Justin Bales gives his DraftKings MMA DFS lineup picks for the UFC 221 Main Card. Get a head start on your UFC DFS lineups for DraftKings.

What's up RotoBallers. In this column, I will be taking a look at the main card for UFC 221. My analysis will help you with your DraftKings MMA lineups. I will be keeping track based on picking winners and losers, starting fresh for 2018. I will also predict how the fight will be finished, but that will not reflect in the records (Justin's 2018 Record: 7-5).

MMA has one of the best sweats in DFS. Two fighters compete at a time with only one coming out as the winner. It's the best feeling in the world when you are watching the main event of a show and know you need a first round knockout to win the entire tournament. And nothing feels worse than when you need a first round knockout by Stipe Miocic to win thousands of dollars in a tournament, but when he lands that knockout punch, you realize that you placed 14th because Jacare Souza was too dominant in a previous fight. This was a serious scenario that I had to live through when Miocic won the Heavyweight Championship. Without anymore waiting, here are my DFS lineup picks and DraftKings analysis for the main card at UFC 221.

Editor's Note: Interested in RotoBaller's MMA DFS Cheat Sheet with advanced fighter statistics, deep analysis and detailed insights from MMA DFS Expert Justin Bales? Let us know here.

Tyson Pedro vs Saparbek Safarov

It seems as if I underestimate Pedro every time he steps into the octagon. He is 2-1 in the UFC, losing only to Ilir Latifi, who is far from a slouch in his own right. Pedro gets a matchup against Safarov, who lost his only fight in the UFC. I was at that fight live, and it seemed as if Safarov was injured somewhat early in the fight, but continued pushing on a serious leg injury. Both men are finishers, combining for eight career KO/TKO and six submission wins. Neither fighter has ever won a decision. Pedro is more of a precise striker, while Safarov is the more active fighter. I feel Pedro is the better striker, specifically because of his defense compared to Safarov. I also give Pedro the grappling advantage. While I often underestimate Pedro, that will not be the case this week, as I feel he will have the advantage nearly everywhere in this fight.

Tyson Pedro, Submission, 1st Round

Jake Matthews vs Li Jingliang

Matthews looked like a highly touted prospect in the lightweight division early in his career. Unfortunately, he hit a few snags in his UFC career, ultimately making the switch to welterweight. He won a split decision in his welterweight debut, showing promise and struggles against Bojan Velickovic. Jingliang is an entirely different monster than Velickovic, as he enters this fight with a 6-2 UFC record, including four KO/TKO wins. Matthews is young and putting on muscle, but he simply is not quite as big as someone like Jingliang. Matthews did get a taste of fighting a bigger opponent against Velickovic, but Jingliang is a step up in competition. Matthews has a slight grappling advantage, while Jingliang is the superior striker. Jingliang is more active, features better defense, and comes with more power. I anticipate Jingliang to be too strong for Matthews to simply hold him down. If this fight takes place on the feet, Jingliang will have a distinct advantage.

Li Jingliang, TKO, 2nd Round

Tai Tuivasa vs Cyril Asker

This fight is a bit of a mismatch. Tuivasa is a new face in the heavyweight decision, and he made a statement with a highlight reel knockout in his UFC debut. He was then gifted Cyril Asker as an opponent in his home country. Asker is coming off a win, but it was against Yaozong Hu, who certainly is not a UFC talent. There are plenty of people that believe Asker is a borderline UFC talent, as well. I don’t feel Asker will be able to get Tuivasa to the ground, and if this stays standing, we should see another highlight reel knockout. It should be fun while it lasts, but there is no real reason to bet against Tuivasa at this point.

Tai Tuivasa, TKO, 1st Round

Mark Hunt vs Curtis Blaydes

This is going to be an amazing fight, as it sets the level Blaydes is on. Hunt is not going to fight for the title anytime soon, but he is essentially the gatekeeper of an “elite” level. He is consistently given fighters trying to break into the title picture, either losing to future title contenders or stopping their momentum dead. Hunt has been fighting elite competition for quite some time, and he still features brutal knockout power. Blaydes has been a dominant fighter throughout his career, losing to only Francis Ngannou in his UFC debut. He loves working for takedowns, and while his takedown defense is worrisome, Hunt is not a fighter that likes turning fights into grappling matches. The main reason I’m confident in Blaydes this weekend is his chin. He went two rounds with Ngannou, losing only after the doctors stopped the fight because of swelling around his eyes. Hunt’s best attribute is his power, but I do not believe he will be able to cleanly KO Blaydes if Ngannou was not able to.

Curtis Blaydes, TKO, 2nd Round

Yoel Romero vs Luke Rockhold

This is likely the most difficult fight on the card to pick. Romero is an elite wrestler, who uses quick bursts to develop power when his opponents are not expecting it. Rockhold isn’t an elite wrestler, but comes with tremendous grappling and submission potential. He is also an active striker, who comes with diverse and powerful strikes. Romero is such a big and muscular fighter that he tends to struggle with cardio, while Rockhold has no problems going deep into fights. Rockhold has won multiple fights in the championship round, while Romero has only gone five rounds once, losing to Robert Whittaker. It’s far from a bad loss, but if Rockhold can avoid Romero’s power early on, he should become a larger and larger favorite. I expect Romero to tire at some point in this fight, causing him to rely more and more on his wrestling. At some point, he is likely to make an exhaustion mistake, opening the door for Rockhold to lock in one of his tricky submissions.

Luke Rockhold, Submission, 4th Round