6 Fantasy Baseball Bold Predictions - Thunder Dan's 2026 Picks

March 19, 2026

Thunder Dan's 8 fantasy baseball bold predictions for the 2026 MLB season, including predictions for Kazuma Okamoto, Matt McLain, Jeff McNeil, more.

'Tis the season for bold predictions! I don't love making them, but every year it seems like you all like reading them a bit more than the year before!

I've had some tell me my predictions aren't often "bold enough," but I really like trying to make mine a bit more realistic. I'm not sure it does anyone any good for me to say, "Hitter X is going to hit 70 home runs or steal 50 bases." Each prediction is rooted in a legitimate optimism in each of these players' outlooks for 2026, but with a healthy dose of "if everything goes just right," as well.

You can also read other bold predictions from RotoBaller's MLB team as part of our yearly Bold Predictions series.

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Japanese Hitters Rake: Munetaka Murakami and Kazuma Okamoto Combine for 60+ HR

We don't often get two Japanese sluggers coming over to the big leagues in the same season of this caliber.

Kazuma Okamoto is just 29 years old and joins the defending AL Champs to round out what should be a pretty loaded lineup. He averaged 33.1 home runs over his first seven seasons in the NPB before hitting just 15 in half a season due to an elbow injury.

Okamato makes a lot of contact, unlike a lot of traditional power hitters, striking out over 20% of the time in just one of those seasons. Most projection systems have him at between 22 and 25 home runs this season, but with his superior hit tool, solid power, and great lineup protection, I think he's much more likely to push for 30 bombs.

Munetaka Murakami GRAND SLAM 😤 pic.twitter.com/S2LEWWNdT0

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 10, 2026

The 26-year-old Murakami is a different style of hitter, with more pop in his bat, but also more strikeouts. The lefty hit 56 bombs back in 2022 and was on pace for another big HR total last year, clubbing 22 in just 56 games, but was limited by a lingering oblique injury.

Managers are being scared away by his 28-29% strikeout rates over the last three seasons, but that's not stopping folks from drafting Kyle Schwarber, is it?

Yes, the pitching that these hitters will be facing will be better, but the NPB is known as being a dead-ball league that suppresses home runs. Both guys are in the prime of their careers and won't likely have much of an adjustment period. They're projected to be everyday players who will hit in the middle of their respective lineups.

You can draft either of them at a pretty solid discount - around pick 200 - and both will open the season with dual eligibility at 1B and 3B. While other managers are hesitant about their ability to adapt to MLB, be greedy and draft these sluggers with confidence.

Cade Cavalli Finishes as a Top-50 Starting Pitcher

Sometimes you just have to plant your flag on some players when you do as much content as I do for fantasy baseball. Last year, it was pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach, Cristopher Sanchez, and Bryan Woo - and at least two of those worked out pretty well.

But this year, my favorite "breakout" is a pitcher who is only just recently starting to see his ADP on the rise - and it's still well below pick 300 in standard formats.

Yes, that would be the Washington Nationals' Opening Day starter, Cade Cavalli! I've already written about him here as a post-hype sleeper, and here as an emerging pitcher who checks ALL the boxes!

Cavalli has the profile of a front-of-the-rotation pitcher, so for those who have tried to say he's one of the worst opening day starters in the league, just you wait and see!

He only struck out 18% of hitters last season, but he had an elite chase rate and a strong swinging strike rate. He also had really good batted ball results with a barrel rate in the 95th percentile and a 55% ground ball rate.

He's not just a hard-thrower; he's got a nasty curveball, hard sinker, and quality changeup. This isn't some 22-year-old rookie pitcher; Cavalli has been around and worked his way back from TJ surgery. He's got quality stuff and the added maturity that comes with being around the big leagues for almost ten years.

Ceddanne Rafaela and Matt McLain both go 25/25

Matt McLain is hitting .512 this spring with six home runs, so I am not going against the grain with this pick. His ADP is on the move, for sure, but I think he's still worthy of investing in this season. I was a year early on his bounceback, perhaps, as I had him in my bold predictions last season, only to watch him hit .220 with 15 home runs and 18 steals.

It's not that big of a stretch to predict that McLain hits another 10 home runs this season if he returns to form with his contact skills, especially when he's playing his home games in Coors Field East (aka Great American Ballpark). He has 93 sprint speed, and more hits should lead to more stolen base opportunities.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits a LONG home run for Team Netherlands! pic.twitter.com/vQPcywUki5

— World Baseball Classic (@WBCBaseball) March 4, 2026

Speaking of sprint speed, Rafaela checks in with a 92 per StatCast and is arguably one of the best defensive center fielders we've seen in the last decade. He stole 20 bases last season, while hitting only .249, so the same logic applies here - a better batting average would lead to more stolen base opportunities.

Rafaela was one of the hottest hitters in baseball in June and July, slugging 11 of his 16 home runs in a torrid hot stretch. He trimmed his K% by 5% from year one to year two, and then by another 6% from year two to year three (last season). With his contact rates going up and the power he possesses, there's no reason to think he can't take the next step towards being a bona fide dual-threat.

As a pull hitter, the short porch in left field at Fenway Park certainly favors his power, too.

Tatsuya Imai and Cody Ponce Finish 35 Spots Ahead of ADP

Again, two pitchers about whom I have previously written some more in-depth content here at RotoBaller in the past few weeks. You can find Imai's full profile in this "breakouts" piece and Ponce in my post-hype sleepers.

Imai comes with a much stronger pedigree, having dominated the NPB the last three seasons and having eight years of professional pitching experience under his belt. His spring training results have been quite good, backing up the idea that he'll be ready to hit the ground running and make an impact on day one. He has a unique arsenal of pitches, including a high-velocity fastball, "reverse slider," changeup, and splitter.

The fact that MLB hitters haven't seen him before is certainly working in his favor, as is the fact that he's a polished, experienced pitcher who already knows how to pitch.

There's that Tatsuya Imai arm-side slider. Splitter was working today as well. pic.twitter.com/k4BxHvC70u

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) March 5, 2026

Imai is the 69th pitcher off the board right now in NFBC drafts with an ADP of 175. So when I say he'll beat that price by 35 spots, I mean the positional rank, putting him inside the top 35 for the season. Yeah, I think he could be that good.

Ponce is more of a wild card, but comes at an incredibly cheap price tag (ADP of 309 last two weeks). He has no track record of success at the big league level, as he struggled in his first two seasons at the big league level before heading overseas. He had a few solid seasons in the NPB, but last year was outstanding in the KBO, going 17-1 with a sub-two ERA, sub-one WHIP, and a 36% K%.

He doesn't need to be that good to be a really good value in drafts. He just needs to be better than most teams' third starters, which, with increased velocity on his fastball and a really good changeup that he learned in Korea, could certainly happen. As the 113th pitcher off the board, a successful finish for him is finishing inside the top 72 for the season. He has the frame and durability to eat innings for Toronto, while also turning in some quality ratios.

Sutter Health Hero: Jeff McNeil Finishes as a Top-15 Second Baseman

What's the weakest position this year in fantasy baseball? Second base, right? So why pay a premium for someone like Ketel Marte or Jazz Chisholm when we can try to find some value later in the draft?

Positional scarcity is a real thing, but I don't like being forced to take a player early just because the position they play is weak. I'm perfectly content to go after a tier 2 guy like McLain, Rafaela (who has 2B eligibility on Yahoo), or Luke Keaschall. And if all of those guys are gone, then I'm going to wait as long as I can to go after some late-round values.

One of those players is Jeff McNeil, who, after eight seasons as a super-utility player for the Mets, finally gets a change of scenery as he will suit up for the Athletics this season and is penciled in as their starting second baseman against RHP.

McNeil is a career .305 hitter, though his average dropped into the .230 to .240 range the last few seasons. He's still making good contact, whiffing just 11% of the time over the last two seasons. And he's hit 10 or more home runs in three straight campaigns.

He couldn't possibly be getting a better ballpark upgrade this year, as the Athletics temporary home, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, had the second-best park factor (tied with Camden Yards) for left-handed hitters last season behind only Coors Field.

Can McNeil get us 15 home runs, 60 RBI, and 70 runs scored while hitting in what should be a pretty good Athletics lineup? I think so, and those numbers would put him in contention to finish in the top half of MLB second basemen. His ADP is around 360 right now - it's no risk and all reward!

The Pittsburgh Pirates Win the NL Central

Paul Skenes repeats as the NL Cy Young to lead the rotation, while Bubba Chandler and Braxton Ashcraft become household names and turn in solid fantasy seasons. Mitch Keller is his reliable old self, while Hunter Barco emerges as the fifth starter and the lefty that the Bucs need to contend.

Meanwhile, Konnor Griffin starts the year at Triple-A, but is called up by May 1 after hitting .350 with 10 HRs and SBs in his first month at Triple-A. Ryan O'Hearn, Brandon Lowe, and Oneil Cruz turn in very solid fantasy seasons as the Pirates increase their run production by 1.5 runs per game from last season.

Dennis Santana finishes with 30+ saves, and the Pirates add to their bullpen at the deadline with some more solid relievers. They ultimately lose in the divisional series, but PNC Park is finally packed on a nightly basis all summer long.

I mean...is all of this too far-fetched? If there was ever a year that the Pirates could do it, it just might be this one! I promise this is not just wishful thinking; the Bucs are loaded with more talent than they have had in 10 years. Now, we just have to speak it into existence!

Enjoy the season, ya'll...and thanks for reading! Good luck!

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