RADIO
The 2024 NASCAR Cup Series season is finally here. Sure, we had the Clash and then the Duel races, but this is when things really start to count. The big one. The Daytona 500.
This is a race that's heavy on the drafting and heavy on the crashing, so there's a lot more uncertainty when it comes to lineup building. The only real strategy is to target some place differential drivers and hope they don't crash. This race is like a lottery ticket, whereas most races are like poker, if that makes sense. A good DFS player can win a lot of money in NASCAR DFS, but Daytona is one of the places where it doesn't really matter how "good" you are at lineup building.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for the Daytona 500 on DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 2/19/24 at 4:00 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Ryan Blaney
Starts 32nd - DK: $9,800, FD: $13,500
Ryan Blaney, the 2023 Cup Series champion, starts way back in 32nd. He's definitely a chalky play and you may want to pivot off him to someone like Kyle Larson in GPPs, but he's a great head-to-head play because of the place differential upside.
Ryan Blaney says that today is worse than yesterday as far as soreness in his neck, and back following the crash in the Duel. He says he'll be fine to race tomorrow and/or Monday. #NASCAR
— Toby Christie (@Toby_Christie) February 17, 2024
Blaney has finished in the top 10 in seven Cup Series races at Daytona, a 41.2% rate. That's solid. He was eighth in last year's Daytona 500 and has led laps in four of his last five starts at this track. He has one victory here, winning the summer race in 2021. He also has a pair of runner-up results.
Kyle Busch
Starts 34th - DK: $9,700, FD: $10,500
Kyle Busch is another expensive place differential play who'll be present in a lot of lineups this weekend. Feel free to fade him for that reason if you want, but there just aren't a ton of top drivers who have the PD upside that he and Blaney carry.
Busch fires off from the 34th position. He's never won the Daytona 500, but he did win the summer race here back in 2008. He's led laps in his last five Daytona starts in the Cup Series starts here and has recorded a top 10 in three of the last four Daytona races.
Brad Keselowski
Starts 16th - DK: $9,000, FD: $11,000
While place differential is king here, that doesn't mean you need to exclusively play drivers starting at the rear. There's definitely some value in the guys starting in the 11-20 range, because they're likely going to go underutilized in DFS this weekend.
Something to watch for in the 2024 Daytona 500
If Denny Hamlin leads the most laps, it’ll be the 5th time he’s done so in the race, more than anyone in history.
If Brad Keselowski leads the most laps, it’ll be the 3rd straight year he’s done so, the longest streak in history. pic.twitter.com/qD2EJBaLeg
— Trey Ryan (@TreyRyan99) February 17, 2024
Brad Keselowski has never won the Daytona 500, but he's won the summer race once plus has six victories at Talladega, a track that drives pretty similarly to this one. I love Keselowski this weekend, both in DFS and in betting. He's a skilled superspeedway driver who should have a good shot to win this thing.
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Bubba Wallace
Starts 24th - DK: $8,500, FD: $9,800
There just simply aren't many drivers better at Daytona than Bubba Wallace, even though he's yet to win here in the Cup Series. In 13 starts, he has just four top 10s, but his average finish of 12.9 shows how he's able to constantly find a way to keep the car clean.
Of those four top 10s at this track, three are second-place finishes, with the most recent runner-up result coming in the 2022 Daytona 500. It continues to be a "close but no cigar" situation for Wallace. Can this be the year he breaks through and gets his first Daytona victory?
David Ragan
Starts 40th - DK: $6,500, FD: $4,500
It's been a while since we've seen David Ragan in a car this good. The journeyman driver made four starts for Rick Ware Racing last year, but this time around he returns to Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing, the team he started his Cup Series journey with way back in 2006. It's unclear if he'll get additional starts in the No. 60 car later in the year or not, but this is his best chance in a long time to get Cup Series win number three.
Final prep for the #Daytona500 is complete and the @BuildSubmarines Mustang is ready to roll! pic.twitter.com/VdKotmIC7u
— David Ragan (@DavidRagan) February 17, 2024
Of course, winning will be tough considering Ragan starts way back in 40th. When he won at Daytona in 2011 for Roush, he didn't face that kind of an obstacle as he started fifth. You probably don't want to bet on Ragan to win this one, but he's a perfect value play in DFS because of the place differential upside. If he's kept this car clean by the end of the race, he'll be in line for a huge fantasy day.
Todd Gilliland
Starts 31st - DK: $5,500, FD: $5,000
There was big news this week for Front Row Motorsports, as it was announced the team was working with Penske now and is getting Tier 1 support from Ford. Suddenly, Todd Gilliland and this No. 38 team have a chance to do some intriguing things.
Of course, that doesn't necessarily matter at Daytona. Once we get to the intermediate tracks, we'll get a better sense of what Gilliland can do in normal conditions. As far as this week goes, he's a strong play not because of FRM's improvements, but simply because the Fords have looked strong and he offers a lot of place differential upside.
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