March 23, 2016

Christopher Olson analyzes Robinson Cano as a 2016 fantasy baseball sleeper and draft value. This MLB second baseman projects to exceed his ADP and can be a sleeper.

Former player and coach Andy Van Slyke made headlines in November when he went on 920 AM in St. Louis to say that Robinson Cano was “the single worst third-place, everyday player” he had ever seen for the first half of a season. Even the most rabid Cano hater would likely agree that the comment was uncalled for, but there’s no denying that the 33-year-old’s performance out of the gate in 2015 led to one of his worst statistical seasons. The question we need to ask ourselves as fantasy owners is if the poor showing is something that deserves our attention, or if we should simply take advantage of his reduced price heading into 2016.

Editor's note: Be sure to check out our 2016 fantasy baseball rankings tool, which is already loaded up with lots of great articles. Aside from staff rankings and ADP analysis across all positions, we also dig into MLB prospect rankings, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well.

2015 In Review and 2016 Outlook

A quick look at Cano’s stat line in the first half could provide some insight into Van Slyke’s criticism. Through 346 at-bats prior to the All-Star break, Cano tallied just a .290 OBP with six home runs. His peripheral stats didn’t offer much in the way of encouragement, as he produced a .118 ISO with an 8% HR/FB ratio.

Cano kicked it into another gear after the break, posting a .209 ISO and 15 home runs in 70 games, bringing his final batting line to a respectable .287/.334/446 with 21 homers and 79 RBI. There is a tendency to look only at the most recent performance of a player when projecting forward, but is it fair to say that Cano’s first half was simply the result of an extended slump?

It was revealed in July that Cano had been suffering from acid reflux, which he said sapped his energy. We also learned that he had been playing through a double sports hernia in the second half. It’s difficult to say how much impact either of these ailments had on performance, but Cano told MLB.com in February that he is "98 percent healthy" entering the new campaign, which should alleviate any fears that owners could be drafting damaged goods.

Cano was able to bring most of his numbers close to his career norms with the big surge down the stretch, but there is still a real concern that his power may be evaporating. In his first two seasons as a member of the Mariners, Cano’s ISO numbers have reached .139 and .159, respectively, after staying above .200 for the previous four seasons. Cano’s RBI totals may also stay low in what is a pretty weak Seattle lineup. His past two seasons have seen him post a combined 161 steaks, which is his lowest two-year total since he was a member of the Yankees in 2008 and 2009.

Conclusion

As mentioned in the open, these deficiencies will get you Cano at a reduced price, as he has slipped from the first overall selection at second base to a player who is generally being picked behind Jose Altuve and Dee Gordon. The concern about the power loss is a legitimate one, but Cano showed us that he can still be productive in the second half, and he should be able to return nice value for those willing to grab him in the fifth or sixth round of standard drafts, as he will likely begin the campaign without restrictions.

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