Few things complicate a fantasy baseball owner's plans like September innings limits.

You can understand why a team would want to protect its most valuable arm, but just because the real team is dead in the water doesn't mean a fantasy roster doesn't still need it. It becomes even more confusing if the team is still in it, like Stephen Strasburg in 2012.

That is the situation the Mets find themselves in with nearly their entire rotation, including Matt Harvey and Noah Syndergaard. While some teams have figured this out - the Yankees' suddenly dominant Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino come to mind - the rest of us are left to figure out who to trust for the rest of the year.

 

Nathan Eovaldi (SP, NYY)

Back to innings limits in a second - when the heck did this guy get so good? Eovaldi sports a 14-3 record this season, Cy Young worthy until you consider his 4.20 ERA. His FIP is better at 3.43, but the righthander's recent performance overshadows the season long stats. Over the campaign's first three months, Eovaldi compiled ERAs of 4.15, 4.54, and 5.76. He was barely rosterable even with all of the Ws. Then, he posted a 3.09 mark in July, and followed it up with 3.69 in August with a hot start to September as well. What happened?

Eovaldi has always been able to light up the radar gun, averaging 95.5 mph on his heater over his career. He is on pace to set a new career high in velocity, with 96.5 mph. This seems like it might be our answer - that is serious gas - but it isn't. Despite the velocity spike, hitters have a .331/.404/.454 triple slash line against the pitch. It posts below average strikeout numbers, and just does not seem to fool MLB hitters. Its usage is even down from 57.1% a year ago to 48.3% this.

Eovaldi is also using his 2 seamer less often, from 6.6% last year to an almost accidental 0.9% figure. Both fastballs have been replaced by a brand new splitter, thrown 16.8% of the time. Hitters struggle with this new offering, posting a weak .193/.229/.220 triple slash line against it. It generates whiffs 16.3% of the time, and is chased outside of the strike zone at a 44.7% clip. Contact against it is on the ground at a strong 67% rate, allowing Eovaldi to set a new career best in GB% (52.2%) this season, particularly important at homer-happy Yankee Stadium. This must be our answer.

Yet a month by month analysis suggests it isn't. When Eovaldi was working on the offering earlier this season, he struggled. You would think that he finally figured it out in July, when his non-W numbers took a turn for the better. He did not master the split until August, however, as evidenced by an improvement in K/9 from July's 6.43 to August's 8.24. Yet the turnaround clearly started in July, before the split gave the pitcher a reliable K pitch. BABIP is not the answer, as July's .330 mark was actually slightly worse than the dreadful June's .326 figure. HR/FB is also not the answer, as July's 3.7% HR/FB is not any better than June's 3.6% mark. This leaves random sequencing as the probable cause of Eovaldi's improvement, suggesting it may have played a role in August as well. If that is the case, the splitter is not the cause of Eovaldi's improved performance. Instead, it is luck - which is not a sustainable skill.

To be clear, having a MLB quality offering is better than not having one - in addition to the fastball, both the slider (.308) and curve (.310) have BAAs that are way too high for an MLB pitcher who throws as hard as Eovaldi does. This explains Eovaldi's elevated BABIP of .337 this year as well as his .316 career figure, arguing against much improvement in that area. His current career best strikeout rate of 7.06/9 is barely adequate for fantasy purposes, and could regress as hitters get word of the new split finger. His walk rate of 2.86/9 is way too high for someone with a below average strikeout rate as well. Overall, he just does not have major league stuff despite how hard he throws. The Ws make it okay for now, but they are fickle - you do not want a guy with maybe one MLB pitch on your fantasy squad.

Verdict: Chump

 

Noah Syndergaard (SP, NYM)

The prized prospect from the RA Dickey trade, Thor has lived up to his Asgardian nickname with a 8-6 record and 3.31 ERA completely supported by a 3.39 FIP. His 9.49 K/9 are the complete opposite of Eovaldi, and they are supported by the rookie's minor league history. In 54 IP at Double-A in 2013, he posted an elite 11.5 K/9. At Triple-A the next season, it was a robust 9.81. Repeating the level before his callup this season, it jumped to 10.31. He has also shown strong control consistently, with just two walks per nine at Double-A, 2.91 last season, 2.43 before his MLB debut, and 2.13 at the Show.

The Triple-A number from last season might not look great, but remember that it was in the notorious Pacific Coast League, a minor league where every game is effectively at Coors Field. A .378 BABIP and low 67.2% strand rate despite the strikeouts suggest that nothing went right that season, and the resulting 4.60 ERA is understandable. Other than that one blemish, Thor dominated the minors in every conceivable way.

By Pitch f/x, that domination figures to continue. Thor's Hammer, also called Syndergaard's curveball, sports a 18.2% whiff rate and 38.9% chase rate. Syndergaard supports his signature offering with a strong complement of supporting pitches, with the heater (9.2%), change (14.7%), and slider (12.9%) all offering average or better SwStr% numbers. Even the sinker - the bane of most fantasy owners's existence - isn't entirely worthless at 7.8%. Everything is set up for Thor to be an ace for years to come.

But this entry concludes with a chump tag. Why? The Mets are not going to let him pitch. He had his Sunday turn skipped to accommodate the returning Steven Matz, and the plan moving forward is once again to adopt a six man rotation. The Matt Harvey 180 IP limit fiasco does not seem to mean a reprieve for Thor, as it appears that rookie Logan Verrett could assume Harvey's slot if the latter is shut down.  This means that Syndergaard's fantasy owners will never get another two start week out of the young ace, a serious problem with H2H playoffs and the end of the roto marathon just around the corner. It is also entirely possible that Thor has another start skipped or gets limited to 3 IP if the Mets clinch a postseason berth early, making him essentially a glorified reliever in fantasy.

Lest dynasty leaguers already looking forward to next season think this is good news for them, we might have this same discussion next year. Syndergaard has thrown 152 IP this year. His previous high was last year's 133. If he is limited to four starts (one per week) the rest of the way and goes 6 IP in three and 3 in the final postseason tuneup, that makes 173 IP. An early exit in October could mean just one additional start for 7 IP. 180 total IP. If the Mets make a deep postseason run in 2016, Thor might be on a pace for 220+ total IP. That would be too big of a jump from 180, meaning that he would again be babied this time next year. The particulars could be better or worse than my innings forecast, but the possibility is very real that Thor goes so easy this month that the same thing happens next year.

To conclude, Thor is having a Rookie of the Year caliber season fully justified by advanced metrics and minor league history. His luck stats have been essentially neutral, with a 12.9% HR/FB, neutral .291 BABIP, and 75% strand rate. Yet none of it matters to fantasy owners as he simply won't pitch enough to matter, especially if the Nationals fall apart in their next series against New York.

Verdict: Chump

 

Stephen Strasburg (SP, WAS)

Had the Nationals handled their young ace differently in 2012, it is possible that the above section would be completely different. It also hasn't worked from Washington's point of view, as Strasburg has been on the Disabled List frequently (including as of this writing) despite missing the postseason in 2012. He is slated to return on Wednesday for the final game of the Mets series, and hopefully pitch the rest of the season with no constraints.

When he is activated, the Nats will get an arm with a 8-6 record and 4.35 ERA, though his 3.35 FIP looks much better. His 9.69 K/9 remain strong, though Strasburg has broken double digits in the past. His 2.08 BB/9 are very good for a high strikeout pitcher, continuing the growth in control that first appeared in 2014. Much has been made of the possibility that he is not "tough" with runners in scoring position, leading to a below average 66.3% LOB%, but that is probably more the product of a .388 BABIP with RISP (.284 with bases empty) than any mental defect. His career 73.1% LOB% also suggests that mental toughness has nothing to do with his struggles this year.

More concerning is a decline in SwStr%, from a strong 11.4% figure in 2014 to an essentially league average 9.7% figure this season. This seems to boil down entirely to pitch selection, as he is throwing a career high number of 4-seamers (40.7% last season to 54.4% this) at the expense of 2-seamers (19.8% to 9%) and changeups (21.5% to 13.8%). Fantasy owners do not care about the 2-seamers. They're pounded for a .357/.379/.571 triple slash line and offer no strikeout upside. We miss the changeup, Strasburg's best pitch by SwStr%. This season, it leads the field with a 16.2% whiff rate. For his career, it offers an insane 25% SwStr%. If Strasburg throws more changeups, the strikeout rate should make a full recovery.

Also concerning is a case of gopheritis, with a 12.4% HR/FB seeming a tad too high. However, his 13.1% mark last season and career 11.4% rate suggest that Strasburg may be a little more prone to homers than most, a common problem for strikeout pitchers that work up in the zone. Interestingly, all of Strasburg's bombs have come on fastballs of the 2 or 4 seam variety. The 2-seamer allows the unholy combination of a 30.4% flyball rate and and 28.6% HR/FB, meaning that it is elevated a lot and gone 3 out of 10 times. It should probably just be scrapped. The 4-seamer is in the air 28.6% of the time and gone 19%. Most pitchers can't completely scrap their fastball, but Strasburg's is a strike 62.5% of the time this season, far more often than the heater's career zone% of 56.4%. This jump, combined with the uptick in usage, made Strasburg's overall zone% rise to 51.2% from 44% last season. It seems likely that this has made Washington's stud pitcher far too predictable. He has the stuff to beat major league hitters - they'll chase if he lets them. More changeups and fewer strikes should fix what ails Strasburg.

Strasburg's surface numbers aren't what anyone hoped for, and his health is a question going forward. Health is a concern for every pitcher, however, and Strasburg has seen some legitimately bad luck in both his HR/FB and BABIP (.323) this season. He seems to be a good rebound candidate for the rest of this season and 2016 drafts, so he gets a champ tag despite setting the precedent for the entire Mets rotation to watch their team play in October with a protective layer of bubble wrap.

Verdict: Champ

 

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