RADIO
Ian Christenson's Round 3 PGA DFS showdown slate picks for the 2025 Mexico Open. His top in-tournament DFS lineup picks and top plays for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Hello, Rotoballers! I hope everyone is doing well and is ready for another exciting year of PGA DFS. Showdown has returned for another season on DraftKings alongside the PGA Tour, and we’re here to help guide you, whether you’re looking to continue your journey from where you left off in 2024 or if you’re new to this particular DFS format.
This week, the tour returns to Vallarta, Mexico, for the Mexico Open at VidantaWorld. Aldrich Potgieter showcased his talent with an outstanding round of 10-under 61 in Round 2, taking the lead as the tournament heads into the weekend. He is closely followed by Stephan Jaeger and Brian Campbell, both at 12-under. Although he isn't at the top of the leaderboard, Blades Brown has made headlines by making his first cut in a PGA Tour event at just 17 years old. Additionally, Aaron Rai, Ben Griffin, and Akshay Bhatia are in pursuit of Potgieter, setting the stage for an exciting weekend ahead.
Unlike standard golf DFS, which covers the entire tournament, Showdown focuses on each round as an individual event. It's crucial to find players who excel on approach shots, but it’s also important to make roster decisions that provide ownership leverage by selecting riskier players who may not have been performing their best recently but could have a strong bounce-back round. In other words, this is a sprint, not a marathon.
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Weather, Course Conditions, and Tee Times
VidantaWorld's defenses are the course's length and the wind. However, we have yet to witness any conditions that would make the course more challenging than what we experienced in the first two rounds. The forecast for Round 3 on Saturday looks similar to the earlier rounds, so we can expect to see more low scores.
Round 3 Strategy
The key to success in showdowns is to look for ball strikers who can have a standout putting performance. Having two exceptional putting days in a row is quite challenging, so we should focus on golfers who have been consistent with their approach shots and created birdie opportunities but fell short in converting them.
It’s also beneficial to target players who need to improve their position on the leaderboard, as they often push harder on moving day. Additionally, golfers who have shown some positive form in the first two rounds are great candidates to consider.
Keep in mind that ownership levels tend to decrease as the morning's first tee time approaches, so identifying players who are likely to bounce back is crucial for achieving significant wins.
Making moves in Mexico 🇲🇽
The youngest player in the field, 17-year-old @BladesBrown2026, moves up 17 spots to T14 after a pair of birdies @MexicoOpenGolf.
📺 @PGATOURLIVE pic.twitter.com/PMqcTOcAqR
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 21, 2025
Aldrich Potgieter leads @MexicoOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/W3hJ6kxkU8
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 21, 2025
$10,000+
Favorite Play: Akshay Bhatia continues to demonstrate his exceptional talent. In Round 1, he gained 2.62 strokes on approach and 2.22 strokes in putting. He played even better in Round 2, gaining 3.66 strokes on approach and 3.21 strokes in putting. Bhatia shows no signs of slowing down, and I expect him to maintain his impressive form.
$9,000+
Favorite Play: Ben Griffin is breaking out in 2025, exemplified by his first two rounds this week. In Round 1, he gained 0.31 strokes on approach and 0.63 strokes putting. He continued to elevate his performance in Round 2, gaining 2.15 strokes on approach and 1.47 strokes putting. Overall, Griffin has accumulated a total of 4.87 strokes gained tee to green across both rounds. Expect him to maintain this momentum and deliver in Round 3.
Other Options: Patrick Rodgers
$8,000+
Favorite Play: Alex Smalley is finally putting all the pieces together. He has played exceptionally well at times in his previous starts. Smalley sits at 8-under after two rounds, and surprisingly, he did this while losing 1.75 strokes putting in Round 1 and gaining 0.62 strokes putting in Round 2. His off the tee play has kept him near the top of the leaderboard. Additionally, he gained 1.28 strokes on approach in Round 1 and 0.47 strokes in Round 2. If Smalley can make any improvements to his putting tomorrow, we could see him go low.
Other Options: Nicolai Hojgaard
$7,000+
Favorite Play: Aldrich Potgieter put an impressive performance together in Round 2, shooting a 10-under 61 to take the lead heading into the weekend. In Round 1, he gained 1.24 strokes on approach and 2.05 strokes putting. He improved significantly in Round 2, gaining 3.25 strokes on approach and 4.84 strokes putting. While I don't expect him to replicate today’s performance, it’s clear that he's got the flat stick working well, and striping his long irons. He doesn't seem to be slowing down and will be a key player in most of my lineups.
A course record-tying 61 from the 20-year-old rookie 👏
Aldrich Potgieter leads @MexicoOpenGolf. pic.twitter.com/W3hJ6kxkU8
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) February 21, 2025
Other Options: Jesper Svensson, Erik Van Rooyen, Ryan Gerard, Kris Ventura
$6,000+
Favorite Play: Brian Campbell has been nothing short of impressive in the first two rounds. In Round 1, he gained 1.19 strokes on approach and 1.25 strokes on the putting green. He improved in Round 2, gaining 2.55 strokes on approach and 0.95 strokes putting. Overall, Campbell has been excellent tee to green, totaling of 3.42 strokes tee to green across both rounds. He has positioned himself well heading into the weekend, and I expect him to continue playing well.
Other Options: Matt McCarty, Thriston Lawrence
Guy I'm Playing That You Shouldn't
This will be an every-week addition to my article where I'll pick a golfer who I believe has shown he can go nuclear but has every chance he could dud and should generally be reserved for the largest field GPP tournaments.
Alejandro Tosti has performed just as we would expect from him—unpredictably. He represents the type of golfer who can deliver a slate-breaking score but can also blow up a lineup. In Round 1, he gained 1.45 strokes on approach and 1.52 strokes putting. However, in Round 2, he gained 0.57 strokes on approach and lost 1.47 strokes putting. While he has the potential to deliver an outstanding round tomorrow, he could just as easily disappoint. This unpredictability is exactly what we look for in this section of the article.
A course record-tying 61 from the 20-year-old rookie 👏
Todo listo para la Ronda 2. No te pierdas a este grupo destacado en acción.
See you tomorrow at Round 2! Don’t miss this featured group in action.#MexicoOpenatVidantaWorld pic.twitter.com/CJpkHXtL4v
— Mexico Open at VidantaWorld (@MexicoOpenGolf) February 21, 2025
Showdown Optimizer
The optimizer works nicely with the projected ownership from the model. If you are unsure how to use it, there is a video at the top of the "PGA Lineup Optimizer" page on how to get my projected ownership and/or projected points into your optimizer.
Good luck, and may the odds ever be in your favor.
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