
Andrew Ball fantasy football predictions for wide receivers in 2025. Will Jerry Jeudy, Terry McLaurin, George Pickens, Chris Olave, and Tetairoa McMillan boom or bust this season?
It's the fifth round and you're on the clock. You've allocated several of your top picks to running backs and a quarterback or a tight end. Wide receiver is a massive need.
But you look at the available list, and there are warts about every wide receiver. Who is getting the click?
Let's sort through some of the middle-round receivers, look at their pros and cons, and determine whether they're due for a boom or bust season in 2025.
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Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
Players who hold out (or hold in) of training camp have a lengthy history of underperforming. However, there are expectations. Ja'Marr Chase was the WR1 last season despite sitting out all of training camp. Even so, it was a rough first couple of weeks for the All-Pro. Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 1,357 yards and 12 touchdowns after his contract dispute in 2019.
Just last season, CeeDee Lamb and Dak Prescott struggled with route timing to begin the season. It wasn't until Week 6 that Lamb turned his campaign around and started consistently seeing double-digit targets. Brandon Aiyuk had one startworthy game in seven attempts before an injury prematurely ended his season. Injuries can be another concern for players missing practice.
Jayden Daniels and his WR1 Terry McLaurin, whose hold-in continues. pic.twitter.com/koSbvdVS5f
— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) August 12, 2025
Hold in aside, Terry McLaurin has an uphill battle to replicate his 2024 stat line. The 29-year-old scored 13 times last season, one shy of his total in the previous three seasons combined. Jayden Daniels' arrival was a significant contributing factor. McLaurin had Sam Howell, Taylor Heinicke, and Alex Smith throwing him the football before. Daniels helped Washington finish drives, but he didn't actually involve McLaurin more in the offense.
His 23.3% target share was almost exactly his career average (23.4%). He caught 82 passes, one more than his 17-game career average. It's a similar story with his 17-game receiving yards average. An 11.11% touchdown rate isn't sustainable. It's time for some quick math.
Take McLaurin's career touchdown average (6.33) and apply it to his 2024 stat line. That would shave 40 points of his total, taking him from WR16 in PPR points per game to WR31. With redzone threat Deebo Samuel Sr. now on the roster (through the air and on the ground) and McLaurin missing camp, slashed touchdown production is well within the realm of possibilities.
Verdict: BUST
George Pickens, Dallas Cowboys
Prescott is the best quarterback George Pickens will play with.
That's not exactly a high bar to clear: Pickens has been on the receiving end of throws from Kenny Pickett, Justin Fields, and late-career Russell Wilson. The latter's patented "moon ball" helped Pickens pick up 900 yards on 59 receptions, but it also furthered his reputation as a one-trick pony. It didn't help that the nine route was his most run route.
Pickens is far more than a jump-ball winner. Matt Harmon, of Reception Perception, notes that Pickens has improved his win rate versus man coverage all three seasons of his professional career. He's outstanding against press coverage and is getting open more on the short-area routes.
Dallas Cowboys WR George Pickens 2024 #ReceptionPerception Profile is up on the site 👀
Pickens hit career-best marks last season:
- 72.8% success rate vs. man coverage
- 77.6% success rate vs. press (83rd percentile)There were some low moments, as we all know, but overall,… pic.twitter.com/Kj5yOXsz6X
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) June 30, 2025
Pickens is the best WR2 Dallas has rostered since then-rookie Lamb paired up with Amari Cooper. It comes at a time when the Cowboys project to have both a mediocre defense (which could be even worse if they don't pay Micah Parsons) and a lack of top-end talent on the running back depth chart. The stars are aligning for a pass-happy Dallas offense.
That, and Pickens playing for a new contract this offseason, should keep the former Georgia Bulldog motivated. In a run-heavy Pittsburgh offense, Pickens showed signs of laziness on some snaps.
Prescott's processing speed is one of his best attributes. He'll read defenses and correctly find the open wide receiver, a big reason why his tight ends have always been heavily targeted, and other wide receivers have eaten. Remember Michael Gallup's 1,107-yard season in 2019?
Verdict: BOOM
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
How improved is the league's worst defensive unit? The Panthers allowed 31.4 points per game and allowed the most points in league history last season. Injuries played a large part in this. The loss of Pro Bowl defensive tackle Derrick Brown and a 3-4 defensive scheme gave opposing running backs a clear path to chunk plays.
The Panthers consistently played from behind, but it wasn't until late in the season that Bryce Young started to put the pieces together and display promise as a franchise quarterback. Negative game scripts led to positive fantasy points in the Carolina passing game. They were even passing more often than the league average during neutral game scripts.
Now, they've added a true alpha wide receiver. Undrafted wideout Jalen Coker outplayed first-round pick Xavier Legette during their rookie seasons. Old man Adam Thielen was called upon to be the team's top target. Tetairoa McMillan fixes those problems. The eighth-overall pick was a dominant collegiate receiver at Arizona as the only FBS receiver to top 1,300 yards in 2023 and 2024.
Reports from training camp and a brief preseason appearance have Carolina fans buzzing about his potential.
Bryce Young goes up top to Tetairoa McMillan for the big gain!
CLEvsCAR on @NFLNetwork
Stream on @NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/R6FwKTnAjm— NFL (@NFL) August 8, 2025
There are a lot of potential shootouts on Carolina's schedule. Nine of the team's 17 opponents finished as a bottom-half scoring defense last year, plus Miami's injury-depleted secondary is on the docket in Week 5. We have to hope that Young continues to develop into a multi-year starter.
Verdict: BOOM
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns
It's Jerry Jeudy and everyone else.
That's the sentiment coming from Cleveland's training camp. The other receivers, like Cedric Tillman and Diontae Johnson, are far behind Jeudy in the target pecking order.
Despite finishing as the WR12 last season, thanks to a blistering end to the season, Jeudy has seen his average draft position depressed by Cleveland's iffy quarterback room. It's the same for every Browns' skill player, like tight end David Njoku.
However, 40-year-old Joe Flacco is a lot like one of the quarterbacks he's replacing on Cleveland's roster. He'll throw a lot of interceptions (double-digit picks in every season he's started 10 or more games) but will sling it enough to support a bona fide WR1. Amari Cooper single-handedly put fantasy managers in the championship game in 2023, Flacco's previous Cleveland stint.
Josh Downs was a PPR lineup lock in games Flacco started for Indianapolis last season.
2024 Leaders in Receptions [Week 12-on]@FantasyPtsData
62 - Trey McBride
61 - N/A
60 - N/A
59 - N/A
58 - N/A
57 - N/A
56 - N/A
55 - N/A
54 - Ja'Marr Chase
53 - N/A
52 - N/A
51 - Puka Nacua, DJ Moore, Jerry Jeudy
50 - Amon-Ra St. Brown— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) August 14, 2025
Here's the big hiccup: The Browns have the second-hardest strength of schedule, primarily due to being in a division with Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati, plus cross-division matchups with the NFC North. This will help Jeudy at the beginning of the season as Cleveland plays from behind to attempt to keep pace with the Bengals, Ravens, Packers, and Lions.
But how long will that last? When the losses inevitably pile up, will Kevin Stefanski and Cleveland's decision makers push the youth movement and see what they have in Dillon Gabriel or Shedeur Sanders? Or Kenny Pickett gets a shot? None of those options is good for Jeudy's value.
Jeudy should get off to a hot start, possibly inside WR1 territory. Come midseason, he may be the most obvious sell-high trade candidate.
Verdict: BOOM...TO START
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
The vibes are bad in New Orleans. Planning to start Spencer Rattler at quarterback is a bad idea.
Spencer Rattler is about to be a Week 1 NFL starter — whew pic.twitter.com/Wl4jzQSwhZ
— Anthony Amico (@amicsta) August 10, 2025
The fifth-round sophomore started six games as a rookie, ending with twice as many turnovers as touchdowns on a 57% completion rate. Most of his starts came without Chris Olave on the field (his second pass attempt ever resulted in an Olave concussion). All of his starts came without New Orleans' most explosive receiver, Rashid Shaheed.
Rattler and Olave had one other game together, at least until the former was benched for Jake Haener. Olave ended with eight catches for 107 yards in what would be his final full game of the season. So, it can be done, but there won't be any consistency about it.
Olave's career hasn't panned out as expected. He's opened it with quiet back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. Quiet, in the sense that he scored just four and five times, respectively, and hasn't finished as a fantasy football WR1 like the others in his draft class (Drake London and Garrett Wilson) have. Even his younger Ohio State teammate, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, has a WR1 season under his belt.
Olave scored once in eight games last season, and the touchdowns will be hard to come by again. Because of the inexperience and talent at quarterback, whether it's Rattler or rookie Tyler Shough, the Saints project as one of the league's worst offenses. At least Olave is appropriately priced as a low-end WR3 this season.
There's been a recent groundswell of Olave being a post-hype sleeper this season due to volume and head coach Kellen Moore's fast offensive philosophy. His teammate, who has better breakaway potential with the football in his hands, is available in the 12th round. If you're insisting on drafting a New Orleans Saint, Shaheed is the most cost-efficient.
Verdict: BUST
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