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RotoBaller's Nick Mariano continues our 2016 team outlook series with a focus on the New York Jets.
This article continues off our team outlook series where we will breakdown each NFL team from a fantasy football perspective. We will cover the major changes on each team in the offseason and project what the team will do in the upcoming season.
Today we take a look at the New York Jets.
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Offseason Moves
Offseason Acquisitions: RB Matt Forte, RB Khiry Robinson, OT Ryan Clady, RB Bernard Pierce
Offseason Departures: OT D’Brickshaw Ferguson, DB Antonio Cromartie, WR Jeremy Kerley, TE Jeff Cumberland
Quarterback
The Jets and Ryan Fitzpatrick finally agreed to terms on a one-year contract on July 28, ending what was viewed as a pretty silly dance going on between the two parties. It seemed inevitable, and yet now Fitzpatrick missed out on OTAs and has to get back up to speed in one month. It isn’t the worst because the team around him is pretty similar to last season, but it’s worth noting. He now has a few new running backs and Jace Amaro returns to the starting tight end position, and chemistry is vital.
Those who owned him last season know the 33-year-old posted career-highs in passing yards (3,905) and touchdowns (31) while chipping in 270 rushing yards and two ground TDs. While he isn’t the most talented passer, he’s a gritty gamer who is capable of extending plays with his feet that also gets to throw to one of the most dynamic receiving duos in the game.
He’s being drafted as the QB22 currently (average ADP of 188.5), but that also reflects earlier drafts before he was signed. FantasyFootballCalculator has his ADP rising to 156 after the news broke, though he is still only the QB21. He’s great value there for QB streamers and those in 2QB leagues.
Running Backs
In one of the more exciting moves of the offseason, the Jets brought in long-time Chicago Bear Matt Forte after rushing for 898 yards (4.1 yards per carry) and four TDs while catching 44 of 58 targets for 389 yards and three TDs in 13 games. He was splitting carries with Jeremy Langford throughout the second half of the season, which may be a blessing for those trying to gauge how the 2016 Jets backfield will look with Bilal Powell mixing in.
Powell looked very strong in 11 games last season, rushing for 313 yards (4.5 YPC) and two TDs with career-highs in the passing game (despite missing five games), snagging 47 of 63 targets for 388 yards and two more TDs. Reports have surfaced saying to expect a pretty even split between these two backs, meaning each should be fresh when called upon but won’t have fantastic stand-alone value without an injury to the other.
On July 18, Forte had an FFC ADP of 3.07 compared to Powell’s 13.07, which has closed to 3.12 vs. 9.12 as of Aug. 14 in standard formats against current PPR ADPs of 4.05 and 9.05. Forte is still being relatively “over-drafted” with other RB1-types whereas Powell is mostly upside there.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker were incredible last season, each surpassing 1,000 yards and hauling in double-digit touchdowns for the Jets. Marshall is clearly the WR1 here though, catching 109 of 173 targets for 1,502 yards and 14 TDs. That said, he’s still the eighth WR off of the board right now and makes for a fantastic second-round pick. He was going in the third round when fantasy owners were faced with the prospect of Geno Smith throwing him the ball, but Marshall’s stock has bounced back to #16 with Fitz in tow.
The same goes for Decker, whose ADP was in the early sixth-round but has now rebounded into the middle of the fifth round at #56. He caught 80 of 132 targets for 1,027 yards and 12 TDs despite dealing with a nagging knee injury that forced him to miss a game. Both of these WRs are healthy right now and make for stellar picks in all formats.
After the two studs, Quincy Enunwa, Kenbrell Thompkins and Devin Smith should work in, but probably won’t provide any real value this season.
Tight End
The Jets barely utilized their tight ends at all in 2015, but that came after their 2014 second-round pick was lost for the entire year before the season even started. He’s all good now though, and the 6’5” Texas Tech product should become a big target over the middle, complementing the stellar wide outs well. He’s being completely forgotten about in drafts, being taken 35th out of TEs with an average ADP of 270, so feel free to grab a big target in a pass-happy offense for peanuts at the end of your draft. It’s all profits at that point.
Defense
Last season the Jets were the best unit against the run and ninth-best against the pass per FootballOutsiders DVOA, but were one of only two defenses that failed to score a touchdown on the season. While TDs make for high point totals, they’re hardly bankable in any way, so don’t read too much into that.
While the Jets did lose beastly run-stuffer Damon Harrison to free agency, they are still a stout unit up front that boasts especially strong defensive ends in Muhammad Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams. Their linebackers are solid, and their secondary is anchored by one of the greatest DBs in the game in Darrelle Revis. Cromartie was more name than performance, as he ranked as one of the worst cornerbacks last season, so hopefully Buster Skrine and Dee Milliner can step up opposite Revis.
They’re currently being taken as the ninth DEF off of the board according to FFC, which is a fine spot, but there’s no reason to reach for them.
Kicker
Nick Folk’s 2015 was ended after eight games due to a severe quadriceps injury, but he’s all good now and looks to be the starting kicker in 2016. The Jets brought in undrafted rookie Ross Martin for competition, but likely needed to be perfect to have a chance at unseating Folk and well, he missed two field goals in their first preseason game. Fire up Folk as a decent last-round kicker after all of the top names are gone.
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