar to Voit, based on his contact metrics, hints at his possible upside. Harper and Suarez were both top four-round picks last year, and Muncy has consistently delivered top-75 value since becoming a full-time player. Yet, because of a hernia injury, you can get Voit near pick 200. The Yankees lineup needs him now more than ever with injuries to Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, so expect the see Voit's name on the lineup card in 140 games or more. His consistent presence in the lineup will lead to 30 home runs and at least 80 runs and RBIs with a talented core around him. Voit is probably the lowest-ranked 1B I have that I'm comfortable starting at 1B and not CI. In fact, I got him as my 1B in TGFBI and it allowed me to created a stacked (in my opinion) lineup around him.
C.J. Cron (ADP: 227, Eric's 1B rank: 16)
When talking about Josh Bell, I mentioned that there were some late-round flyers at first base that were super interesting. Here is one of them. Cron has battled through a few thumb injuries in recent seasons and has mostly been a platoon player on teams like Tampa Bay and Minnesota, so he flies under the radar for many owners. Now he's locked into full-time plate appearances but still on a team that not many fans truly think about often.
However, Cron is worth your brainpower. He's increased his barrel rate for three-straight seasons and hit 25 home runs last year despite the thumb injuries. His xWOBACON is well above average, and he continues to hit the ball incredibly hard with an average exit velocity of 91 mph, which ranked 41st in all of baseball, and a max exit velocity of 115 that ranked 15th. He also seems to be gaining a better sense of the strike zone as his chase rate has dropped for five-straight seasons, down to 32.4%, and his strikeout rate dropped from 25.9% to 21.6% in 2019. This has led to him seeing better pitches and making better quality contact, as evidenced by his 53 barrels, which were 16th in all of baseball.
To pick it plainly, you're not going to find many players with 30+ home run upside with a solid batting average and 500 plate appearances available after pick around pick 230.
Justin Smoak (ADP: 364, Eric's 1B rank: 25)
Smoak's ADP is trending downward, and I'm honestly shocked by that. Yes, Ryan Braun is going to see some playing time at first base against left-handers, but he's also going to need to see playing time in the outfield since Avisail Garcia has only played more than 105 games in the field twice in his entire career and Lorenzo Cain is coming off multiple lower-body injuries that sapped his speed and usefulness.
Even if he gets starts primarily against right-handed pitchers, Smoak could push 500 at-bats in the middle of a solid lineup in a hitter's park. While 2019 wasn't a great year for him, I think we can expect stats closer to 2018 where he went .242/.350/.457 with 25 home runs, 77 RBI and 67 runs in 147 games. Last year, Smoak had an xBA of .250 and a BABIP of .223 despite reaching .285 or better each of the last three years. His BB% continues to grow, rising to 15.8% and giving him a K%-BB% of 5.4%, which is astronomically low for a player with his power.
Make no mistake, Smoak still has power. His average exit velocity of 90.3 was good for 68th in the league, his Sweet Spot% went up to 37.5% and he's always had strong barrel rates (left).
If his batting average regresses to his career norms, in particular after his resurgence in 2017, there is no reason not to expect Smoak to be a valuable fantasy commodity in Miller Park. If you're in a league with weekly lineup-locks his platoon status might be tricky, but I expect him to play in four or five games out of every seven, which means he should still see enough playing time to be a tremendous value this late in drafts. If you're in a daily moves league or a bi-weekly lock league and can play the matchups more carefully, Smoak could be a great late-round pick for the CI spot.
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