RADIO
When searching for sleepers in the fantasy universe, it is important to remember that players recovering from injury often make the best candidates. The reason for this is prospective owners are sometimes hesitant to believe a player coming back from an extended absence will be able to replicate their past success. While this is a legitimate concern in some cases, it behooves us to take each case on its own merits, as we could potentially discover value in someone that others have pushed aside in favor of performers who offer more safety.
Consider the case of Patrick Corbin. Corbin looked to be on his way to becoming a solid starter after he posted a 3.41 ERA over 208.1 innings in 2013, but fell off the fantasy radar due to missing the entire 2014 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Corbin was able to make his return in July last season, posting a 3.60 ERA in 85 innings (16 starts).
Perhaps the most encouraging thing about Corbin is he didn’t seem to show any rust upon his return. His strikeout rate (22%) and walk rate (4.8%) were actually better than the numbers he posted in 2013, while his groundball rate (47%), swinging strike rate (10.8%), and fastball velocity (92.4), were nearly identical. The potential to give up home runs is always a concern in the desert, but Corbin has never had an issue with the long ball in the past, logging a career HR/9 rate of less than 1.0 over 400 career innings.
It is also nice to see that a young pitcher like Corbin has an understanding of what works and what doesn’t. The 26-year-old’s best pitch in 2013 was undoubtedly his slider, which came in at nine runs above average. Perhaps recognizing this, he upped the usage of the pitch in 2105 to 29% after using it just 23 percent of the time prior to the injury.
As with any player embarking on his first full season after major surgery, it remains to be seen if Corbin will be able to throw enough innings to be fantasy relevant. While there hasn’t been a firm declaration on his usage from the Diamondbacks, the Arizona Republic reported in October that manager Chip Hale floated the idea of 175-180 innings, while Corbin said that he was “good to go” following the cup of coffee last year.
Corbin comes with a certain amount of risk heading into 2016, but could return a substantial reward. He is currently being selected towards the back end of drafts in standard leagues, near pitchers like Gio Gonzalez and Jaime Garcia. While that may seem like a bit of a reach, I think Corbin has the potential to return more value than both of those guys if he is able to stay healthy. Those who are interested in owning shares of Corbin would do well to track his progression during the offseason and listen for updates regarding his usage, as he appears to be on the verge of becoming the young gun we were expecting in the months prior to the 2014 season.
Source: The Arizona Republic
