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It's almost here! The first round of the 2024 NFL Draft will take place tonight in Detroit, with 32 players set to join their first NFL team after all is said and done.
But those players aren't just being drafted into empty roster spots. The NFL is a zero-sum game. For every new player that joins a team and earns playing time, that's playing time that's lost by a player who is already on that team.
Let's look at five veteran players with the most to lose during the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft. These are players who are likely to see their roles replaced by young players.
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Jacoby Brissett, New England Patriots
The reunion of Jacoby Brissett and the Patriots probably won't lead to Brissett actually doing much quarterbacking for New England. The Pats hold the No. 3 pick in Thursday night's draft, and while there was chatter earlier on in the process that the team could draft Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., it's looking more and more likely that the team goes with a quarterback.
Caleb Williams will be off the board when the Patriots draft, but one of Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye will be there, as will J.J. McCarthy. This is a really deep draft at QB, so New England has to take advantage of that fact and take the best available one here. You don't always get a chance to grab a quarterback, especially in a class like this one.
Brissett could still start some at the beginning of the season, but if he does, it'll be relatively short-lived. He's a really solid journeyman quarterback who can come in and give a team some good spot starts, but he's not the long-term solution for the Patriots.
Darius Slayton, New York Giants
Every year, Darius Slayton seems to find a way to lead the New York Giants in receiving yards. It's happened in four of the past five seasons, including in the 2023 season when Slayton caught 50 passes for 770 yards and four touchdowns.
darius slayton is perennially underrated. would love to see what he looks like next to one of the top receivers in this class pic.twitter.com/c7Wk4AhvtE
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) April 17, 2024
But here's the problem: in the modern NFL, you'd really like your leading receiver to have more than 770 receiving yards. The G-Men have been a no man's land for young receivers, with no player really managing to stand out, even with the team drafting Wan'Dale Robinson and Jalin Hyatt in recent years.
New York will be in line to draft whoever they want between Rome Odunze and Malik Nabers, with whichever rookie they go with instantly becoming the team's leading receiver. Slayton, meanwhile, will slide into a smaller role, and it's possible that one or both of Robinson and Hyatt will take snaps away from him as well. If Slayton leads the Giants in receiving yards again this year, something's gone wrong for the team.
Mike Williams, New York Jets
Like their Meadowlands roommates, the New York Jets are likely to take a wide receiver—or potentially tight end Brock Bowers—in the first round, as the team has the 10th pick in Thursday night's NFL Draft. They could even trade up a few spots to take a receiver ahead of the Bears, who might be interested in adding offensive talent at No. 9 to join rookie QB Caleb Williams.
There are three elite receivers in this draft, so the Jets seem destined to be able to get the remaining one after Harrison and one of Odunze/Nabers are off the board.
Garrett Wilson is locked in as the No. 1 or No. 2 receiver for the Jets and should maintain a sizable role no matter what happens on Thursday, but Mike Williams—who came over from the Chargers in the offseason—will likely see his role reduced. Williams might still be a nice big-body target in the red zone for Aaron Rodgers this season, but it's hard to see him carving out much of a fantasy-relevant role.
Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs added the speedy Marquise Brown in free agency, hoping he could rebound after a career-low 574 receiving yards with the Cardinals in 2023. Brown's ability to get loose in the deep passing game should mesh well with quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
But then came the Rashee Rice situation. It's still unclear how that might impact the Chiefs in 2024, as Rice could wind up playing like normal or could wind up with a suspension. That seems likely to lead to the Chiefs grabbing a wide receiver at the end of the first round.
AD MITCHELL IS A CHIEF TODAY
— Ty (@Iso_Ty_3) April 25, 2024
The two guys most likely to land in KC seem to be Texas teammates Adonai Mitchell and Xavier Worthy. Both are guys who are known for their speed. If the Chiefs go with one of those guys, it could mean that Brown doesn't end up with a monopoly on the deep-ball targets for the Chiefs. He should still have a solid season, but maybe not quite as solid as he was expected to have when he signed in KC.
Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints
Where Brock Bowers will go is one of the biggest questions in this first round. He could go to the Giants or Jets, but it seems more likely he falls into the 10-15 range. The Saints, who pick 14th, would be a great landing spot for Bowers, who has the talent to be a top-five tight end in the NFL.
If New Orleans does go with Bowers, that would mean Juwan Johnson would take a step back. Johnson isn't a monster at tight end, but he's caught 15 touchdowns over the past three seasons for the Saints and finished fifth on the team in receptions last season. He was already sliding down a bit in the pecking order in 2023, but adding Bowers would complete that slide. Johnson would go from being a streaming fantasy TE2 option to being completely off the board when it comes to fantasy football.
Bowers coming to the Saints would also negatively impact Taysom Hill. Bowers can do most of what Hill can do in terms of versatility, aside from throwing the ball. The Saints can design run plays for Bowers just like they do with Hill, with Bowers likely capable of doing more with those touches.
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