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RotoBaller's 12 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including staff predictions for Hunter Brown, Junior Caminero, Gunnar Henderson, more.
With Opening Day just a week away, it's time to look at some bold predictions. While these predictions are unlikely to come to pass, they are grounded in reality and could suggest which players are poised for a breakout (or a disappointing) campaign.
In this piece, we will spotlight 12 of our RotoBaller Fantasy Baseball Staff's bold predictions, including Junior Caminero, Gunnar Henderson, Hunter Brown, and Jackson Merrill.
Be sure to follow RotoBallerMLB on X for the latest content and our award-winning player news desk for breaking injury and lineup updates over the course of the season. Let's dive in!
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Gunnar Henderson Stays Healthy, Goes 40/40
We’ve seen the calls for 30/30 or even 35/35, but these are boldies, daggumit. If you weren’t paying attention to baseball in January, you may have missed that Henderson battled a left shoulder impingement after diving for a ball early on. This came after he required an IL stint at the start of the year due to an intercostal strain.
Henderson said how he felt his swing “couldn’t plane out as early as I wanted to and just chopped down on the ball.” Despite playing in 154 games, he wouldn’t hit more than four homers in a month, popping only 17 in all after smacking 37 in 2024.
He won’t turn 25 until late June and could have another power jump in his 6-foot-3 frame. After all, saying someone who hit 37 HRs in his age 22/23 campaign will hit 40 isn’t wild. And though he’s a left-handed bat, that was the first year that Baltimore reverted the wall to a more neutral position.
And despite the power turbulence, he still showed promising signs in the box. Per FanGraphs, only three others among the 176 qualified bats bested Hendo’s 29.3% line-drive rate between June 1 and July 31. His .336 xBA in that span was tops by 19 points, though his .319 AVG was “only” 13th.
Then the batted-ball quality started to drop off in the final two months, which is when he started truly pushing it on the basepaths. He only stole three bases apiece in April, May, and June. This rose to five in July, then six in August, and 10 (!) in September, joining Juan Soto and Corbin Carroll as the only ones in double digits to wrap up the regular season.
Take that confidence into the new, healthy year, and let’s see him truly join the elites. Well, maybe he needs to improve against southpaws more first (career .678 OPS vs. LHP, .893 vs. RHP), but we’ll take the HR+SB juice first.
- Written by Nick Mariano
Dylan Cease Finishes Top-3 In American League Cy Young Voting
Dylan Cease pitched better than his actual numbers suggested last year. His expected ERA (3.46) was more than a whole point lower than his actual ERA (4.55), and Cease finished in the 80th percentile or better in expected batting average against (.214), chase rate (31%), whiff rate (33.4%), and strikeout rate (29.8%). So, Cease should see some positive regression in 2026.
He also lands in a much better situation with the Toronto Blue Jays. The Blue Jays had one of the best defenses in Major League Baseball last season, which should only help the right-hander's numbers on the mound. If you also believe in that every other year trend that Cease is currently on, he should be in for a dominant Cy Young season.
It seems like every time Cease struggles during a season, he follows it up with a strong pitching campaign. That's exactly what happened in 2022 and 2024. Given that the veteran is one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers in all of baseball, he will finish in the top 3 in American League Cy Young voting this year. That Cy Young finish would mean that the Blue Jays pitcher would be a fantasy superstar in 2026 and a great value at his current price tag.
- Written by Joey Pollizze
Jac Caglianone Hits 40 HR with 120 RBI
Remember when there was a Nick Kurtz vs Jac Caglianone debate early in 2025? Well, that is no longer a debate as Kurtz dominated and Caglianone struggled mightily. But as we enter 2026, I'm fully on board with a Caglianone bounce-back and breakout season.
This Jac Caglianone home run...
460 Feet
115.2 mph EVI'm buying Cags in 2026. Both in redraft and dynasty.pic.twitter.com/M65scLWShD
— Eric Cross (@EricCrossMLB) February 25, 2026
With Caglianone, the power upside is massive, even if the quality of contact metrics wasn't exactly elite. Caglianone did have a solid 12% barrel rate, 89.4 mph AVG EV, and 42.4% hard-hit rate, but those metrics were limited by his overly aggressive approach, leading to too many weak hit balls, many of which he chased outside the zone.
The chase rate has always been the main issue for Caglianone, dating back to his days at the University of Florida. He made solid contact at a 84.7% zone and 73.2% overall rate last season with the Royals, but a 38.5% chase rate wasn't doing him any favors.
If he can become a bit more patient and wait for his pitch to drive, Caglianone could quickly turn into a middle-of-the-order masher and top-notch run producer, especially if he's going to be hitting 5th behind Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, and Salvador Perez. Kansas City moving the fences in is a bonus as well.
- Written by Eric Cross
Matt Strahm Records at Least 25 Saves
Strahm is a solid lefty reliever, posting a 2.74 ERA and 2.77 expected earned run average (xERA) across 62 1/3 innings pitched (IP) with the Phillies last season. He occasionally featured in Philadelphia's ninth-inning committee mix over the years but never established himself as a true closer.
Now a Royal, Strahm's opportunity is here. His 27.3 K% and 7.8 BB% suggest the kind of dominance managers look for from closers, and he's the only guy in Kansas City's bullpen who offers it.
Carlos Estevez is the incumbent, but his shiny 2.45 ERA masked a 4.95 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) and 3.69 xERA in 66 IP. The 33-year-old wasn't dominant at all with a 20.1 K% and 8.2 BB%, and his 51.6 FB% is playing with fire in the ninth inning. The Royals are moving the fences in at Kauffman this year, likely meaning more homers allowed for Estevez.
Lucas Erceg is the other big name in Kansas City's pen, but his 3.95 xFIP and 3.83 xERA didn't match his 2.64 ERA in 61 1/3 IP either. The 30-year-old lost a tick of fastball velocity, and his 19.3 K% and 7.2 BB% don't scream ninth inning.
Alex Lange has ninth-inning experience, but lacks the control to consistently handle the role. That leaves Strahm as the only dominant reliever on the Royals, potentially giving him more save opportunities than anyone expects.
- Written by Rick Lucks
Hunter Brown Finishes Outside of the Top-20 SP
Hunter Brown was sensational in 2025, finishing as the fifth-best starting pitcher with a 2.43 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 206 strikeouts in 185 innings. However, I'm not betting on a repeat performance.
For one, his 3.39 SIERA ranked 11th among qualified starting pitchers (which is still great), but it also shows he had some luck to finish with the third-best ERA. He had a 3.77 SIERA in both 2024 and 2023, and his ERAs in those seasons were 3.49 and 5.09, respectively. That's not to say I think he will have a 5.00 ERA again in 2026, but a 3.50 mark is much more likely.
For reference, Brown's ATC projections are currently a 3.48 ERA and 1.17 WHIP, and he is projected to finish as SP 15 in 5x5 roto.
The other aspect of his game that is likely to regress is his strikeouts. While he posted an 83rd-percentile 28.3% strikeout rate in 2025, his 27.8% whiff rate (71st percentile) and 29.4% chase rate (63rd percentile) were less impressive, and the 27-year-old's first strike rate was only 55.7%, which was dead last among the 52 qualified pitchers.
Brown is an extremely easy fade for me with his current price as SP8 in the current NFBC ADP. While he's still a good pitcher, I think a repeat of his top-10 finish is unlikely, and just a little bad luck could quickly spiral him outside of the top-20 by season's end.
- Written by Jeremy Heist
Griffin Jax is a Top-5 RP, Tallies 100+ Strikeouts with 25+ Saves
While Williams is projected to be my top reliever in terms of saves, let's dig a bit deeper and find the league-winning relief pitcher to conclude our bold predictions. Last season, we saw Emilio Pagan and Carlos Estevez provide immediate value on their ADP and were the primary late-round closers to draft.
While Bryan Abreu has seen his stock rise with Josh Hader's biceps injury, I predict that Tampa Bay's Griffin Jax will provide massive returns at his current 186 ADP on NFBC drafts and finish as a borderline top-5 relief pitcher.
Jax is currently in a Tampa Bay bullpen that has several viable high-leverage options, such as Edwin Uceta and left-hander Garrett Cleavinger. However, with Uceta battling a shoulder injury and in danger of missing Opening Day, Jax could emerge as the go-to option much earlier than previously expected.
Throughout his time in Minnesota, Jax typically operated as the setup man behind Jhoan Duran but was one of the game's top strikeout pitchers.
Over the past two seasons, Jax posted a K% above 34.0%, placing him in the 98th percentile or higher each season. In 2024, Jax was dominant, holding a 2.03 ERA with a 0.87 WHIP. While his surface value ratios took a step back in 2025 (4.23 ERA), his underlying 3.26 xERA suggests he should see a significant positive regression in 2026.
Give his elite strikeout potential and Uceta's early injury, Jax could flirt with a 100-strikeout season while totaling 25+ saves on a Rays team that should be in the Wild Card race. If you choose to fade the high-end options at the position, be sure to target Jax near the end of your draft, as he could be this year's Pagan or Estevez, just with elite strikeout totals.
- Written by Andy Smith
Colson Montgomery Hits 35 Home Runs
I wrote about Montgomery as a later-round hitter sleeper for home runs because of his bat speed and power. The market seems to be torn on whether Montgomery was lucky or not after hitting 21 home runs in 284 plate appearances, especially considering his 25.9 percent home run per flyball rate (HR/F).
However, Montgomery possesses legitimate power while pulling the ball into the air. That's evident by Montgomery's 46.8 percent flyball rate, 51.4 percent pull rate, and 27.2 percent pulled air rate on Statcast. That, paired with Montgomery's 77 mph average bat speed and a 71.7 percent fast swing rate, shows his near-elite power skills.
Montgomery ranked 12th in bat speed and 11th in fast swing rate in 2025 among hitters with 100 swings. Hitters with similar elite bat speed metrics include Aaron Judge, Kurtz, and Jac Caglianone.
- Written by Corbin Young
Elly De La Cruz Has A 30-60 Season
Cincinnati Reds shortstop Elly De La Cruz put together a solid all-around campaign in 2025. He hit .264 with 22 home runs, 86 RBI, and 37 stolen bases across 162 games. However, there's real potential for De La Cruz to be even better this upcoming season. That's why a 30-home run, 60-stolen base campaign is certainly attainable for him in 2026.
Don't forget, De La Cruz was close to hitting these numbers during the 2024 season, when he hit 25 home runs and stole 67 bases. A large reason why his overall numbers were a bit down last year was because of a quad injury that he dealt with for most of the second half. But with the Reds shortstop now fully healthy, there is a real chance he does join the 30-60 club this year.
Just another typical Elly De La Cruz homer:
🔴 438 feet
🔴 114.5 exit velo pic.twitter.com/ulE76d0WWY— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) March 5, 2026
He has already stolen over 60 bases in a season in his career before and has the power to launch upward of 30 home runs. His average exit velocity (91 mph), barrel rate (10.2%), and bat speed (74.5 mph) all ranked in the upper half of the league last year. If he can get closer to his 2024 barrel rate (12.7%), De La Cruz could total a career-high in homers.
- Written by Joey Pollizze
Tatsuya Imai Is a Top-10 Fantasy SP
Imai is taken just inside the top-200 players overall by Yahoo! ADP, but he offers way more upside than that price suggests. Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) has a much lower strikeout rate than MLB, and Imai still generated elite swing-and-miss totals last season:
All of these pitches, save the seldom-used curve, would've ranked at least above average by SwStr% for their pitch type in MLB last season, giving Imai five quality weapons to work with. Imai also knows how to translate quality pitches into results on the field:
Imai struggled with his control early in his career, but he seems to have solved that issue. He doesn't fear the long ball with a 33.3 FB% to go with his 4.3% HR/FB, and his K% ranked in the 97th percentile among NPB hurlers. Imai limits walks, avoids homers, and generates strikeouts: everything you want a pitcher to do.
Pitchers don't control everything, but signing in Houston gives Imai a strong supporting cast. His 163 2/3 IP last season should also limit workload concerns in this modern age, so fantasy managers can expect a full season.
Imai's contract may have fallen below expectations, but he's betting on himself with opt-out clauses in his Houston deal. Fantasy managers should bet on him, too.
- Written by Rick Lucks
Junior Caminero is "the" Early-Round Bust, Finishes Outside of Top-8 at 3B
Let's halt the hype train and talk about a landmine. While Caminero won leagues last summer when he launched 45 HRs with a .264/.311/.525 line, the former top prospect could be a major bust in 2026.
According to NFBC, Caminero holds a 16.0 ADP, which makes him a borderline first-round pick. However, with the Rays now moving back to Tropicana Field, which is not the most hitter-friendly setting, his momentum could be halted.
Last season, Caminero posted an elite .313/.358/.595 at their temporary home at George M. Steinbrenner Field. On the road, he posted a much lower .218/.266/.477 line. While he launched 22 HRs at home and a slightly higher 23 on the road, his batting average could take a major dip in his new environment.
He should be a safe bet for 30 HRs, but a drop in batting average from .264 to the low .220s would make him a major disappointment at his price and could even push him towards the back-end of the top-10 at the 3B position.
- Written by Andy Smith
Jackson Merrill Finishes Outside of the Top-25 OF
I already know this will be the least popular of my bold predictions, as Merrill is being named as one of the biggest breakout candidates among many others in the industry. He’s being drafted as the 16th outfielder off the board in Yahoo leagues (and 14th in NFBC leagues), but many are expecting a top-10 season from the youngster.
For me, there’s just not enough track record there to get on board. Sure, he was great in 2024 with 24 homers, 16 steals, and a .292 batting average, but he followed that up with a complete flop in 2025. The 22-year-old hit .264 with 16 homers and one steal in 115 games. The one stolen base is the biggest concern, because what proof do we have that he will be willing to run again in 2026?
He’s fast with 79th percentile sprint speed, but that isn’t the type of blazing speed that guarantees someone to be a steals specialist.
Those in the Merrill fan club will point out that he dealt with a hamstring strain, a concussion, and a sprained ankle last season, and those could explain the lack of production. While that’s probably true to some extent, who’s to say that the Padres won't want to continue to cut back on unnecessary baserunning in 2026 to avoid Merrill getting banged up again?
There’s also the fact that his batting average dropped 28 points between the two seasons, which is what gave him so much of an edge in his rookie year. Without the top-tier average, the 24 homers and 16 steals aren’t the type of outlier numbers that would make him an elite fantasy asset. That would look more like a recent Michael Harris II season, where people continue to wait for another step forward that never seems to come.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Merrill perform as a top-20 outfielder, but I am firmly out on him as anything close to a breakout candidate. If he doesn’t get back to stealing any bases at all, then a finish outside the top-25 could be a harsh reality for many fantasy managers who drafted him in the early rounds.
- Written by Jeremy Heist
Kazuma Okamoto Bashes 35 HRs, 100 RBI
Okamoto was limited to 69 games after a freak collision with a hitter running down the first baseline resulted in a left elbow injury. And still the slugger bopped 15 HRs with a career-best triple slash of .327/.416/.598, logging just as many walks as strikeouts.
His blend of exceptional power and plate discipline in a top offense leaves me beyond intrigued. The raw pop trails that of Munetaka Murakami, but his discipline and offensive environment more than make up for that. And the pop is indeed still very real.
For no reason whatsoever here's a clip of Kazuma Okamoto taking a 99 MPH heater from Roki Sasaki and drilling it for a grand slam pic.twitter.com/kIwC0ggTyr
— Damon (@Damon98_) January 2, 2026
Over the last two years, Rogers Centre has been the fifth-friendliest venue for right-handed bats, per Statcast. This includes a 111 HR Park Factor, while Chicago’s Rate Field ranks 22nd (88). Only three teams scored more runs than Toronto’s 798 last year, and Okamoto is replacing the only key team loss since then (Bo Bichette). AL Rookie of the Year, eh?
- Written by Nick Mariano
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