RADIO
Jens Christenson Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 U.S. Open. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or are new to this particular DFS format.
Sam Burns continued his impressive play and tops the leaderboard at 3-under as we head into the weekend. He fired a 2-over 72 in the first round but followed it up with a 5-under 65 in the second round. J.J. Spaun is in second at 2-under, while Viktor Hovland sits in third at 1-under. Adam Scott and Ben Griffin are both tied for fourth at even par. The biggest headline from the first two rounds is Bryson DeChambeau missing the cut after posting a 7-over 77 in Round 2. Oakmont has shown its teeth and we're in for an exciting weekend.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
Tomorrow's forecast indicates that we will experience similar conditions to those we saw in the first two rounds. However, the expected rain in the afternoon should soften things up for the afternoon wave.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Jon Rahm could be closer to the top of the leaderboard if he had the flat stick working. Through the first two rounds, he's been excellent on approach and solid around the greens. In Round 1, he gained 2.04 strokes on approach and 3.19 in Round 2. Around the greens, he gained 0.65 strokes in Round 1 and 0.27 in Round 2. However, he lost 0.67 strokes putting in Round 1 and 2.59 in Round 2. Rahm has only dropped two birdies and one eagle through two rounds, but he could be a lower owned option that has shown he could go low.
See you this weekend, Rory.
Our 2011 champion will make the cut at Oakmont. pic.twitter.com/H5LZtSzJx8
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 13, 2025
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Xander Schauffele began his second round with two consecutive birdies but ultimately finished with a 4-over 74. He has gained strokes off the tee in both rounds, which has been crucial at Oakmont. Additionally, he has improved his putting in both rounds, gaining 0.10 strokes in Round 1 and 0.89 in Round 2. However, what stands out to me is that Schauffele's approach game has surprisingly been lacking. Schauffele ranks seventh in strokes gained on approach on tour this season. He has been solid off the tee, and I think it's worth taking a chance on him finding his approach game tomorrow.
Other Options: Collin Morikawa
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Brooks Koepka has struggled in the past two major tournaments, failing to make the cut. However, he's rebounded with a solid performance, shooting a 2-under 68 in the first round and a 4-over 74 in the second round. Most importantly, Koepka has executed on approach, gaining 1.65 strokes in Round 1 and 2.33 strokes in Round 2. He's also been solid from tee to green, gaining 5.15 strokes tee to green in Round 1 and 1.73 in Round 2. On a difficult course like Oakmont, give me someone who's shown consistency executing their approach shots.
Other Options: Ben Griffin, Russell Henley, Keegan Bradley
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Tyrell Hatton has played consistently through the first two rounds, avoiding major mistakes. He has dropped five birdies and only six bogeys, which is impressive considering that at Oakmont, avoiding bogeys is nearly as valuable as making birdies. Hatton has gained strokes tee to green in both rounds, gaining 0.24 strokes tee to green in Round 1 and 3.82 in Round 2. Hatton has shown he has what it takes to get around difficult courses and consistency is something we'll want in our lineups.
Other Options: Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Robert MacIntyre, Maverick McNealy
It's a bogey for Spaun at the last.
Sam Burns is now the solo leader of the U.S. Open. pic.twitter.com/BmSWsZ4DCb
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 13, 2025
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Thriston Lawrence seems to find his game on courses like Oakmont. He hasn't been great at times this year, he's carded 10 birdies through the first two rounds. He posted a 4-over 74 in Round 2, but he's gained strokes on approach and putting in both rounds. In Round 1, he gained 1.26 strokes on approach and 0.32 strokes putting. He followed that up in Round 2, gaining 0.32 strokes on approach and 0.75 strokes putting. I think Oakmont fits Lawrence's game and he's a great bounce back candidate tomorrow.
Other Options: Rasmus Hojgaard, Jhonattan Vegas, J.T. Poston, Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Matt Wallace hasn't been great, but he's gained strokes on approach and dropped seven birdies through the first two rounds. He gained 1.38 strokes on approach in Round 1 and 2.45 in Round 2. However, he lost 0.38 strokes putting in Round 2 and could be a low owned option who has shown he can get on the dance floor and give himself birdie looks. This is exactly the type of player we're looking for in this section of the article.
Round 2 will resume at 7:30 a.m. Saturday morning following today’s suspension due to weather.⁰⁰Round 3 will be played in groups of two off of No. 1. Tee times will run from approximately 9 a.m. to 3:30 p.m.
How the leader board looks heading into the morning ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/n6vpvCMhJS
— U.S. Open (@usopengolf) June 14, 2025
This lineup is for demonstration purposes only.
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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