Quarterback Matchups to Target in Week 16 - Michael Penix Jr., Aidan O'Connell, Aaron Rodgers

John's favorite QB matchups to exploit for Week 16 of 2024 - DFS quarterbacks to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These QB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

We're back with one of our last pieces on our quarterback picks for Daily Fantasy Sports for Week 16. We hope to break down some great values at the position, as we believe one of the best ways to pick a good QB is to get a cheap one that returns great value so you can use the rest of your cash on great players at other positions.

Like Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner. Seriously, pick him up. But QB is a fun position because it's so hard to predict -- maybe not so much fun if you put a lot of money on the line, but hopefully we can help you pick the right one. There's a great value pick this week as well, so be sure to read.

We won't make you wait -- he's the first one on our list. And don't worry, this isn't the Penix super-special -- there are other guys too! Let's dive in.

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Michael Penix Jr. ($4,500 DK, $6,000 FD)

Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants

Sure, Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. hasn't started a single game in the NFL yet. But if he had, there would be no way for you to get him this cheap. He'll get a fantastic matchup with the New York Giants, who are just not a good team and don't have a good defense. They give up 17.9 points per game to opposing QBs this season.

Here's every Michael Penix Jr. dropback as a pro:

- 1 dropback vs. SEA in Week 7
- 5 dropbacks vs. DEN in Week 11
- 16 preseason dropbacks vs. SEA https://t.co/6sPGPQB6Tj pic.twitter.com/a1MXnkrqxz

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) December 20, 2024

Here's the tape we do have. It can be difficult to ascertain how he'll do even in an easy matchup. But he was an elite QB in college and a huge talent elevator. He played a massive part in getting wide receivers Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan, and Ja'Lynn Polk drafted where they were in the draft. And they look rougher than the hype they got.

For starters, MPJr has had time to sit and learn behind former starter Kirk Cousins, who's been an excellent quarterback in the league for years now. It's not going well this season, but he's 36 years old and coming off an Achilles tendon rupture. That's a tough injury to bounce back from quickly.

Nick Saban believes Michael Penix Jr. has a higher chance to succeed because he sat behind a veteran ✍️

"I think there's a lot to be said about guys that learn how to be professionals and have respect for development." pic.twitter.com/Enge9F211v

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) December 19, 2024

And that time has likely helped Penix sit back, grind film, and learn as much as possible with little pressure. Former Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban thinks that's a good thing.

It's hard to find predictive stats from college at the quarterback position -- i.e., what numbers can show a QB that will be good in the league. Great production is a first step, of course, but there are plenty of great producers that end up failing in the NFL. But one unheralded stat bodes well for Penix.

Best career big time throw rates from the last two QB classes:

Drake Maye: 8.1%
Jason Bean: 7.4% 🤔
CJ Stroud: 6.4%
Caleb Williams: 6.2%
Michael Penix Jr: 6.2%
Bryce Young: 6%
JJ McCarthy: 6%

Also avoids sacks. Grabbing a Jason Bean pamphlet pic.twitter.com/X8Q53Gziwn

— Football Insights 📊 (@fball_insights) March 15, 2024

Pressure to sack rate is the number of pressures a QB turns into sacks. This is not an offensive line stat -- once the pressure comes, it's the quarterback's responsibility to avoid it. Penix is elite in that area. And this skill translates extremely well to the NFL. It encompasses a signal-callers ability to be mobile, sense pressure, get away from it properly, and not run straight into another defender rushing him.

It's a big "green flag stat" for QBs. Yes, some bad QBs have good P2S rates and some good QBs have bad P2S rates, but sacks are such drive-killing plays in the NFL. Rookies need every edge they can get.

Michael Penix Jr might be the BEST at avoiding sacks of any Quarterback Prospect we’ve EVER seen

his 3.2% Pressure to Sack Rate in 2023 is the second lowest EVER, only trailing…

Michael Penix Jr in 2020 pic.twitter.com/klA883gJZh

— DynastyIM (@dynasty_im) March 19, 2024

Penix might not need more edges, though --  he's pro-ready and carried the Washington Huskies on his back in college. Quarterbacks elevating their pass-catchers is another trait we sincerely believe translates well.

A reminder of what Michael Penix Jr is capable of pic.twitter.com/JAehE6Xchh

— Rise Up Penix (@RiseUpReader) December 18, 2024

We'll give you some other picks, don't worry! But MPJ is our favorite this week.

Aidan O'Connell ($5,100 DK, $6,900 FD)

Las Vegas Raiders vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Aidan O'Connell (knee) doesn't have an injury designation heading into Week 16. He's been cleared, and he'll play.

Raiders HC Antonio Pierce told reporters that QB Aidan O'Connell “should be good to go” to start Sunday vs. the Jaguars.

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 20, 2024

Strangely, he's valued so low because the matchup for him is fantastic - even historically great because the Jaguars' pass defense is historically bad this year.

The 2020 Lions are the ONLY team in the past 25 years with a worse pass defense than this year’s #Jaguars (circled below) pic.twitter.com/1vKeObc7Wc

— Gus Logue (@gus_logue) November 21, 2024

They are one of the worst teams in the past 25 years at stopping opposing quarterbacks from producing efficiently. It's an absolutely nuts matchup. And while the Raiders are a losing team that's already been eliminated from the playoffs and could get the No. 1 overall pick, they have plenty to play for.

Head coach Antonio Pierce wants to keep his job, the offensive coaching staff wants to keep theirs, and O'Connell wants to take the next step in building generational wealth and showing that he's a QB that teams can build around. And this is the perfect opportunity to do it, with both wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (ankle) and tight end Brock Bowers set to play on Sunday.

Only Player with 100+ Targets and ZERO Drops:

👐 Jakobi Meyers pic.twitter.com/BeZUSDtIwF

— PFF Fantasy & Betting (@PFF_Fantasy) December 18, 2024

An elite TE and a WR that just doesn't drop the ball make for a solid core to the team's pass-catching corps. We could even see WR Tre Tucker get a bit more involved. And the team should prefer to pass the ball, as they're the worst rushing team in the league. It may not be a very high-scoring game, though, with JAX sending out QB Mac Jones to start.

Still, he's cheap, and that's the main draw of him. Decent QBs with solid weapons in insanely good matchups for very cheap cash prices make a lot of sense to bet on.

Aaron Rodgers ($5,600 DK, $7,300 FD)

New York Jets vs. Los Angeles Rams

We (me) had Rodgers as one of our picks last week. He was available for cheap and going against the aforementioned Jags. All he did was throw for 289 yards and three touchdowns and rush six times for 45 yards. If you followed our advice on him, you probably had a great day.

Davante Adams : 9 catches for a season-high 198 yards, 2 TD's & a 2-point conversion on 12 targets (Everything he got happened in the 2nd half) pic.twitter.com/UU1MJa89ZL

— Lee Harvey (@MusikFan4Life) December 15, 2024

We love how his chemistry with WR Davante Adams is coming back to life. DA had a career day in Week 15. The Rams present a tougher challenge since they're better at getting pressure, but their pass defense has been very suspect all season. Fellow wideout Garrett Wilson and Adams form a duo of mismatches for LA's secondary.

We've seen receivers like Jaxon Smith-Njigba (seven catches, 180 yards, two TDs), Marvin Harrison Jr. (four catches, 130 yards, 2 TDs), and Jauan Jennings (11 receptions, 175 yards, three TDs) have absolute explosions of career days against the LAR defensive backs. If the pass protection can hold up, we could see another huge game for Adams or Wilson or both.

And that will only help Rodgers pad his stats, which he certainly wants to do.

Thanks for reading, and good luck with your DFS contests!

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