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Andy Smith's spring training fantasy baseball risers, fallers and ADP trends. He identifies fantasy baseball sleepers for 2026 drafts, and players to avoid.
Spring training is one of the most exciting times for baseball fans. After a long winter and offseason filled with major signings and trades, the players are finally taking the field, which means Opening Day is right around the corner.
However, with spring games in full swing, several players have begun to rise and fall down draft boards. This raises the question: Should managers follow these trends? In this piece, I will highlight some of the highest risers and fallers (in terms of NFBC ADP) since the start of spring training and determine how managers should react in their draft rooms.
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Fantasy Baseball Risers
Jac Caglianone, OF, Kansas City Royals
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 195.5
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 169.1
Jac Caglianone let managers down in his first MLB stint but appears well-positioned for a major breakout in Year 2. In his debut, the former sixth overall pick held a modest .157/.237/.295 line over 62 games. He hit just seven home runs and carried a modest 22.4% K%. However, despite how talented a prospect is, it takes time to adjust to the big leagues.
This spring, Caglianone has wasted little time, going 6-for-15 with a home run and three doubles. He has generated an elite 66.7% hard-hit rate with an eye-catching 120.2 mph max exit velocity. Even in his rough debut, the raw power was there, as evidenced by the 12.0% barrel rate and 114.1 mph max exit velocity.
With the Kauffman Stadium fences moving in, the former top prospect has a 25+ HR outcome in his realm of possibility in 2026. He is worthy of a pick going just outside of the top-175. He has league-winning upside.
Matt McLain, 2B, Cincinnati Reds
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 195.6
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 162.2
The other hitter that has made major headlines this spring is Cincinnati's Matt McLain. McLain showed his upside in his debut season when he held a .290/.350/.507 line with 16 home runs and 14 stolen bases over his first 89 MLB games. However, a shoulder injury would keep him sidelined for the remainder of the 2024 season.
In his return in 2025, McLain endured significant growing pains, posting a modest .220/.303/.343-line but contained to showcase his five-category profile, hitting 15 home runs with 18 stolen bases. With a full offseason under his belt, the young infielder has looked like his rookie self in spring training.
The 26-year-old has been nothing short of elite in camp, posting a .553/.605/1.105 line with six home runs and two stolen bases over 13 games. Recent reports suggest McLain is slated to hit in the two-hole this season, which should improve his elite counting stats.
Finding a player with 25/25 upside at this point in the draft is rare. McLain was a top value pick, but could still outperform his recent rise in ADP, sitting at pick 162.
Matt McLain Delivering Elite Production in Spring Training https://t.co/HIcvGQt8Hi
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) March 14, 2026
Mick Abel, SP, Minnesota Twins
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 445.6
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 356.9
One of the pitchers who has begun to make flashes in camp is Mick Abel. His ADP in NFBC draft has shot up nearly 100 picks over the past two weeks, as he is now a worthy late-round selection in standard formats.
Abel was in competition for a starting role, but with Pablo Lopez (elbow) done for the season, Abel is in a good position to either open the season as the clear No. 5 option or in a long-relief role serving as a swingman.
The former top Phillies prospect has logged 13 1/3 innings to the tune of a 1.35 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. He has struck out 17 hitters while allowing just one free pass. While his 6.03 ERA during his first 39 MLB innings may not seem overly impressive, he was dominant at Triple-A, logging 98 1/3 innings with a 2.20 ERA and a 114:40 K:BB.
The Twins will provide him with all the opportunities to succeed as they enter 2026, a rebuilding year.
Jordan Lawlar, 3B, Arizona Diamondbacks
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 311.2
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 278.2
Jordan Lawlar was once a top prospect but has struggled to carve out a consistent role in the Arizona offense. Earlier in the offseason, when the Diamondbacks acquired Nolan Arenado to cover the hot corner, it appeared Lawlar was destined for another season at Triple-A Reno. However, the Diamondbacks have been moving Lawlar to center field, and he has looked quite comfortable there for most of the spring.
Through 12 games in spring training, Lawlar has performed very well, carrying a .282/.391/.615 line with four home runs. Over his first 42 games in Arizona (in 2023 and 2025), Lawlar did not go deep once. It is a great sign to see him finally tap into his raw power. Through 91 career games at Triple-A, Lawlar showcased upside, launching 18 home runs with 24 stolen bases while holding a .328 AVG.
Lawlar is lined up to the Opening Day center fielder, which makes him a prime late-round option even at his higher price tag. While he struggled in his first two seasons, he has the skill set to be a 20/20 player with an elite average.
Konnor Griffin, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 165.2
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 140.1
While other top prospects, Kevin McGonigle and JJ Wetherholt, have seen their ADPs rise since the start of camp, no prospect has moved up as much as Konnor Griffin. Griffin is now a top-140 pick and has even begun to slip into the top-120 in some drafts.
Griffin has yet to take a single at-bat at Triple-A but is now just one of two final non-roster invitees on the Pirates roster, suggesting he has a serious chance to make the Opening Day roster. In camp, Griffin has shown his raw power, launching four home runs (over 37 PAs) while posting an 110 wRC+.
In 2025, Griffin made his professional debut (122 games) and held a .333/.415/.527 line with 21 HRs and 65 SBs. While his upside is immense, his high price tag makes him tough to select in drafts. There is no guarantee he even makes the Opening Day roster, and even if he did, he could endure some early struggles like Caglianone did last season.
At a similar ADP, managers should pivot to Brandon Nimmo if they need a hitter or to Nathan Eovaldi if they need a pitcher. Paying this high a price for a prospect that has yet to play a single game in Triple-A is extremely risky.
Konnor Griffin Avoids Next Round of Roster Cutshttps://t.co/DJ3teq1tl2
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) March 17, 2026
Fantasy Baseball Fallers
Jeremy Pena, SS, Houston Astros
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 88.2
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 123.4
Jeremy Pena was a consensus top-100 pick in early drafts before suffering a fracture in his right finger. While he was unable to play in the World Baseball Classic, he has yet to be ruled out for Opening Day, and this drop in ADP seems quite dramatic.
Pena has already been participating in baseball activities, albeit limited to some extent. This past week, he began swinging a bat with one hand and was seen taking groundballs. Even if Pena were to miss the opening week of the season, he is an immense value at his recent price tag of 123.
In 2025, the 28-year-old had a breakout season, posting a .303/.363/.477 line with 17 home runs and 20 stolen bases. At this time of the year, any injury, even a minor one, will cause a significant reaction to a player's ADP. Savvy managers should take advantage of the drop and acquire a top-7 shortstop outside of the top 125 picks.
Carlos Estevez, RP, Kansas City Royals
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 110.4
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 122.4
While Pena's drop in ADP was due to injury, Estevez's is due to performance.
Carlos Estevez was one of the most valuable players at the position in 2025 (in relation to his preseason expectations). Estevez, who was likely on the waiver wire in most standard leagues and went on to lead the majors in saves (42) while holding a 2.45 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, all of which were some of the best marks of his nine-year MLB career.
Even before he took the mound in spring training, Estevez had serious concerns heading into 2026. Per Statcast, the right-hander generated a 3.69 xERA with a 10.6% barrel rate and a low 25.4% ground-ball rate, all of which suggests his ERA is sure to rise in 2026.
In camp, the reliver has seen his velocity drop significantly. In camp, his fastball (which averaged 95.9 mph last season) has clocked in at 89 mph, nearly six points lower than it was in 2025. While reports suggest he is still working his way back and slowly increasing his intensity, any prominent drop in velocity could set him up for even more regression.
He has already fallen a round in ADP and figures to continue to slide down draft boards. He is a fine option for saves as he should see 20+ opportunities in Kansas City. However, his ratios could take a major hit, making him a high-risk "one-category" contributor.
Josh Hader, RP, Houston Astros
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 113.4
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 131.8
The other Astro whose ADP fell in March is also due to injury. Josh Hader was delayed to start camp and was recently ruled out for Opening Day due to biceps inflammation. However, while he will miss time, like Pena, it doesn't appear Hader will be in much danger of missing any significant portion of the season.
Hader had already begun throwing on a mound and remains on track for a brief stint on the injured list. Even though he dealt with injuries last season, when active, Hader is still a legitimate closer and should see ample save opportunities on a competitive Houston club. In 2025, Hader logged 52 2/3 innings with a 2.05 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and a 36.9% K%.
This is an excellent buying opportunity for managers who want to secure a bona fide RP1 at a low-end RP2 cost.
Trey Yesavage, SP, Toronto Blue Jays
ADP Feb 15 - March 1 - 158.5
ADP March 2 - March 15 - 172.3
The final ADP faller we will spotlight is Trey Yesavage. While Yesavage's drop in ADP is not due to performance, it is more due ot his potential workload limitations. At the start of camp, sources have suggested that the Blue Jays will likely monitor his workload throughout the season and will likely place him on an inning limit. And now he is expected to start the season on the IL.
Yesavage has still only participated in simulated games and has yet to take the mound in a spring training contest. Yesavage made his professional debut in 2025 and logged 98 innings in them in the minor leagues before joining the Blue Jays in their World Series pursuit. In the postseason, he would begin to make a name for himself, striking out 39 batters in 27 2/3 innings.
While his raw upside is there, a limited workload will significantly hinder his 2026 production. The young right-hander now has an ADP with pitchers like Shota Imanaga and MacKenzie Gore, who figure to be high-floor SP3/SP4s, while Yesavage projects to be a high-risk SP4.
While he has more perceived upside, a limited workload will make him a volatile selection at this point in the draft.
Trey Yesavage to be on Strict Inning Limit This Season https://t.co/hSKjqCYiOu
— RotoBaller MLB (@RotoBallerMLB) February 24, 2026
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