Post-Hype Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Breakout Candidates for 2026

March 15, 2026

Starting pitchers ready to break out in 2026 fantasy baseball to target late in drafts. Thunder Dan Palyo highlights post-hype SP with a high ceiling.

Getting to the big leagues is no easy task, even for the most talented prospects. And once players get the call to the majors, they struggle to stick more often than not.

But we love hyping up young, talented players regardless. We often place unrealistic expectations on highly touted young players, and when they fail or suffer setbacks, they are quickly replaced with another exciting young player who seems ready to break out.

But growth is rarely linear, and sometimes it takes several chances for players to finally figure it out and realize their full potential. I'll be digging into some "post-hype" starting pitchers who could be in store for a breakout season - just a bit later than they were expected to originally (and some much later than others!) All ADP referenced in this piece is from NFBC drafts as of February 20.

Shane Baz, Baltimore Orioles

ADP: 201

Baz, like all the pitchers we will discuss in this article, was once an early-round draft pick. He was taken in the first round by my Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2017 and eventually traded to Tampa Bay in arguably one of the worst trades in franchise history, as Pittsburgh also shipped off Tyler Glasnow in that deal for...Chris Archer.

But Baz's tenure in Tampa was disrupted by an arm injury that required Tommy John surgery after he tossed only 40 innings between the 2021 and 2022 seasons. He worked his way back to the majors in 2024 and posted a 3.06 ERA over 79 innings, but saw his strikeout rate dip to just 21.6%.

So last year was supposed to be his breakthrough campaign, but it was a mixed bag of results. He made 31 starts and covered 166 innings, saw his strikeouts start to come back (24.8% K%), and saw his fastball velocity return (97 mph).

But he posted an ERA of 4.87 and a WHIP of 1.33, which did fantasy managers' ratios no favors. It's easy to blame the home ballpark for some of his home run struggles, since George M. Steinbrenner Field ended up being a hitters' paradise and Baz allowed 18 of his 26 home runs there. His ERA was a full two runs higher at home than on the road, too.

If we want a more statistically grounded piece of evidence that the ERA was inflated, look no further than Baz's xERA of 3.88.

Shane Baz's 2Ks in the 4th.

6Ks thru 4. pic.twitter.com/hc1WyR15SD

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 26, 2025

His stuff is nasty, there's no debating it. His 107 Stuff+ grade last season was the best of his career since his debut (111), and his knuckle-curveball grades out really well (125) and had some solid results last year (.193 xBA, 27% Whiff%). He ditched his slider for a cutter last season, which I like because he throws it harder and it gives him another pitch that is significantly slower than his fastball and faster than his curveball, providing some velocity differential.

A change of scenery in Baltimore feels like a good thing for Baz, quite literally (the ballpark upgrade is nice, and the pitching staff helped turn Trevor Rogers around last season). He's been lights out so far this spring with a 39% K% through his first few appearances. This is a pitcher with a pedigree and all the talent in the world, yet we can still get him at a discounted price. I'm here for the Baz breakout!

Cody Ponce, Toronto Blue Jays

ADP: 277

Cody Ponce's story is a pretty cool one. He was once a second-round pick of the Milwaukee Brewers over 10 years ago, cut his teeth in the big leagues with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and then headed overseas, where he spent three seasons pitching in Japan (NPB) before spending 2025 in Korea (KBO).

Is a 31-year-old pitcher too old to be considered a post-hype breakout? I really don't care! Ponce has only 55 innings of MLB experience, so he qualifies in my book, and I'm the one penning this article, so there!

Toronto decided to hand Ponce 10 million dollars per season over three years to return to the big leagues after he had one of the best seasons in KBO history. He went 17-1 over 180 innings while posting an ERA of 1.89 and a WHIP of 0.94.

He whiffed 36% of the hitters he faced while walking only 6%. Naturally, we can't take those stats at face value, but I don't care what league you're pitching in - those are some pretty impressive numbers.

So what we have to look at instead of the stats is the arsenal of pitches. Ponce is a big guy at six-foot-six and 255 pounds, but he was only averaging around 93 mph on his four-seamer before heading overseas. Now, he's sitting at 96 with his heater and has added several ticks of velocity to his entire arsenal of pitches.

So far from what we've seen on Ponce this spring, he's throwing a hard cutter, changeup (a "kick change" that he reportedly learned in Korea), a slider, and a curveball. It's only been a few innings, but a 33% K% without walking a batter is what we want to see, and it backs up the K-BB% we saw from him in Korea.

Cody Ponce’s (Spring) Blue Jays debut:

1 IP | 0 H | 0 ER | 2 Ks

He hit 97 MPH on the FB 🤯 pic.twitter.com/DjYTvvJG4j

— Toronto Blue Jays (@BlueJays) February 25, 2026

There have been others who followed this path to success in the past (Merrill Kelly comes to mind), and we shouldn't write off Ponce just because he was dominating against inferior competition. He, like Tatsuya Imai, could be a free agent import who is ready to hit the ground running and is more of a polished pitcher than a lot of the other younger "projects" you'll find in the same ADP range.

Cade Cavalli, Washington Nationals

NFBC ADP: 373

One pitcher who didn't make the cut for my Stuff+ breakouts piece is Cavalli, even though he posted a 108 Stuff+ grade last season. He simply didn't meet the innings requirement, as he threw only 48 2/3 innings across 10 starts for the Nationals in 2025.

Cavalli is anything but a traditional prospect. He's already halfway to his 28th birthday with just 53 innings of big league experience. It was a long road back to the big leagues for Cavalli after he debuted in 2022. He missed the entire 2023 season with a torn UCL and had Tommy John surgery.

Cade Cavalli's 4Ks thru 2. 😷 pic.twitter.com/jkVBJjH0eP

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 6, 2025

The strikeout highlights above showcase the best of all of Cavalli's stuff. He can pump the four-seamer up around 100 mph, features a hard 89-90 mph changeup, and a knee-buckling curveball that's faster than most at 86 mph, but still drops 50 inches.

It's a solid five-pitch arsenal, with no pitch registering higher than a 30% usage. The hard sinker helps get groundballs, and there's average or better movement on just about every pitch.

His 18.3% K% last year was too low for a guy with a solid 12.5% SwStr% and such good stuff. But a 54.8% GB% is encouraging, and a 4.4% Barrell% is further proof that he was rarely hit hard.

Cavalli's command will ultimately be the factor that either separates him from the pack or keeps him from achieving his full potential. But you're not finding a more exciting profile among other starting pitchers after pick 350. Well, other than maybe this next guy!

Mick Abel, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 460

Abel is the youngest in the group, just 24 years old. He was a first-round pick of the Phillies in 2020 and worked his way through the minors rather quickly, making his Triple-A debut at the end of the 2023 season. After flashing some impressive strikeout numbers in the minors, Abel made a pretty big splash in his big league debut, whiffing nine Pirates over six shutout frames last May.

But he wasn't able to stick in the rotation, as he allowed seven home runs over a three-start span in June. Ultimately, he was dealt to the Twins at the deadline for closer Jhoan Duran. He was crushed in his first two outings in Minnesota after being called up in late August, but ended his season the way he started it - with a gem as he spun six shutout innings with nine strikeouts against his former team.

Abel has an elite fastball in terms of velocity, but it was getting crushed at times last season. Six of the eight home runs he allowed were on the fastball, which finished with a .570 xSLG. He was struggling with command, his biggest issue throughout his minor league career, as well as with double-digit walk rates nearly every season.

He made some adjustments in Minnesota in the final few months, adding a sweeper with a lot more horizontal movement than his usual slider and drastically increasing his changeup usage. So far this spring, he's leaned into the slider a bit more, but he has thrown all six pitches and, most importantly, is throwing strikes AND getting whiffs.

The velocity on his heater is up a tick and on the slider, too, which looked sharp in his three-inning domination of the Braves in which he struck out six.

Mick Abel, 99mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/HzS0FqxPmd

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 1, 2026

He's now sitting at a 54% K% through his first six innings this spring without issuing a walk. No one is saying that's sustainable, but we'd be foolish not to move this guy up our draft boards because he's oozing potential. With Pablo Lopez (elbow) out for the season, the Twins are going to have to lean on their depth in the rotation.

Even if Abel doesn't start the season in the rotation, he's shown enough flashes of dominance that he's well worth stashing in the late rounds. All it would take is an injury or someone like Simeon Woods Richardson (who's looked bad this spring) to stumble a bit and open up an opportunity for Abel.

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