7 Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers and Busts: Draft Targets, Avoids (2025)

Phil's running back sleepers and busts for 2025 fantasy football. His top draft targets/values and fades/busts at RB, including Tank Bigsby, Joe Mixon, and more.

The relentless pace of the offseason continues as we progress through August. News is emerging on a daily basis from all 32 training camps, while preseason matchups are underway. Those developments will continue to provide valuable information that can be utilized toward constructing your draft strategies. They also fuel the decisions that you make while assembling each roster.

That includes the importance of targeting running backs that could become assets, and bypassing other backs who should be avoided at their current draft positions. Your prospects of building a highly productive roster will rise if you have determined which category applies to the backs that will remain available as you advance through your drafts.

This article will examine a group of running backs that are primed to outperform their current ADPs, followed by backs whose inability to reach expectations could lead you to frustration. Current ADPs from FFPC leagues were used in the assessments of each player, courtesy of RotoBaller.

Fantasy Football Running Back Sleepers to Target

TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots

ADP 59, RB 21

TreVeyon Henderson is a viable candidate to surpass the current expectations of his ADP, which serves as the prerequisite for a sleeper designation in this article.

TreVeyon Henderson oh my LORD pic.twitter.com/GZACFHyX5V

— Austin Abbott (@AustinAbbottFF) July 28, 2025

Henderson is being drafted as a low-end RB2. However, his capabilities as a three-down back could propel him to numbers that eclipse current projections.

SEE. YOU. LATER. ✌️

TreVeyon Henderson takes it 40 yards for another @OhioStateFB TD 🌰 pic.twitter.com/VVH9I6Njt0

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) September 21, 2024

Henderson operates with a favorable blend of speed, vision, and acceleration that fuels his home run capabilities. He is also a capable blocker and an effective pass-catcher, which expands his prospects of securing a sizable role.

TreVeyon Henderson pass blocking highlights.

Probably my favorite video on the internet.

🎥: @NoFlagsFilm pic.twitter.com/JArjPiHfng

— Savage (@SavageSports_) July 13, 2025

The Patriots seized Henderson in Round 2 of April’s NFL Draft (38th overall), which integrated the explosive rookie into a New England offense that is being resuscitated under Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels.

Henderson's workload will be impacted by the presence of Rhamondre Stevenson, who could operate as the Patriots’ primary back in Week 1. However, Stevenson failed to exceed 4.0 yards per attempt during 2023 and 2024. The fifth-year back also struggled with ball security while registering a league high seven fumbles last season.

Henderson’s big-play potential should converge with Stevenson’s shortcomings to facilitate Henderson’s ascension into an extensive workload, while rewarding anyone who targets him at his ADP.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers

ADP 92, RB 30

Jaylen Warren's ADP is currently contained in Round 8, but he has been presented with a path toward consistent production that transcends his draft position.

Jaylen Warren, Steelers RB1:

1 of 3 RBs to average over 5 yards/touch in 3 straight seasons

his ranks of 48 RBs with 300+ carries since 2022:

#2 in explosive run rate
#6 in yards after contact
#6 in YPC
#6 in success rate pic.twitter.com/u2CHd5jhYa

— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) April 18, 2025

The versatile Warren attained a career-best 49 percent snap share during his first season in Arthur Smith’s offense. He is now primed to perform effectively with his opportunities as a rusher while also operating as Pittsburgh’s pass-catching back.

Warren will share touches with rookie Kaleb Johnson, and both backs should emerge as assets for fantasy managers. However, Johnson is not an effective blocker. He also averaged 7.5 routes per game during his three collegiate seasons, according to PFF, and was limited to 41 targets.

You ever wanna see Jaylen Warren get up for a wheel route from Aaron Rodgers against no defense? pic.twitter.com/0Br7epRP5j

— Brian Batko (@BrianBatko) July 27, 2025

Warren is seventh among backs in receptions (99/3.1 per game) and 10th in targets (121/3.8 per game) since 2023. He also led in avoided tackles per route (0.08) and finished third in receptions per route (0.197) in 2024, according to PFF.

Warren also averaged 10.4 points per game from Weeks 7-17 last season, and can build upon the production that he delivered during that sequence. He delivers standalone value and can function as a high-end RB3 in PPR leagues.

Jaydon Blue, Dallas Cowboys

ADP 123, RB 39

Jaydon Blue‘s numbers were restricted during his first two seasons at Texas (2022-2023), as he operated in a backfield that also contained Bijan Robinson,  Roschon Johnson, and Jonathon Brooks.

JAYDEN BLUE 77 YARDS TO THE CRIB HOOK ‘EM pic.twitter.com/MqGdTEfTgl

— Barstool SEC (@SECBarstool) December 22, 2024

Blue’s career highs were generated in 2024, when he assembled 730 rushing yards (48.7 per game), with his 134 attempts (8.9 per game). However, Blue possesses an enticing blend of athleticism, elite speed, and pass-catching capabilities that should propel him to an ongoing role in the Cowboys’ backfield.

SO NICE THEY HAD TO DO IT TWICE 🤘

Quinn Ewers finds Jaydon Blue for six on the exact same route as their first touchdown 🤝 pic.twitter.com/AhIaxYZyBD

— ESPN (@espn) January 11, 2025

Blue operated with a 25.3 percent target rate during 2024, according to PFF. He also collected 42 receptions and produced six touchdowns as a receiving weapon. He will compete for touches with Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, after both veterans signed one-year deals with Dallas.

Williams should accumulate snaps as a rusher and receiver. However, his workload will diminish if he fails to perform efficiently.

Touches could also be distributed to Sanders, although he may not exceed the career low 34 percent snap share that he registered in 2024.

Jaydon Blue showing off the BURST

📹 @JoeJHoytpic.twitter.com/WWGJamERvn

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) August 4, 2025

The collective presence of Williams and Sanders should not prevent Blue from securing a role in the Cowboys’ reconstructed backfield. His playmaking ability makes him a back to prioritize near his Round 11 ADP.

Tank Bigsby, Jacksonville Jaguars

ADP 125, RB41

Speculation surrounding the projected distribution of touches within Jacksonville’s backfield rotation has continued throughout the offseason, as a large percentage of analysis has focused on Travis Etienne and explosive rookie Bhayshul Tuten.

More from @_John_Shipley:

“Tank Bigsby has been the team's most impressive downhill rusher, while Travis Etienne has been far and away the Jaguars' best and most-used running back in the passing game” https://t.co/ZYDnLO9T6U

— RotoBaller NFL (@RotoBallerNFL) July 31, 2025

However, Tank Bigsby has emerged as a strong candidate to operate as the lead rusher in Liam Coen’s restructured offense. Bigsby was the most efficient member of the Jaguars’ backfield during 2024, even though his season-long production was impacted by health issues.

Tank Bigsby is being described as the “focal point” at RB for the Jaguars so far in camp 🔍

Should he be the 1st Jacksonville RB getting taken in drafts?pic.twitter.com/SwybmD3le0

— PlayerProfiler (@rotounderworld) July 27, 2025

A shoulder injury limited Bigsby to nine snaps in Weeks 2-3, before his numbers surged in Weeks 4-8. Bigsby led all backs in yards after contact (310), and red zone attempts (24), while rising to third in rushing yards (411/82.2 yards per game), and fourth in touchdowns (four).

THEY CALL HIM TANK FOR A REASON.

TANK. BIGSBY.

📺: #INDvsJAX on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/e09rZPXBYK

— NFL (@NFL) October 6, 2024

An ankle injury impacted Bigsby’s statistical momentum from Weeks 10-12, but he still finished 2024 with a 59.3 percent goal-line snap rate and a 61.2 percent short-yardage snap rate according to PFF.

Bigsby is unlikely to capture a consistent role as a receiving weapon. However, his prospects of capitalizing on a significant workload as a rusher deliver your rationale for targeting him in Round 11 of your drafts.

Fantasy Football Running Back Busts to Avoid

Breece Hall, New York Jets

ADP 38, RB15

Breece Hall‘s ADP was entrenched among the top four selections during the 2024 draft season (4/RB2), but he ultimately finished 17th in points per game (15.1). A similar scenario now looms as several factors could prevent Hall from matching the expectations of his current draft position (38/RB15).

Aaron Glenn seems very happy with the makeup of the #Jets RB room with Breece Hall, Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis — and he said this:

"We’re going utilize those guys. If we can get them all on the field at one time, we’ll do that."

— Zack Rosenblatt (@ZackBlatt) March 31, 2025

That includes the constraints that could be placed on Hall’s numbers by a production-inhibiting timeshare with Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis. Head coach Aaron Glenn has already stated his preference for the deployment of multiple backs in New York’s reshaped attack.

Aaron Glenn on some of the ways the #Jets plan to utilize RBs Breece Hall & Braelon Allen:

"I told Breece today that receiving will be an element of his game that we're gonna try & make sure that we utilize, & Braelon, a 240 lbs man that's always falling forward, that's where… pic.twitter.com/wunXUMeTUE

— Harrison Glaser (@NYJetsTFMedia) July 28, 2025

Hall has also failed to replicate the effectiveness that he displayed during his 2022 rookie season. He also established career lows in yards per game (54.8) and yards per attempt (4.2 yards) last season.

Hall did finish fourth in target share (13.8 percent), receptions (57/3.6 per game), and receiving yards (483/23.7 per game), but registered career lows in targets per route run (20.0 percent) and yards per route run (1.3).

Justin Fields will also commandeer rushing attempts, which should negatively impact Hall’s weekly totals in both carries and targets.  There is no reason to bypass Hall completely during your drafts, but you should avoid selecting him at his ADP.

James Cook, Buffalo Bills

ADP 43, RB16

James Cook runs it in 65 yards for the TD and the longest play of his career! 🔥

📺 NBC and Peacock pic.twitter.com/2zDS5hrqzq

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) December 2, 2024

James Cook performed proficiently during 2024 while finishing 11th in points per game (16.7). He also eclipsed 1,000 rushing yards (1,009/63.1 per game), while finishing seventh in yards per attempt (4.9) and 10th in rush yards over expected (167) per Next Gen Stats.

James Cook was one of five running backs with a 7% touchdown rate over the past two seasons with a minimum of 50 carries per @FantasyPtsData.

Most of the touchdown rate leaders were quarterbacks besides:
-Roschon Johnson
-Raheem Mostert
-Devon Achane
-Cook
-Jeremy McNichols pic.twitter.com/VdsVtazxex

— Corbin (@corbin_young21) July 9, 2025

Cook also paced all backs with 60+ attempts in TD rate (7.7 percent), per Fantasy Points Data, while tying for the league lead in rushing touchdowns (16). However, it is last season’s propensity to enter the end zone that elicits concern, as it is unlikely that Cook will replicate last season’s touchdown total.

JAMES COOK. 41-YARD TD.

📺: #BUFvsDET on CBS/Paramount+
📱: https://t.co/waVpO8ZBqG pic.twitter.com/9aiKnkhTjr

— NFL (@NFL) December 15, 2024

That could also doom you for disappointment if you target him at an ADP that should surge in the aftermath of his four-year, $48 million contract extension. Cook's agreement with the Bills does provide Cook with the new deal that he desired.

However, he should operate in the same three-man rotation that restricted him to a 48 percent snap share during 2024. Ray Davis could exceed last season’s 24 percent share, while Ty Johnson lurks as a threat to confiscate targets.

The primary concern for fantasy managers also remains Cook’s arduous task of matching his 2024 production. That should incentivize you to locate a safer option near his draft position.

Joe Mixon, Houston Texans

ADP 71, RB28

#Texans RB Joe Mixon, who is on the non-football injury list, is expected to be out an extended period of time with a frustrating foot injury, sources say.

The Pro Bowler coming off a 1,000-yard season will be reevaluated closer to the season to determine his availability. pic.twitter.com/Rz4FVhrkBu

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) July 26, 2025

Joe Mixon enters his ninth season amid an unpredictable timeline for his recovery from a lingering foot issue. Mixon has been unavailable throughout Houston’s offseason activities and was placed on the non-football injury list on July 23. His status for Week 1 also remains unclear.

“Joe Mixon” and “foot injury.”

Yeah, I’m good this year. My leaguemates can deal with that headache.

— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) July 26, 2025

Mixon’s ADP has dropped from Round 4 in March (44/RB14) to Round 6 (71/RB25) as a byproduct of his unsettled situation. However, there is still sizable risk in considering Mixon at his diminished draft position.

Mixon skyrocketed to second in scoring (26.8) during his first matchup as a Texan last season. He also sustained an ankle injury in Week 2 that sidelined him until Week 6.

MIXON. 45-YARD TD.

📺: #HOUvsDAL on ESPN/ABC
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/Z3C33tMXWN

— NFL (@NFL) November 19, 2024

Mixon resurfaced to finish second in carries (166/20.8 per game) and third in both rushing yards (703/87.9 per game) and points per game (22.2) from Weeks 6-13.

Mixon turned 29 in July and has already accumulated 2,135 touches during his career. The Texans added Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks during the offseason, and both backs could maintain ongoing roles even after Mixon returns. However, you do not need to contend with the challenges of selecting Mixon by simply avoiding him during your upcoming drafts.

More Fantasy Football Analysis