RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 205
CURRENT ADP: ~240
ANALYSIS: From a power perspective, Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena's 2023 was a disappointment. In 2022, the rookie belted 22 home runs and had an above-average ISO of .173 in 521 at-bats, but in 2023 the HR total dipped to just 10 and the ISO went to a below-average .118 with 577 ABs.
There were some encouraging signs in 2023 nonetheless, because with his 2022 power came a lot of swing-and-miss. In 2023, the former World Series MVP saw his K% drop from 24.2% to 20.3% (22.7% league average) while Contact%, SwStr%, and O-Swing% all improved, too.
Even though his walk rate remained below average, it rose 74% (on a relative basis) from 3.9% to 6.8%. Additionally, despite seeing his Barrel% drop to 4.0%, his average EV and Sweet-Spot% remained unchanged, so there is hope he can at least land somewhere in the middle power-wise while continuing to improve elsewhere. ATC projections forecast a .261-15-63-74-13 line with a .310 WOBA and 97 wRC+. With an NFBC ADP that stands at 226 overall, Pena won't cost managers much, and there's enough upside to take him earlier, near his RotoBaller rank of 205 overall.
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