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RotoBaller staff's league-losing picks for the 2026 fantasy football season. Expert draft advice and avoids from RotoBaller, including De'Von Achane, Justin Jefferson, and more.
Drafting a player at a high cost who ends up disappointing can be detrimental to your chances of claiming a fantasy football championship.
In this piece, we will take a look at some of the early-round players that members of the RotoBaller fantasy football staff will be fading in this year's drafts. Read ahead as we highlight some top fades from Corbin Young, Frank Ammirante, Mike Florio, Adam Koffler, Nicho Roessler, and Andrew Lalama.
Let's take a look at some potential early-round landmines. Let's dive in!
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Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers
Update 8/30 - Josh Jacobs has been placed on the Commissioner's Exempt List, which will prevent him from practicing or appearing in games for the foreseeable future. As a result, managers should avoid him at his current ADP.
Jacobs has been dealing with a groin injury early in training camp, which adds to the risk, especially after being arrested on several preliminary charges. The groin injury has been reported over the past few weeks, so there will be additional risk as we head closer to September.
If healthy, Jacobs could smash his draft cost after producing as the RB10 (2025) and RB6 (2024). He handled over 83% of the team's rushes inside the five-yard line. However, Jacobs had a below-average explosive rush rate (4.3%) and a declining success rate (49.1%).
The visual below shows the offensive line data sorted by the highest pressure rate.
The Packers had a below-average offensive line, ranking 24th in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and allowing the third-highest pressure rate (43.6%). That put the Packers behind the Browns (44.8%) and Patriots (43.9%) in pressure rate allowed last season.
Most of their 2026 NFL Draft picks were spent on defense, with one Day 3 interior offensive lineman in Jager Burton as a depth piece. Burton played five seasons at Kentucky, finishing his collegiate career strong as a run and pass-blocker, but better known for the latter.
Emanuel Wilson had the second-most carries on the Packers last season and is now with the Seahawks. MarShawn Lloyd has been healthy throughout training camp, with Chris Brooks as the RB3 on the roster. Lloyd has been one of my late-round running back sleepers. That said, the Packers lack backfield depth, so they are relying on Jacobs to be healthy.
If the draft price dips significantly with the groin injury, we could consider a discount. Jacobs might be a dead zone back, though we've seen him score 12 or more touchdowns in four of his seven NFL seasons, so it's a high-risk, high-reward pick.
- Corbin Young
Carnell Tate, WR, Tennessee Titans
I'm a fan of Carnell Tate's game. I wrote an in-depth article about him with film clips and proclaimed him as my WR1 in his class. I was not surprised he went in the top five. However, fantasy football is all about price and opportunity cost, and he's simply too expensive for me this season.
With an ADP of 58.5, Tate typically goes off the board around other young potential breakouts with upside to smash down the stretch. There are also some boring running backs with useful floors like Rhamondre Stevenson and Jaylen Warren in that range.
My avoid on Tate this year is a bet against Cam Ward. Ward was very bad as a rookie, and would need to take huge strides in Year 2 to help Tate have a rookie year that lives up to his lofty price tag.
I'm simply fading Ward because his rookie season was that bad. He was inaccurate (59.8% completion), and only threw for 15 touchdowns the entire year. Ward came in as an older prospect and is already 24 years old -- it's likelier that he's a bust because of his age-adjusted poor rookie season.
Could OC Brian Daboll help Ward make a Year 2 leap? Sure, but even if he does get better, there are other outs to Tate failing at cost. First, he may not be as good as his fourth overall draft capital might indicate.
Tate was always a WR2 in college, and it was somewhat of a surprise he went top five. Second, Wan'Dale Robinson has been a target-earning machine for Daboll. He might be an annoying WR2, preventing Tate from earning an alpha target share.
Carnell Tate
Speed cut
Poor vertical sell
Maybe they knew the defense would be that soft so that’s why?
Not a translatable pro quality route pic.twitter.com/gvDqiMaebY
— Andrew (GPNGC) (@DraftWithAndrew) March 6, 2026
- Andrew Lalama
George Pickens, WR, Dallas Cowboys
Dallas Cowboys wide receiver George Pickens broke out massively in 2025, finishing as the WR5, earning 137 targets and hauling in 93 of them for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns.
He was dealt to the Cowboys after spending his first three seasons with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and it was a match made in heaven. Pickens excels at what Dak Prescott likes to do: push the ball down the field.
Pickens finished seventh at the position in air yards, third in red-zone targets, and fifth in fantasy points per game (17.2). Under the hood was also solid, with a 2.40 yards per route run (YPRR) and ninth in the NFL in first downs per route run. So, why is he a fade?
For starters, he benefited significantly from CeeDee Lamb missing three games and dealing with a high ankle sprain for a majority of the season. Lamb hauled in three touchdowns, which was a career low for him. Lamb enters the 2026 season fully healthy with a chip on his shoulder and remains the alpha receiver in this offense.
Nasty route from CeeDee Lamb for the touchdown #Cowboys pic.twitter.com/vVxuFtEGf0
— Tommy Yarrish (@tommy_yarrish) August 8, 2026
Pickens was 25th in target share, 30th in target rate, 93rd in designed target share, and 73rd in separation. While he finished as the WR5 in fantasy points per game, he was ninth in expected fantasy points per game and coming off a career high in touchdowns and targets, which will be difficult to replicate.
While that is solid production overall, Pickens is being drafted as a top-10 receiver behind guys like A.J. Brown, Rashee Rice, DeVonta Smith, and Chris Olave. All guys are the clear alpha receiver on their team and won't be capped by having another superstar demanding the ball.
- Nicho Roessler
Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Christian McCaffrey is one of the best fantasy players of all time, but I am still fading him this year. The main reason is that, with playoffs included, he registered 450 touches last year. Since 2010, there have been three cases where a running back registered that many touches. Each saw their yardage decrease by at least 38 percent the following year.
The last time CMC handled 400 touches in a season, he was 23 years old and played three games the following season and 10 in the next two years. Now he is 30, significantly older than any other player in this sample. On top of that, McCaffrey’s rushing production has been fading. He saw the fewest rushing yards over expectation (-166) in 2025.
Including the playoffs, Christian McCaffrey had 450 touches this season 👀
This scares me a ton for next season! Why? Let me explain 👇👇
— Michael F. Florio (@MichaelFFlorio) January 22, 2026
There are both injury and performance-decline concerns with CMC. The upside is very high, but I would argue it is very unlikely he duplicates last year's volume. Even if he comes close, the production decline adds a concern there. Given that you need to use a top-5 pick, I will continue to pass for other options.
- Mike Florio
De'Von Achane - RB, Miami Dolphins
Achane is an explosive back who can make a major impact in the passing game. But there have been so many changes in his team context, making him a clear fade in 2026.
For one, former head coach Mike McDaniel is now the Chargers' offensive coordinator. When Achane came into the league, people didn't think he'd have a massive workload, but McDaniel gave it to him. Can we trust the new coaching staff led by Jeff Hafley to do the same?
I want RB1 overall in the range of outcomes if I'm taking a running back in the first two rounds.
I don't see that for De'Von Achane.
Not with this dumpster fire of an offense.
For that reason:
Zero shares.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 9, 2026
You could say yes because Achane is that good. I wouldn't push back too much on that one, as I know he's an absolute stud. Which leads me to my next question: Do you want your second-round pick to be from one of the worst teams in the NFL?
Not only did the Dolphins lose McDaniel, but they also traded Jaylen Waddle. New quarterback Malik Willis has a bottom-tier receiving corps, with Jalen Tolbert and Malik Washington leading the way. Additionally, having a scrambling quarterback like Willis instead of a statuesque pocket passer like Tua Tagovailoa means that we're likely to see a downgrade in receiving volume.
To sum all that up: Achane is in a new scheme with an inferior supporting cast headed for less receiving volume. The Dolphins are likely to win no more than three or four games. They're going to be blown out at times, where Achane is scripted out of the game, as the team has no reason to risk injury. The opportunity cost of taking Achane in the second round is simply way too high, so I'm out on him.
- Frank Ammriante
Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
Here's a prime example of "it's not the player, it's the ADP and the situation."
Jefferson is obviously one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Heck, just two years ago he put up 1,533 yards and 10 touchdowns en route to a top 5 fantasy finish.
We all know how last season went with J.J. McCarthy, Carson Wentz, and Max Brosmer. It was by far the worst season of Jefferson's career.
He just barely topped 1,000 yards and scored just two touchdowns.
Up until last season, Jefferson has sliced up defenses on intermediate and deep routes, averaging a career 15.01 yards per catch.
In 2o25, he averaged just 12.48 yards per catch. And therein lies the problem.
In comes Kyler Murray to save the day, right? Maybe, but also, maybe not (and for the sake of this exercise, we're assuming he beats out McCarthy for the starting job).
Murray has never topped 4,000 passing yards or 26 passing touchdowns in a season.
It's a foregone conclusion that he's going to run the football more than Jefferson's previous quarterbacks (Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold) ever did.
For his career, Murray has averaged 6.1 rushing attempts per game. So right off the bat, we can expect lower pass volume.
Yes, Murray supported DeAndre Hopkins in Arizona for a couple of really good seasons, particularly in 2020.
That season, Hopkins caught 115-of-160 targets for 1,407 yards and six touchdowns. But as you can see, the yards per catch were relatively low (12.23).
Historically, that's not where Jefferson has made a living. He thrives on deeper routes. It's possible this isn't a match made in heaven.
And we haven't even discussed the other pass-catching options for Murray.
Jordan Addison is very good, Jauan Jennings had nine touchdowns on 90 targets last season, and T.J. Hockenson is another year removed from knee surgery in 2024.
Jefferson's best seasons have come playing with pocket passers that rely on precision and accuracy. It remains to be seen if Murray can become that type of quarterback.
And on top of all that, the Vikings aren't likely to be in a ton of shootouts this season. Their average implied point total sits at just 22.5 (12th-lowest).
They can win games with their defense. Last season, they allowed just 19.6 points per game.
There are just too many variables and too much competition in Minnesota to be in on Jefferson as a top 10 pick in 2026.
- Adam Koffler
DJ Moore - WR, Buffalo Bills
I get it, you're excited about Moore with the Bills because he gets to play with Josh Allen. But here's the thing: This is a wideout entering his age-29 season, playing in a run-heavy offense that likes to spread the ball around. Remember when the Bills traded for Amari Cooper a couple of years ago? This feels like the same situation.
There is still Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid in this offense. Not to mention the fact that Moore has been more underwhelming than you think.
DJ Moore has finished as WR27 or worse in PPR PPG in 5 of the last 6 seasons.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) July 8, 2026
So, here we have a wideout with WR27 ADP, which is his best finish in five of his last six seasons. Do we really expect a resurgence at this late stage of his career? Moore clearly has declined. He was reduced to more of a gadget player in his final year with the Bears. Ben Johnson preferred to feature Rome Odunze.
If you faded potential bounce-back veteran wide receivers, your hit rate would be quite high. Just think back to when Allen Robinson II joined the Rams. This is what this Moore to Buffalo move feels like.
- Frank Ammirante
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2026 Player Decisions. Today's focus is on specific players - De'Von Achane, Christian McCaffrey, George Pickens, DJ Moore, Justin Jefferson, Carnell Tate. These are some common searches for 2026 fantasy football drafts.
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