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Unless an owner commits heavy draft capital into a tight end, we’re usually left scrambling for someone towards the end of the draft. This season is no different, with hype trains surrounding late round tight ends like Trey Burton, Tyler Eifert, and David Njoku. One player, sandwiched in the middle of those aforementioned tight ends, is George Kittle of the San Francisco 49ers. Kittle has been receiving his fair share of hype this preseason and is currently going at pick 11.01 in standard 12 team drafts. For the most part, his ADP has been in a steady climb.
His draft cost has dropped a bit after Kittle suffered a shoulder separation in the 49ers’ first preseason game, but he is still being drafted as a starting tight end. Not only is he being considered a starting tight end, there is buzz around him as a breakout. He’s about to spend his first full season with Jimmy Garoppolo, so it’s easy to see where this sentiment comes from, however, there isn’t much with Kittle that suggests breakout potential within him. The 49ers are getting a massive upgrade at quarterback with Garoppolo under center for the whole year, but that doesn’t say much when previous options included Brian Hoyer, Blaine Gabbert, and C.J. Beathard. In addition to Garoppolo the 49ers’ offense is on the upswing with Kyle Shanahan entering his second season as head coach and the signing of Jerick McKinnon, but the Kittle hype is misplaced 49ers hype. It’s a way to try and get in on the offense for the sake of having a piece of the Niners, and that doesn't automatically mean fantasy success.
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The Shanahan Offense: Tight End Poison
The appeal of Kyle Shanahan as a coach was his renowned offensive scheme, one that led to a historic rookie season from Robert Griffin III and later helped the Atlanta Falcons reach the Super Bowl. Shanahan has free reign to run his offense how he likes in San Francisco, and that has typically been bad for tight ends. Only four times in 10 seasons as either an offensive coordinator or head coach has a tight end had more than 600 yards receiving. Four out of 10 isn’t too bad, right? Well, it’s only happened once since 2013, which was Jacob Tamme in 2015 with 657 yards and one touchdown. It has taken Pro-Bowl talent in Chris Cooley and Jordan Reed for any decent production out of tight ends from a Shanahan offense.
Let’s consider how Shanahan’s offense is structured. It’s a West Coast passing style combined with a zone blocking scheme. Zone blocking relies on quickness and agility over size and strength from blockers, and tight ends traditionally play blocking heavy roles in zone blocking schemes. Kittle played his college football at Iowa under Kirk Ferentz, who is also well known for using a zone blocking scheme. Kittle never had more than 22 catches or 314 receiving yards at Iowa. Veteran tight end Garrett Celek has proven to be an effective blocker throughout his career and may get snap count priority because of that. Celek played 258 snaps during the five-game win streak, while Kittle played 171.
A West Coast offense can be favorable to tight ends, but last season 49ers tight ends only received 16.5% of the target share, with most of it going to receivers and running backs. Running backs received 27.7% of the target share while receivers got the remaining 55.7%. Shanahan has favored using his running backs in the passing game. Carlos Hyde got 88 targets last season after having 64 total in his first three seasons. Shanahan made Devonta Freeman a superstar in Atlanta and was able to sustain two productive backs in Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Shanahan can turn an offense into a fantasy gold mine, but not for tight ends.
Just How Good is Kittle Anyway?
The perception seems to be that Kittle finished big with Garoppolo and the rest of the 49ers during their five-game win streak to close the season. That wasn’t exactly the case. He averaged 5.68 points in standard scoring over the last five weeks of the season. That is an improvement over the 3.51 points he averaged in the first 10 games, but a 40% increase in production may just be the result of benching C.J. Beathard. It was at least a big factor in his ability to score. Furthermore, his production was not only heavily dependent on two games, but on two plays. He caught an eight-yard touchdown against the Jaguars and had a 44-yard reception on a busted coverage against the Rams.
Boiling down Kittle’s production and fantasy value to two plays is an inherently reductive exercise. More goes into a touchdown reception or 44-yard catch than merely the act of catching and running, however, it’s one that shows us how tenuous his value was over that five-game stretch. Many low ranked tight ends follow a similar scoring pattern. It’s one play or bust in any given week. But that is why they are low ranked tight ends, they don’t get the targets nor the offensive priority on a regular basis. What separates Kittle from that pack? He never got more than six targets in a game with Garoppolo and never had more than five receptions. His snap count dropped as the season went on as well, having played no more than 56% of the snaps over the last seven weeks, averaging a 41.89% snap count during that stretch.
Bottom line with Kittle is that he doesn’t seem to have much upside. He was the 20th ranked tight end in half-point PPR leagues last season there doesn’t seem to be enough volume here for him to grow. He’ll most likely wind up as a streaming tight end in standard leagues, cycling on and off rosters based on the matchup. The shoulder separation will probably cause Kittle’s ADP to drop even farther. Kittle is questionable for week one, and even if he does play it might be at less than 100%. Drafting Kittle forces an owner to draft two tight ends, which is not normally optimal roster construction. Because of that, he is hardly worth selecting in a 10 or 12 team leagues right now, at least not at his current round 11 cost.
