Fantasy Deep Dive Week 4: Dennis Schroder

RotoBaller's Justin Carter looks at film from Oklahoma City point guard Dennis Schroder to look at why he is a fantasy basketball riser early in the 2018-2019 NBA season.

I'll admit to being one of the people who were skeptical about Dennis Schroder signing with Oklahoma City. For a still-young point guard, backing up Russell Westbrook isn't the ideal scenario to find yourself in.

But with Westbrook missing some time -- and even with Westbrook back in the lineup -- Schroder has found a little something for the Thunder this year, and he's averaging 16.5 points in 29.2 minutes per game this season.

Let's take a deep dive on Schroder and see what his recent play suggests about his fantasy value moving forward.

Dennis Schroder: Deep Dive

Some Background Information

First, let's talk about the Russell Westbrook and Dennis Schroder pairing. So far, the two sport a negative net rating in 11.3 minutes per game sharing the floor, because...well, because of course they do. We're seeing the same thing manifest itself around the NBA, which is that having two ball-handlers on the court at once brings so many dimensions to the floor, but if both of those ball-handlers are shooting below 30 percent from three then defenses know how to play off of those players to maximize the defensive opportunities. But worse than that is how the duo looks on the defensive end, where the team has a 109.6 defensive rating in those minutes. What this all says to me is that everything positive I'm going to say below should be taken with a grain of salt, because there's always the chance Billy Donovan reduces minutes and doesn't put the two together in the backcourt if that trend continues.

Alright, that's my downer talk for the day! Let's talk good things about Dennis Schroder!

Yes, he's not the most effective three-point shooter, but his percentages are about where they were last year when he was the starting point guard in Atlanta. He's taking fewer shots, so his scoring average has dropped from 19.4 to 16.5, and playing with Westbrook has dropped his assists from 6.2 to 5.0, but he's also rebounding the ball more this year as well.

Looking into some of Schroder's shooting stats, it's clear that there's a lot of early season noise influencing things. Did you know that he's shooting better the closer a defender is to him? That's definitely a weird and unsustainable trend for the most part, though it's partially influenced by him clunking some open threes. I'd still expect that to even out more at some point.

Game Tape

Let's examine some plays by Schroder, broken down into two separate categories: Schroder as the primary ball-handler, and Schroder playing off of Russell Westbrook.

Schroder as Point Guard

First, let's look at three plays where Dennis Schroder served as his team's primary ball-handler.

Just a pretty simple play here, with Paul George setting the pick on the elbow and Schroder coming around the pick and driving to the baseline. One thing I noticed a lot of when watching Schroder is that he really likes to get to the baseline, which is great if you're a fantasy owner who is contemplating his value, because it shows a tendency to drive the ball inside and get shots from one of the most efficient areas of the floor. And for as much as people have forgotten about Schroder's promise as he languished away in Atlanta, he's still a quick, young guard, and when he gets a head of steam moving to the basket, he should be able to get to a solid position for his shot attempt.

Another play similar to the one before. Schroder starts off out on the right wing and dribbles towards the corner. He gets another pick, and this time he circles around the pick and gets into the paint near the top of the key, where he's able to get the runner off. When he first entered the league, Schroder was described by DraftExpress as having a "lighting fast first step" and for being proficient in pick-and-rolls. Both of those things seem to still be on display now for Schroder.

One final shot from Schroder on a play where he starts with the ball in his hand. There's no pick here to free up Schroder, who brings the ball up the court and identifies right away that there's a mismatch here -- I love Julius Randle, but if you have a quick point guard like Schroder and Randle is the only player in a position to guard him, you take advantage of that speed and drive the ball inside. He does. Randle's size means that he's not able to end up getting a perfect shot, because I think there's a good chance he blocks a layup attempt, but Schroder does a good job getting the off-balance floater up.

Schroder Beside Westbrook

How about when Schroder plays off of Westbrook? I mentioned that the team has a negative net rating when the two share the floor, but the offensive rating only drops a little bit. Let's see what kinds of plays the team makes on that end they're together.

Okay, technically it's Paul George handling the ball here, but I'm counting it because Westbrook is on the floor and Schroder is being used out on the wing, away from the ball. Schroder is wide open when the ball gets to him, because the Wizards don't really think guarding him out on the perimeter is as important as hedging against Adams and George inside, which makes sense because he's hitting just 30.6 percent on wide open shots outside of 10 feet. But defensively, the Wizards decide to not let him take that shot, with the defender aggressively closing out on Schroder, who uses the shot fake to create some space to drive inside for another floater.

To make a cross-sport analogy here, which are things I really don't like usually, Schroder passes in front of Westbrook like he's running a sweep play in the backfield, with that brief pause by Schroder functioning like a little play action. You can also see on this play how much defenses respect what Westbrook can do, as both defenders here are keeping their eyes on him. Even when Schroder gets the ball, a little pass fake back to Westbrook is highly effective at giving him just enough space to take advantage of his speed and drive inside.

One last play here, which is Schroder taking one of those dreaded threes. Even though he's under 30 percent from the field, he HAS to take these shots when sharing the floor with Westbrook to keep defenses from just totally collapsing inside and cutting off paths to the basket. Westbrook is in transition here and the Hornets crowd the paint, leaving Schroder wide open out on the wing for a shot he takes without hesitation. Keep doing that, and defenses won't be able to let you stay out there like that, which opens up more chances for Westbrook to get to the hoop. Schroder is actually shooting threes well in the games that Westbrook has played, so this combination could work really well if that keeps up.

The Fantasy Impact

So, what does this all mean for Schroder from a fantasy point-of-view?

First of all, there's enough Russell Westbrook in the way he plays -- fast, good passer, can rebound well for his position -- that makes Schroder close to a must play option (especially considering his lower cost in DFS contests) when Westbrook sits. If Dennis Schroder is leading the offense, he should probably be leading your fantasy team as well.

The bigger question is how you value Schroder with Westbrook in the lineup. In the seven games this year where Schroder came off the bench, he's averaging 15.7 points per game with 5.1 assists and 3.6 rebounds. The rebounds are down with Westbrook in the lineup because...I mean, you know why #TripleDoubles...but he's still scoring the ball well and, for the most part, making the right passes. I can understand there being some worry about "okay, will Schroder actually be good once Westbrook is at 100 percent" and while I share some of those concerns, his numbers suggest that yeah, he's probably going to be fine. He's working well in the context of what this offense does, is getting his shots at and near the rim, and is generally playing good basketball.

Baller Move: I don't think you need to go out of your way to pick up Dennis Schroder at this point, but if you currently have him, don't panic about anything if he has a bad game or two once Westbrook is back again. Schroder could end up in the Sixth Man of the Year discussion with how he's been playing, especially if the 37.5 percent mark from three during the games where Westbrook was back is indicative of some further development from his long range game and not just some statistical noise.

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