RADIO
Welcome back to this investigative piece where we examine players who have seen some notable changes in their power profiles -- for better or for worse -- in 2017.
As usual, you don’t need me to tell you that Miguel Sano or Aaron Judge are strong or that Jarrod Dyson and Billy Hamilton are toward the bottom in average exit velocity. And as with every April analysis article, the standard “it’s really early so read with heaping grains of salt” note applies…but May is almost here and some reaction is warranted.
Let's get to it.
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Power Risers
Scott Schebler (OF - CIN):
Schebler may not be able to hit lefties worth a darn still, but the guy has seven homers through just 21 games (82 plate appearances) and has a solid Minor League track record for power. He blasted 27 and 28 homers in High-A and Double-A between 2013 and 2014, respectively, for the Dodgers’ farm system. He plays in a solid hitter’s park and will see his current .170 BABIP rise toward his .312 mark from last season as his HR/FB rate likely regresses to at least 20 percent (25.9 percent now).
Austin Hedges (C - SD):
Hedges struggled in the early going thanks to a hitch in his swing where his hands were loading up a little too slowly compared to the rest of his body. The Padres noticed this and brought this to his attention with a little video session, and you’ve all seen the six homers he’s hit since April 15. Of course, he only has four other non-homer hits since then and needs to get that low .146 BABIP up. Look for that to occur in short order with the improved mechanics in tow as San Diego’s backstop builds off of that 21-homer campaign at Triple-A last season.
Corey Seager (SS - LAD):
Seager has now gone yard in back-to-back games and has a modest five-game hitting streak going (eight of his last nine) as he starts to pick up the pop after a nine-game homerless stretch from April 10-19. He entered Thursday at 19th on the average exit velocity (AEV) leaderboard (92.5 mph) and surely helped his cause with the homer. He’s also one of 10 hitters with at least 20 batted-ball events to have an exit velocity of 95 mph or greater on 52 percent or more of their batted balls. He’s mashing right now and completely deserving of the power being shown.
Jason Heyward (OF - CHC):
If you told me a week ago that Heyward would have three homers and 11 RBI I’d have likely slapped you in the face with a fish or something. Or questioned reality, something dramatic like that. The fact is that Heyward has smashed a dinger on half of his struck balls this week, going 6-for-23 overall. Considering how he hits fifth or sixth in this stacked Cubbies lineup, the guy has to be taken seriously when delivering.
Seven of the 14 balls he hit over this past week were clocked at 101.2 mph or greater, though three were grounders that turned into outs. The point is that his power is certainly rising, now if he could just lock down that launch angle.
Josh Bell (1B/OF - PIT):
Over the last 10 days, Bell has registered 10 batted balls with an exit velocity of 100 mph or greater with only seven failing to reach that mark. This has led to three homers in that span and is a dangerous sign for opposing pitchers if a hitter with a trained eye such as Bell’s can also get in a groove of lacing their strikes for triple digits on the radar gun. With some steadier playing time coming his way as Pittsburgh looks to plug the gap left by Starling Marte, Bell really has a chance to deliver for both the Pirates and fantasy owners alike here.
Power Fallers
Victor Martinez (DH - DET):
Martinez is sporting a putrid .213/.277/.240 triple slash through 83 plate appearances despite a hearty 41.4 percent hard-hit rate (and usual 17.2 percent soft-contact rate). So what gives here? Well, it doesn’t help that his fly-ball rate is currently a career-worst 29.3 percent since you need to hit those in order to clear that fence…usually. He only has two doubles, so it isn’t as though he’s smacking wall shots that could flip to homers any day. This is an issue, as is only two barrels so far (3.5% per BBE), and all the more worrisome since he’s 38 years old.
Adrian Gonzalez (1B - LAD):
Gonzalez was the posterchild of “my fly-ball rate sucks so my power sucks too” in 2016, but he’s got a 35 percent mark in 2017 so what’s the deal? Well, his 26.7 percent hard-hit rate is pretty darn bad and he’s really just not getting good wood on the ball. He has one measly barrel (1.7%) so far with a poor 87.3 mph AEV. He has tagged one ball (out of 19) over 100 mph in the past 10 days, though he did hit 99 on three of them and got two singles and an out. But even that latter “good news” just points to the low productivity of his hard hits when he manages to produce them.
Justin Turner (3B - LAD):
Turner’s .363 batting average and .433 OBP is great! Lovely! His nine doubles show some promise in the power department, but he has yet to make a donation to Souvenir City in 2017. He’s making healthy contact and has an absurd 94 percent zone-contact rate, but they’re just a bunch of liners rather than well-struck flies. That gives him a decent 89.8 mph AEV with a 91.5 mph AEV on flies and liners, but he’s just missing that extra oomph. He’d be the one to feel best about owning out of this group, of course, but we need to see those homers!
Anthony Rendon (3B - WAS):
Rendon was a slow-starter in 2016 as well so perhaps this will become a pattern, but we’d like to get six solid months out of a player instead. Rendon is making decent contact here and hitting plenty of fly balls (40.3 percent) but a ghastly 24.2 percent soft-contact rate that has absorbed 15 percent of his hard-hit rate from 2016 appears to be the culprit here. It’s brought down his 87.8 mph AEV, with only 89.8 mph on fly balls and liners (87.1 mph on grounders). The guy hasn’t even recorded an extra-base hit since April 16! Ugh.
Alex Bregman (3B - HOU):
Bregman has yet to go deep or even record a single “barrel” in 89 plate appearances after smacking eight long shots in 217 PAs as a rookie last season. Another notable bat who is churning out a ton of grounders rather than putting the ball in the air, Bregman is doing fine at the dish but needs to engage liftoff and boost that 86.8 mph AEV. His fly-ball rate has sunk from 43 percent to 25.9 percent thus far, with a whopping 51.7 percent of batted balls being grounders (28.9 percent last season). The sophomore should work this out, but the swing is verified messy right now.
More Risers and Fallers
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