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Rick Lucks' 8 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Roman Anthony, Matt Strahm, Luis Robert Jr., and more.
Welcome to another round of MLB Bold Predictions from the MLB RotoBaller team! Several of my colleagues have already published some of their boldest takes, and now it's my turn to ramp up the boldness.
Notably, bold predictions aren't supposed to be likely outcomes. Instead, they're supposed to be wild prognostications with some statistical support, like a data-driven prediction taken to an extreme percentile.
Last year, I predicted that Emmanuel Clase would finish with under 20 saves (wrong, but right in spirit), Bryce Miller would not be a top-50 SP (true), and that Tomoyuki Sugano would outperform Roki Sasaki (also technically true). What have I cooked up this year? Let's find out!
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Roman Anthony Logs More PAs for Worcester than Boston
Anthony is a budding star and the youngest player on Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, but the fantasy attention he's receiving isn't warranted. He hit .292/.396/.463 with eight homers in 303 plate appearances (PAs), falling shy of a 20-HR pace. Anthony topped out at 18 homers on the farm, and his 31 FB% is too low to expect power improvement.
Anthony has no history of stealing bases, so he won't create fantasy value with his legs. That leaves batting average as the best way for Anthony to contribute, but his 27.7 K% makes him a risky bet to post a high average in 2026.
True, his 19.7 percent chase rate and 10.7 swinging strike percentage (SwStr%) didn't support a K% that high, but he was also passive at the plate with a 37.4 Swing%. Ultra-low Swing% guys consistently strikeout more than their chase rate and SwStr% suggest, and Anthony's 81.7 zone contact% (Z-Contact%) wasn't elite, either.
Anthony masked his K% with a .404 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) last season, but his .258 expected batting average (xBA) suggests he didn't deserve that mark. If his average is more than .260 but less than .290, the lack of power and speed will make Anthony a middling player.
That could prove problematic since Boston has other options. Ceddanne Rafaela is one of the league's best defensive center fielders; Wilyer Abreu is coming off a fantastic campaign; Jarren Duran was an All-Star as recently as 2024; and the club still wants Masataka Yoshida to earn his contract.
Optioning Anthony to Worcester allows Rafaela to play on the outfield grass while Abreu, Duran, and Yoshida (as DH) all receive regular playing time. Prospect growth isn't linear, and Anthony's current game lacks the upside of other Red Sox.
Matt Strahm Records at Least 25 Saves
Strahm is a solid lefty reliever, posting a 2.74 ERA and 2.77 expected earned run average (xERA) across 62 1/3 innings pitched (IP) with the Phillies last season. He occasionally featured in Philadelphia's ninth-inning committee mix over the years but never established himself as a true closer.
Now a Royal, Strahm's opportunity is here. His 27.3 K% and 7.8 BB% suggest the kind of dominance managers look for from closers, and he's the only guy in Kansas City's bullpen who offers it.
Carlos Estevez is the incumbent, but his shiny 2.45 ERA masked a 4.95 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) and 3.69 xERA in 66 IP. The 33-year-old wasn't dominant at all with a 20.1 K% and 8.2 BB%, and his 51.6 FB% is playing with fire in the ninth inning. The Royals are moving the fences in at Kauffman this year, likely meaning more homers allowed for Estevez.
Lucas Erceg is the other big name in Kansas City's pen, but his 3.95 xFIP and 3.83 xERA didn't match his 2.64 ERA in 61 1/3 IP either. The 30-year-old lost a tick of fastball velocity, and his 19.3 K% and 7.2 BB% don't scream ninth inning.
Alex Lange has ninth-inning experience, but lacks the control to consistently handle the role. That leaves Strahm as the only dominant reliever on the Royals, potentially giving him more save opportunities than anyone expects.
Tatsuya Imai Is a Top-10 Fantasy SP
Imai is taken just inside the top-200 players overall by Yahoo! ADP, but he offers way more upside than that price suggests. Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) has a much lower strikeout rate than MLB, and Imai still generated elite swing-and-miss totals last season:
All of these pitches, save the seldom-used curve, would've ranked at least above average by SwStr% for their pitch type in MLB last season, giving Imai five quality weapons to work with. Imai also knows how to translate quality pitches into results on the field:
Imai struggled with his control early in his career, but he seems to have solved that issue. He doesn't fear the long ball with a 33.3 FB% to go with his 4.3% HR/FB, and his K% ranked in the 97th percentile among NPB hurlers. Imai limits walks, avoids homers, and generates strikeouts: everything you want a pitcher to do.
Pitchers don't control everything, but signing in Houston gives Imai a strong supporting cast. His 163 2/3 IP last season should also limit workload concerns in this modern age, so fantasy managers can expect a full season.
Imai's contract may have fallen below expectations, but he's betting on himself with opt-out clauses in his Houston deal. Fantasy managers should bet on him, too.
Chandler Simpson Steals 100 Bases
The fantasy consensus is that Simpson is just another jackrabbit: the guy you don't plan to draft but take if your early picks don't give you the steals you need. Jackrabbits are often frowned upon since one injury means you've lost your core SBs, and they contribute literally nothing else.
Simpson isn't your average jackrabbit, though. He won't singlehandedly keep you competitive in steals, but he can win the category. His success rates are consistently excellent with high attempt volume.
In 2022, Simpson went 81-for-93 on SB attempts for an 87 percent success rate on the farm. In 2023, it was 94-for-109 (86 percent). In 2024, it was 104-for-121 (86 percent). Last season between the majors and minors, it was 63-for-78 (81 percent).
You're hoping for 40-50 steals from most jackrabbits, but Simpson can double that. Simpson also has a pristine batted-ball profile for a player with his skill set, hitting .295 as a Ray last season and consistently eclipsing .300 in the minors. He hits lots of grounders (59.4 GB% in MLB) with an above-average number of liners (24 LD%), limiting his flies to just 16.6 percent of his batted balls.
With Simpson's speed, that'll help him run sky-high BABIPs that wouldn't be sustainable for nearly anyone else. He also struck out at just a 9.8 percent clip as a Ray, backed by a 29.3 percent chase rate and 4.9 SwStr%, making him a legitimate plus-plus in average to go with the steals. Of course, high averages also increase Simpson's opportunities to steal.
Tampa hit Simpson leadoff for 300 of his 441 PAs, giving him a good chance to contribute runs scored as well. Leading off also translates to more PAs and SB chances. He doesn't have any power, but he stands out from jackrabbits who often struggle to make contact or hit for average.
Bo Bichette Hits .260 or Less With Less than 20 HR+SB
Bichette hit .311/.357/.483 with 19 HRs and four steals across 628 PAs with Toronto last season, clearing both benchmarks above. Fantasy managers seem to largely expect a repeat, but multiple factors are working against the 28-year-old in 2026.
First, Bichette hit a miserable .225/.277/.322 with four homers in 336 PAs in 2024. Injuries played a role in that performance, but we can't say he's been consistently good when 2024 was so disappointing.
Next, Bichette's 31 FB% was low, while his 11.8 percent HR/FB wasn't high enough to take advantage of more flies anyway. Per Statcast, Bichette would've hit 15 homers had he played every game at Citi Field in 2025, while Rogers Centre would've given him his actual mark of 19. There's not a lot of high-end power here.
Switching to Citi Field will hurt Bichette's average as well. Bichette's game is predicated on singles and avoiding strikeouts, and Citi Field is meaningfully worse for both. Righties like Bichette have a 93 Statcast singles park factor there vs. 101 for Toronto, while Citi inflates strikeouts (102) while Toronto suppresses them (91).
Bichette went 25-for-26 on SB attempts in 2021, permanently earning a reputation as a base thief. However, that was the only season he contributed a meaningful SB total with any degree of efficiency. He went just 4-for-7 last year, a rate that won't earn him a green light on a club with playoff aspirations like the Mets.
Bichette also needs to handle the expectations of a big contract in the pressure cooker of NY while learning a new position. It's impossible to know how that'll affect him, but it probably won't help his fantasy value.
Bichette's average is likely headed south, and he won't hit homers or steal many bases. A little bad luck from the BABIP gods, and Bichette could find himself with much lower fantasy value than his ADP suggests.
Harry Ford Steals at Least 25 Bases
For this to come true, three things need to happen. First, Ford needs to play. Second, he needs to hit. Third, he needs to run.
Playing time is probably the least bold of the three. Ford's primary competition is Keibert Ruiz, a former top prospect who is yet to establish himself as an MLB regular and is now 27. Ruiz would likely be running out of chances even if Washington didn't acquire an exciting 23-year-old like Ford.
Ford should also hit. He slashed .283/.408/.460 with 16 homers in 458 PAs at Triple-A last season, and the scouting report suggests a solid bat:
The offensive bar for catchers is fairly low, and league-average hit and game power should be more than enough for our purposes.
Finally, Ford needs to run. He didn't run much last season, going 7-for-11 on SB attempts. However, he went 23-for-28 (82 percent) on SB attempts in 2022, 24-for-32 in 2023 (75 percent), and 35-for-44 in 2024 (80 percent).
Washington is a very aggressive team, going 132-for-180 on SB attempts as a team last season. If Ford embraces the team's philosophy, he could steal more bases than fantasy managers have seen from a catcher since prime JT Realmuto.
Luisangel Acuna Steals More Bases than Luis Robert Jr.
Acuna didn't hit much for the Mets last season, slashing .234/.293/.274 with no homers in 193 PAs, though he did swipe 16 bags against a single caught stealing. However, he was much better in March and April when injuries forced him into regular playing time, hitting .288/.342/.356 before backsliding as a bench bat.
The White Sox may have taken notice, as they plan to make Acuna their everyday centerfielder and give him at least 500 PAs at the top of their order. Acuna flashed solid plate discipline (19.2 K%, 6.7 BB%) backed by solid peripherals (31.4% chase rate, 10% SwStr%), so he shouldn't be overwhelmed in an everyday role.
His .295 BABIP also appears primed for positive regression, as his 15.6 LD% was extremely low. He was never below 16.9 on the farm, with multiple stops above 20 percent. Playing time with a higher average will let Acuna run more. He stole at least 40 bags in every full MiLB season of his career, and could well do so again in The Show.
Robert went 33-for-41 on SB attempts last year, but his .223/.297/.364 line with 14 homers over 431 PAs wasn't much better than Acuna's. He particularly struggled against right-handed pitching, slashing just .211/.272/.329 with a 28.3 K% in 318 PAs last year. That could inspire the Mets to consider a short-side platoon role for Robert, if these struggles linger, a role that would torpedo his fantasy value.
Unlike Acuna, Robert's plate discipline is a major weakness. Last year's 26 K% and 9.3 BB% probably undersell how bad his 15.7 SwStr% was, and the latter mark was somehow an improvement over 2024's 17.5 percent rate. Robert's Z-Contact% declined slightly year-over-year (from 81.8 to 80.9), however, so he wasn't really much better at making contact.
Robert also hits a lot of flies (41.8 FB% last year), which isn't great when more of them are harmless pop-ups (13.2 IFFB%) than homers (12.3 percent HR/FB). The flyball profile also contributed to his .274 BABIP, putting further downward pressure on his batting average and limiting SB opportunities.
Robert will steal bases to the extent he plays, but his questionable plate discipline, uneven performance vs. RHP, and fly-ball-heavy profile may limit his opportunities.
The Chicago White Sox Will Win the AL Central
The White Sox aren't favored to win the AL Central, but Minnesota is bad while the Tigers (Tarik Skubal), Royals (Bobby Witt Jr.), and Guardians (Jose Ramirez) are all thin outside of one superstar talent. This pick is based on realistic upside scenarios that could make the White Sox a more complete team than any of their rivals.
Acuna, a high-end speed threat, was discussed above. Colson Montgomery and Munetaka Murakami each have 40 HR upside, Kyle Teel and Edgar Quero could form one of the league's better catching tandems, and Chase Meidroth and Miguel Vargas should be solid. The offense could be better than people expect.
Likewise, Chicago's pitching could exceed expectations. Shane Smith looked good last season. Seranthony Dominguez should strengthen a bullpen that already includes strikeout artists Grant Taylor and Jordan Leasure, providing late-inning stability. Anthony Kay has upside after looking good in NPB, and Rule V pick Jedixson Paez has excellent command of multiple secondaries.
To be clear, a lot has to go right for this pick to come true, but this roster has intrigue and upside that it lacked just two seasons ago. Stranger things have happened.
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