10 Breakout Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Nick Mariano's Picks

March 18, 2026

Nick Mariano's 2026 fantasy baseball pitcher breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued starting pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

Fantasy titles are built on early-round foundations, sleepers, and of course, breakouts. Some of you may have a blurred line between "sleeper" and "breakout," but just know that we're looking at arms that have shown glimpses, with plenty more to offer. There are post-hype prospects and others who found another gear overseas to help us in our push for championships.

We're going to focus on pitchers here, but those interested in offense should also check out my hitter fantasy baseball breakouts. This column gives us the chance to discuss 10 arms that I believe will supply a fantastic value at their ADP thanks to their respective upsides. All ADP references are from NFBC drafts between February 20 and March 12.

Follow RotoBallerMLB on X for all of our league-winning content, and hit me up @NMariano53 with any further questions. There are so many pitchers to get excited about this preseason, but these are some of my favorites. Let's toe the rubber and get on with the show!

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Ian Seymour, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

ADP - 338

This is a “talent over opportunity” based on the current depth chart. Some of you do not play in formats that support stashing and waiting, but even those folks need to have Seymour on the watch list at least.

Whenever Seymour does get a starting opportunity, this writer will be there with bells on. The offseason additions of Nick Martinez and Steven Matz dampen initial enthusiasm, though I can’t see them holding their own (especially Matz). And Shane McClanahan is no sure thing to stay healthy either.

Seymour was largely limited to relief appearances last year, and Joe Boyle lurks as well, but the southpaw is more exciting. He’s already 27, so expectations in the minors are higher, yet he still blew past those with 266 Ks and an ERA around 2.50 in 226 1/3 IP over the last two years.

This was followed by a 3.63 ERA/1.18 WHIP (3.19 FIP) over 57 MLB IP, which supplied 64 Ks with his usual 43% fly-ball rate. Moving from George M. Steinbrenner Field back to the Trop will help that profile.

He only gave up two home runs over 37 1/3 IP on the road versus three in half the frames at home. All of those came in the same game against the Yankees as well, who were effectively the home team in their own spring ballpark.

And while most times we see starter repertoires get a boost out of the bullpen, he was far more effective as a starter (acknowledging small samples). He was strongest when facing a lineup the second time as an SP, allowing zero earned runs and six total hits (13:5 K:BB) over those 10 1/3 IP.

The lefty posted a 31:7 K:BB with a .208/.260/.281 slash line against with a 3.16 ERA over 25 2/3 IP when drawing a formal start, compared to a 33:12 K:BB, .231/.314/.364 line, and 4.02 ERA in 31 1/3 IP of relief.

It would be unethical not to point out that four of his five starts were on the road, and three of them came against the Guardians, Nationals, and White Sox. He had one gem and one flop against the Blue Jays as well. I’m erring on the side of talent, because few can do things like this!

Ian Seymour just struck out Shohei Ohtani, Will Smith, and Freddie Freeman in a row. That’s 2 hall of famers and the best catcher in the sport.

Seymour’s season ERA is down to 1.42 pic.twitter.com/sTTE3cS5kG

— Jake (@TBRaysCentral) August 2, 2025

Holding the AL pennant-winners to zero earned runs over seven innings for your longest start is what draws my focus. Likewise, he never issued more than two walks in any of his 19 appearances. The skill set is quite intriguing, and the K upside comes without the walk issues seen with Boyle.

Cade Cavalli, SP, Washington Nationals

ADP -  316

The 22nd overall pick in the 2020 Draft will toe the rubber on Opening Day after spending much of his career rehabbing, making 10 shorter starts last year that flashed why we’re so interested. Undoubtedly fueled by adrenaline, Cavalli hit 100.1 mph while making his first MLB start in nearly three years last August.

He suffered from right shoulder inflammation after making his MLB debut in 2022, and then he needed Tommy John surgery in March 2023. Then, a dead arm period limited him to three rehab starts in late ‘24 before he could finally build momentum and confidence in ‘25.

A fully operational arsenal should unlock closer to a strikeout per inning, and he does a great job of keeping the ball on the ground (55% GB rate last year). That was joined by an elite 4.4% barrel rate allowed and a miserable overall 3.8 degree launch angle. The knuckle curve, sinker, and changeup are brutal to get lift on.

This 2025-26 offseason is the first time he’s been able to focus on non-injury-related goals. That has resulted in a "turbo slurve" sweeper that allows him to attack horizontally, which should drastically increase the K potential and overall effectiveness against right-handed bats.

Find out what Cade Cavalli's been working on to improve his arsenal, so long as his mustache doesn't distract you. 😂 pic.twitter.com/JKDgGxdcLz

— Foul Territory (@FoulTerritoryTV) March 5, 2026

He’s enjoyed a great spring against a 7.5/10 opponent quality score (Double-A/Triple-A), allowing one hit over nine innings (9:2 K:BB). If he can sharpen that north-south attack with a well-located heater up top, the bats will flail.

Cody Ponce, SP, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP - 269

Last time we saw Ponce in the majors, he went 0-6 with a nasty 7.04 ERA over 38 1/3 IP for Pittsburgh in 2021. He’d posted respectable numbers as a Brewers prospect (he was a second-round pick of theirs in 2015) before being moved to PIT for Jordan Lyles. Big-league lefty bats enjoyed particular success (1.039 OPS) in the small 55 IP sample.

He was throwing around 93 mph with the heater, mixing in a cutter, curveball, slider, and changeup. There were then three fine NPB campaigns between 2022-24 before he dominated the KBO last year, posting a 1.89 ERA/0.94 WHIP and 252 Ks while going 17-1 in 180 ⅔ IP. This earned MVP honors.

The pessimists will note that Erick Fedde was a recent star KBO reclamation project, but even he posted a 3.30 ERA (3.89 xERA) in that first year back. And Fedde “only” had a 29.5% K rate there, while Ponce cruised to 36.2%.

He did so thanks to upping his velocity a few ticks (95.5 mph avg fastball) and could hit 97-98 as needed. Ponce has also pointed out that he sports "two types of cutters, two types of curveballs, two types of change-ups," thanks to guidance from Hyun-Jin Ryu, per an interview with Sportsnet.

At 6-foot-6, Ponce’s arsenal is now far better equipped to deal with MLB hitters. Will he post anything close to a 30% strikeout rate? No, probably not! But he has a history of plus control and groundball outcomes, and is a cheap avenue to Toronto’s winning ways. Let’s dig in.

Robby Snelling, SP, Miami Marlins

ADP - 302

Let’s start with the hook. As a 21-year-old, Snelling revamped his mechanics and went from a 13.8% K-BB rate with poor ratios to a 23.2% clip and a 2.51 ERA/1.11 WHIP (2.77 FIP) over 136 minor-league frames. He also went from a 43.8% ground-ball rate to 50.8%. Green flags!

Snelling is like Seymour in having the talent we want to target without an observable Opening Day role. The southpaw has a chance to leapfrog Thomas White due to the latter’s oblique injury, shelving him for a month.

And while it’s great to be optimistic about Miami’s rotation as individuals, the unit as a whole is on shaky ground. Sandy Alcantara, Eury Perez, Max Meyer, and Braxton Garrett all have significant injuries in their recent past. Chris Paddack is, well, Chris Paddack (5.35 ERA last year, 5.03 FIP, diminishing Ks, lots of HRs). Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers have been dealt.

Neither Snelling nor White is on the 40-man yet; however, arms like Ryan Gusto and Bradley Blalock are not difference-makers. Let’s look to the future and see if Snelling can force the issue with a hot start, especially before White can get back on the bump. I’d pick one of those two, where possible, as a solid stash.

Kyle Harrison, SP, Milwaukee Brewers

ADP - 410

Thanks to a little help from his friends (Hayden Birdsong), Harrison finally unlocked a kick change grip that works for him. We saw him utilize it well in an exhibition against Great Britain before mixing 11 of them into 60 total pitches against Seattle on March 8.

Kyle Harrison's changeup remains nasty. pic.twitter.com/t6Bmq7k6xc

— Curt Hogg (@CyrtHogg) March 13, 2026

Eight of his nine outs recorded were via strikeout. He got a whiff on 4-of-5 swings against the slurve and 3-of-4 on the kick change. Harrison also added a tick to his four-seamer and slurve, which is more than enough for us to perk up.

Milwaukee is another fragile rotation to boot. Harrison and Brandon Sproat are already needed with Quinn Priester (wrist) out and Logan Henderson (elbow) behind schedule. Aaron Ashby may be stretched out for April as well. Brandon Woodruff is no sure thing, and Jacob Misiorowski hasn’t yet had to use his flamethrower across a full MLB campaign.

Johan Oviedo & Connelly Early, SP, Boston Red Sox

ADP - 380 & 275

Oviedo missed all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, and then he suffered a serious right lat injury in March 2025 that further delayed his return. He would rattle off a healthy 3.57 ERA/1.21 WHIP with 42 Ks in 40 1/3 IP last year, with an ugly 4.92 FIP, 13.5% walk rate, and 4.73 SIERA behind it.

But there’s plenty to be written off for someone returning from such a lengthy absence. We’ll focus on his fastball velocity, averaging 95.5 mph (95.8 in ‘23 pre-injury), and hope that control can now follow after a healthy offseason. The said offseason saw him moved to Boston in the Jhostynxon Garcia deal.

The 28-year-old is now penciled in as Boston’s No. 5 arm, though many see him as a stopgap for Early and/or Payton Tolle. They are more popular breakout candidates, and I wouldn’t argue with it, but Oviedo deserves some shine as well.

He has a 9:3 K:BB with five hits allowed over eight scoreless spring frames, with the question being whether he can hold up over the long term for a starting role versus long relief. Maybe they utilize him in the rotation and then shift him over to become Garrett Whitlock’s apprentice.

If that happens, Early can build on the massive whiff potential that he flashed with an 11-strikeout MLB debut last September. The 29:4 K:BB over 19 1/3 IP led to a 0.91 FIP (2.33 ERA), and while Tolle also has the goods, they saw fit to keep him in the bullpen down the stretch while Early made starts.

River Ryan, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

ADP - 453

Sporting their usual SP depth, the Dodgers will look to guys like Ryan and Justin Wrobleski for rotation depth as needed. Those unfamiliar with Ryan can think of him as a Mason Miller-esque “what if” story. He can hit triple digits and has dominated the minor leagues, but needed Tommy John after four starts in the bigs. The velo comes with some devastating breakers.

Filthy slider by River Ryan! #DodgersST⚾🌵 pic.twitter.com/0fjPHMDTvZ

— SportsNet LA (@SportsNetLA) March 9, 2026

It’s been a long road. And after missing all of 2025, he’s struck out seven over 5 2/3 IP of one-run ball this spring. I realize this team seems to pull serviceable arms out of a hat at will, but don’t miss out on Ryan because you’re blinded by the big names up top.

The Dodgers are notorious for scaling back their starters and are already navigating shoulder fatigue with Blake Snell. This writer isn’t convinced that Roki Sasaki is a starter. Emmet Sheehan hasn’t gone a full MLB season. Gavin Stone suffered a setback with his shoulder in March.

As far as the big three, that’s no sure thing either. Yoshinobu Yamamoto just threw 211 IP, including the playoffs; Shohei Ohtani got 47 IP under his belt after not pitching ‘24, and Tyler Glasnow hasn’t ever thrown more than 135 IP in the majors.

Accordingly, Dave Roberts spoke back in February that the plan is to go with a six-man rotation early on. Even if Ryan starts as a swingman, we could get around 100 IP of strong work, just like we’re hoping out of these next fellas.

Grant Taylor, RP, Chicago White Sox

ADP - 345

Taylor rocked a 54:15 K:BB over 36 2/3 IP with six saves and 10 games finished as a rookie, but a bloated 4.91 ERA/1.42 WHIP on a bad team won’t generate many headlines. Read between the lines, and you’ll see a league-worst .420 BABIP matched a league-best 1.42 FIP (min. 30 IP).

I recognize that some of you are here with little care for relievers, let alone non-closing relievers. I would implore you to head over and read my piece about building FrankenAces out of overlooked RPs!

Perhaps he winds up closing if Seranthony Dominguez stumbles (though Jordan Leasure also finished 2025 very strongly), but he’s still a clear breakout as a multi-inning reliever if his sabermetrics emerge through greater volume. Even only 70 innings could yield 100+ Ks here, though the stated goal is 100 (150 Ks?).

Drew Anderson, RP, Detroit Tigers

ADP - 612

Anderson owns a ghastly 6.50 ERA/1.58 WHIP/14.7% K rate over 44 1/3 MLB IP scattered across five seasons and three teams. He then went to the NPB and saw far better results, though still couldn’t do much more than a 21% K rate. After two years there, he joined Detroit for Spring Training before ultimately taking an offer in the KBO.

He sprinkled in a kick change, upping the whiffs to a 31.9% clip but pushing through a 3.89 ERA/1.31 WHIP. That changed last year, when he decided to “throw it as much as [he] can.” This led to a 2.25 ERA/1.00 WHIP/35.3% K rate profile over 171 2/3 IP. His 245 Ks trailed Ponce by seven, but nine fewer innings make him the K/9 king among starters.

This was more than enough to prompt Detroit to give him a one-year deal worth $7 million. Now, you can easily argue that spamming a kick change against overmatched KBO hitters makes him a one-trick arm who can’t pull the same stunt on MLB hitters.

However, the ADP is effectively free, especially compared to Ponce. And he’s dazzling this spring with 11 scoreless innings (14:2 K:BB), which always helps. He’s another exciting long relief option for us to bulk up on, while carrying contingent SP value if someone goes down.

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